Race 1 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):
We open with the provincial-based maidens over the mile on a surface that continues to firm up, and there are several chances. No better value, though, than lightly raced Dundeel three-year-old 4. Global Deel who can run a mighty race first-up for the new stable. Has been fitted for this trip with an impressive trial win over 1250m.
Dangers: Bottomweight, and the only two-year-old in the field, 12. Runwiththetide is trained on the track, and can figure third-up 13 days after holding his ground okay in metropolitan company. Frustrating filly 11. Yamba's Award is proving very costly having gone under as a short-priced favourite in her last three. Will appreciate getting back on a bigger track with an edge in fitness, but looks under the odds from the outside draw. Include home track mare 9. Justela up in distance at her third start; and improving filly 8. Doroskaya fourth-up; in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Global Deel each way and box exacta 4,11,12
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):
Keen to back lightly raced So You Think three-year-old 5. Smart Legend first-up and returning as a gelding. Tuned up with two progressive trials, thrashing his rivals by nearly five lengths over 1050m in the latest.
Dangers: Big watch on 1. Afterboomer who hit the line well on debut at Newcastle. Keep safe too 7. Kapunda who draws the fence resuming for a leading city stable, and has won both lead-up trials. At bigger odds, watch the betting on Toronado four-year-old 2. Corio Rocky on debut as a gelding behind two steady trials; while 8. Sinner second-up off a seven month spell; heads the rest.
How to play it: Smart Legend to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 3 MIDWAY CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):
Over the same distance here, like the placement and speed map for talented provincial four-year-old 2. Sir Kerm who resumes behind a quiet trial. Beat a smart one on debut last spring before being competitive enough across generally deeper fields, and should position up just off the speed with cover.
Dangers: Naturally, progressive and dominant third-up maiden winner 3. Stars And Bars is a threat despite coming back a little in trip; while 1. Moorestown back in class second-up, with blinkers going on; home tracker 4. Septime first-up with gear changes behind a forward trial; and lightly raced filly 7. Selfless Act who also resumes; can all run into the minor money.
How to play it: Sir Kerm to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 2YO MAIDEN HCP (1400m):
The babies step out now in what shapes an open affair. Really liked the closing run from Toronado colt 8. Sly Boots hitting the line at wagga second-up after a slow start. The extra furlong is right up his alley, and can progress into this for leading Randwick yard.
Dangers: Plenty of them, but Godolphin colt 5. Mogwai (also accepted for Canterbury on Wednesday) by Epaulette is an obvious huge watch on debut after three trials. At bigger odds, don't rule out city colt 1. Flying Trapeze third-up coming out of that same country race as the top selection where he finished under a length from the winner; while 2. Cap Ferrat reloading 11 weeks after an average run in the Group 3 Black Opal at Canberra; and Nicconi gelding 6. Nicconium on debut in blinkers behind two progressive trials; both go into all exotic plays.
How to play it: Sly Boots to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 2YO MAIDEN HCP (1400m):
You rarely see back-to-back races for the two-year-olds at the provincials, and this looms as one of the toughest on the program. Settled on So You Think metropolitan colt 4. Glad You Think So on debut at big odds in blinkers. Has progressed nicely in three spaced trials, and with good speed on here, he can settle back & hit the line with venom.
Dangers: Watch the market closely around Northern Hemisphere-bred colt 6. King Colorado who has been given four weeks since a fair closing run on debut in a strong maiden, and will relish dryer ground. Similar approach with well-bred 1. Ashfall, a colt by superstar The Autumn Sun who has been readied with four trials across three months. Another one by The Autumn Sun, 3. Cape Size gets winkers on five weeks after a plain debut at Warwick farm. Another city visitor, 11. Evelyn May is also in the mix after finishing just behind the placegetters in that same Wagga race as the top selection in the previous.
How to play it: Glad You Think So Each Way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1400m):
Plenty of chances in this too headed by improving metro three-year-old 7. Surfers Royale who is ready to win this prep fourth-up if he starts here rather than Canterbury Wednesday. Hit the line well in a provincial BM 64 two starts back before ony holding his ground in a strong country CL2 after doing plenty of work from a wide gate. Drawn to get a softer run here, and sneaks down a little further in the weights.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for 9. Catapult who hasn't won for a while, but hard fit for this trip and banging on the door after twice attacking the line late in BM 64 provincial class. Small gap to the rest starting with 1. Cuban Granchico who won a similar race here two starts back before struggling in tougher city grade. At bigger odds, both 6. Zouologist emerging from some handy country formlines; and 8. All Machiavellian deep into his prep; can run into a place.
How to play it: Surfers Royale to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):
Another very tricky affair, but confident, lightly raced and UK-reared six-year-old 1. Sidereal can return with a bang for his second Australian prep after a 17-month absence. Beautifully bred by Galileo out of an Oasis Dream mare, and prepared for a big return winning both recent trials up to 1250m.
Dangers: Much improved filly 10. Allasandra draws the inside fourth-up, and comes off a smart Midway maiden win a month back. Keep safe too 5. Resistable who has been in and around the money in four runs this prep; while impressive first-up maiden winner 8. Always In is the clear best of the rest.
How to play it: Sidereal to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1600m):
It doesn't get any easier in the last over a mile. At the big value, like underrated metro filly 12. Miss Faberge (also accepted for Canterbury) who had little or no luck from well back at Wagga over the carnival 18 days ago. Drops significantly in weight for this, and had previously tackled Listed company over the border. Can settle back here and produce a withering finish, with the winkers coming off.
Dangers: Consistent 6. Reginald is again fairly well placed coming off a strong win in similar company at Wyong, although goes up 2kg. Must respect tough and consistent three-year-old 4. Iron Man, despite drawing wide, although he may also go to Canterbury on Wednesday; while 1. Flashing Steel who won here third-up; and 10. Noble Beauty with some weight relief third-up; can both pump plenty of value into exotic returns.
How to play it: Miss Faberge each way
Odds and Evens: Evens
BEST BETS:
R2 5. SMART LEGEND
R3 2. SIR KERM
BEST VALUE:
R6 7. SURFERS ROYALE
