Race 1 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m):
Small but competitive field of improving sprinters to get us underway. Forgiving of metro three-year-old 4. Good Lieutenant who failed to hit the line in heavy ground third-up, but much better placed back on the bigger track. Bolted in his maiden here two starts ago when stayed well off the fence and powered down the middle. Races best when he can get to the outside, and gear change is significant.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for progressive filly 1. Amnesty who tracked the speed second-up before going home best to win in that same last start as the top selection, although seemingly not as effective on dryer ground. Keep safe rival Warwick Farm filly 3. Shezanalister who hit the line hard as a well backed favourite in heavy ground first-up in a weak BM 58. Watch the betting on stablemate mare of the top selection 5. Miss Hoff who resumes off three improving trials from the inside draw.
How to play it: Good Lieutenant to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):
Back in class over a furlong further, and very keen on home track filly 3. Miss Thatcher resuming for her second prep off a 35 week break. Comes to hand sharply, and reportedly has been working well for some time.
Dangers: Rival local 1. Wanaroo is a shade over the odds third-up dropping back from an even effort in a tougher BM 70 at Canberra; while 6. Ulysses Blue is right in the mix off a fast-finishing debut win in heavy ground when backed from a high of $5.00 into $3.90, and is bred to get much further. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Miss Thatcher to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m):
Lightly raced and speedy five-year-old 5. Master Joe rates a mile on top shooting for consecutive wins on his home track second-up. Was dominant from the front here in heavy ground, carries the same weight, and a middle barrier gives the jockey an option to stay closer in or scout wider if the pattern is going that way. Scratched from the opener to run in this, and the main market rival went to Muswellbrook instead on Sunday.
Dangers: Honest chaser 3. Beau Rock drops in class and draws to stay well off the fence; and local mare 2. Moon Reader back from provincial level third-up with a 3kg claim can run into the minor money.
How to play it: Master Joe to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):
Tricky middle distance maiden, with little separating a few of these all coming via the same last start formline. Confident lightly raced home track three-year-old 4. Kenichi can find his best second-up after dropping out here fresh when backed in from an each-way price. Took on better fields in two runs late last year, and drew far inferior inside ground here 10 days ago. Much fitter now staying at the distance, and importantly drawn to get to the outside this time.
Dangers: Tough local 5. Quizy was only fair to the line in that same country maiden here fourth-up; while both lightly raced South Coast mare 8. Arancione who made up some ground from the back at big odds; and 11. Hotlips Houlihan who ran home late into a place; come out of that same race.
How to play it: Kenichi to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (900m):
Back we come to the short course, and they're all chasing well touted metro filly 7. Explosive Torpido who debuts after a false start. Was heavily backed and all set to rumble in a Showcase meeting at Wagga a month ago before being scratched at the barrier, and stable has taken its time since via a recent forward trial. Bred to run time, and as long as she jumps clean from a wider draw is the clear one to beat, especially with the main early market rival preferred at Muswellbrook on Sunday.
Dangers: Keep safe, honest four-year-old 1. November Rhythm who draws to roll forward second-up off an eight week spell; while Deep Field filly 6. Deephar who won a trial here; and 10. Riva D'Amor reloading with important gear changes six weeks after a plain debut; both go in the exotics.
How to play it: Explosive Torpido to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1300m):
Plenty of chances in this battle, and no better value than tough home track four-year-old 3. Charlemagne who can go back-to-back deep into his prep. Ran home well against similar opposition two starts back before weaving through the field and finishing best for a dominant win here in heavy ground. Sneaks down another 1kg after the junior rider's claim, and is reliable in all going. Has a 50 percent win rate from four starts over this trip.
Dangers: Hard fit local 5. Hello Jack will be very tough to get past if he controls the race up front from a wider gate. Shooting for three on the bounce after bolting in a weaker CL2 three weeks back. Watch the betting on 1. Trooper Knuckle resuming under a big weight, but comes to hand quickly; while 2. Cool Lad heads the rest fourth-up.
How to play it: Charlemagne to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 7 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):
The maidens bring us home, and like progressive metro filly 4. Dolly Bird who can pounce third-up in weaker company. Hit the line late in a smarter provincial maiden 18 days ago, and peaks in fitness here over a furlong further.
Dangers: Emerging two-year-old colt 11. Kiribati is a clear threat if he starts here instead of Bathurst. Has to get across okay from the wider draw, although drawn out is usually a plus here late in the day. Comes through that same Hawkesbury race as the top selection when leading for a long way. Gap to the rest headed by stablemate filly to the main fancy 8. Single Attraction improving at her second start; while 5. Rico Suave (also accepted at Bathurst) who finds a thinner race fourth-up; and 14. Newsletter resuming off a very quiet trial; both go in exotic bets.
How to play it: Dolly Bird to win
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R3 5. MASTER JOE
R7 4. DOLLY BIRD
BEST VALUE:
R6 3. CHARLEMAGNE
