Brad Gray's tips for Royal Randwick (Saturday)

Brad Gray's Tips

KIRKEBY.
KIRKEBY. Picture: Martin King / Sportpix

Race 1 - 11:35AM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. Ningaloo Star presented like the winner in Midway company first up but couldn't reel in Hard To Say. The race shape didn't suit with those on speed fighting out the finish. The mare showed a lovely turn of foot between the 400-200m. That should top her off perfectly for this second up assignment and despite having had two trials this time back ahead of her return, instead of one, she does have a history of improving with the run. She won second up last campaign, having settled outside of the leader. That looks another key to this race, the ability to race handy as there doesn't look to be a lot of speed on paper. With Boss the likely leader, there looks to be a spot outside of the lead up for grabs. If she lands there, she'll prove hard to beat.

Dangers9. Eyeque has also shown in the past that he is capable of racing closer. Like the way he found the line behind Mogo Magic first up. The speed came out of the race in the middle stages and we've seen Smashing Eagle frank that form line since. Eyeque is still lightly raced too. 3. Backrower may prove to be the best horse in the race but he faces no easy task first up from the outside barrier. Returns a gelding and has form around Osipenko and Manzoice. 4. Vindication maps to get the run of the race again and also comes through the Mogo Magic race. Was back slightly in trip three weeks ago. 16. Super Bright is always around the mark in this company while look for 2. Cheerful Legend and 14. Twice As Special to be closing off late.

How To Play It: Ningaloo Star WIN

Race 2 - 12:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Manzoni has quickly settled into life at Moruya with Natalie Jarvis having formerly been trained by Godolphin. The four-year-old has had three starts for his new yard for two wins and a second. That second was first up at Forbes where he came from the tail to run the winner to a narrow margin at the finish. Drawn barrier 1 on Saturday he can settle much closer in the run. There is a query regarding the depth of his form lines but at least we know he'll get the right run and be strong late having won out to 1200m in the past. That looks key as this shapes to be high pressure with plenty og speed drawn wide. The prospect of a soft track holds no fears either. Appeals at double figure odds in a wide open Highway Handicap.

Dangers7. Miss Kirribilli looks hard to beat. Just worried about her late strength at the end of 1100m in this company first up for 38 weeks. She has undergone bone chip surgery since she last raced but looked sharp winning a recent trial. Matthew Dunn hasn't taken long to reclaim his crown as the 'Highway King'. He is represented by 1. Derry Grove here, coming off an all the way win at Ipswich. Looks to have returned well, albeit the form through that race hasn't stacked up since. 2. Sungblue contests his 10th Highway on Saturday. He is rarely far away. Maps well and the soft track offsets the 1100m query. It's probably as short as he wants it. 12. Rumours Abound is untapped but draws awkwardly.

How To Play It: Manzoni EACH WAY

Race 3 - 12:45PM GOLD COAST TURF CLUB TROPHY (2400 METRES)

1. Kirkeby has plenty of weight to carry but he perhaps won't have to do much more than last start to get away with this. And that's despite being beaten four lengths by Verona. It was an exceptional win from that mare. There were huge gaps back through the field with Kirkeby holding off Aristonous to run second. The six-year-old carried 61kg there after the claim. He doesn't having a claiming jockey on top this week with Chris Waller instead opting for Nash Rawiller. Prior to last start, Kirkeby finished a touch too well for So United which was on the back of a second to Manbehindthemoney. Long story short, the stayer is holding his form well at the moment which puts him in the finish again. Maps to get the run of the race.

Dangers11. Awesome Wonder is dangerous right down in the weights. The last time she raced in Saturday company she was bitterly disappointing but it was simply too bad to be true. She bounced back thereafter in Melbourne out to 2400m. Last start she had the excuse of being vulnerable late having made an early move. 3. Intuitu relished getting out to 2400m at Eagle Farm last start. He beat Brown Thomas and Oz Legend, two horses we've got a good handle on in Sydney. If he can build off that win though, which he should being fourth up now, he's well placed to go back-to-back. 2. Martial Eagle was no match for Shaiyhar at Flemington last start but the winner looks to be going places. Gets out to 2400m for the first time in Australia.

How To Play It: Kirkeby WIN

Race 4 - 1:20PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

17. Principessa creates plenty of interest at double figure odds. She'll be lining up on the four day back up if trainer Joe Pride elects to run, and if she does, that says she has come through the run exceptionally well. The mare won that race on Wednesday in good style too. Once she was angled into the clear she dashed quickly to put her rivals away. The five-year-old drops in weight and loves getting her toe into the ground. Her record on soft tracks now reads 10:2-5-3. This is harder again stepping into Saturday company but the conditions, likely speed on paper with the big field and the prospect of being allowed to balance up and attack the line over the Randwick mile could see her take holding out.

Dangers15. For Victory may have been a little flattered last start given that the leader Wategos ran along out in front but the import's run there suggested a first win in Australia is just around the corner. He did little at Sandown prior. The lightly-raced four-year-old was placed in Listed company out to the mile in France on a soft track at just start three. 10. Foujita San resumed as a gelding first up over 1200m and was well backed in Saturday company on the back of a great trial. He wasn't sharp enough for the sprint trip. Gets straight out to the mile second up. Like the way 14. Amor Victorious quickened from in front to win a similar race to this last start. The in form 9. Queenmaker returns after a freshen while 13. Ivan's Hero should at least hold his form.

How To Play It: Principessa WIN

Race 5 - 1:55PM MOSTYNCOPPER SHOW COUNTY QUALITY (1200 METRES)

10. Extremely Lucky was scratched last Saturday after reportedly scoping poorly on race morning. His trials have been exceptional ahead of his return. That still seems like an understatement. We don't really know where this five-year-old fits into the sprinting landscape at the moment but we'll find out more after the weekend. Suspect he could be about to make an early spring statement though. The way he hit the line to win a Listed race in Adelaide was that of a sprinter destined to charge through the grades. The curiosity on Saturday is resuming over 1200m given that the son of Extreme Choice is yet to win behind 1050m. Throw into the mix that he is 47 weeks between runs and finds a race with very little speed on paper, this is no easy task but suspect he ends the carnival in Group One company.

Dangers1. Buenos Noches has raced in Group One company at his past three starts. He jumped single figure odds in each of them too. Has form around the likes of In Secret, Giga Kick and I Wish I Win. Three of the best sprinters in the country. The four-year-old has trialled nicely ahead of his return and should be able to land in a prominent position by default given the make up of this field. 8. Fender might find himself the default leader. Forgive his first up run when covering ground behind I Am Me. He ran well in this race last year and ran a fast finishing third in the Kosciuszko the last time he tackled the Randwick 1200m. 9. Kalino has the speed to settle handy himself. He has won from outside of the leader in the past and showed first up that he has returned well. 6. Argentia was luckless in the Missile Stakes.

How To Play It: Extremely Lucky WIN

Race 6 - 2:30PM JAMES SQUIRE PREMIER'S CUP (2000 METRES)

7. Hosier looks to get the perfect set up on Saturday. The new recruit for trainer Mark Minervini, having formerly been trained by Kris Lees, tackles the race fourth up, getting out to 2000m and gets a soft track. The seven-year-old excels on wet tracks with his record reading 8:6-0-1 on soft ground. He is winless in seven runs on good tracks. That adds even more merit to his recent second to Barbie's Fox in the Winter Challenge. Jason Collett rode that day and he jumps back on. That run was backed up with a fourth in the Coffs Harbour Cup with 61kg. Gets some weight relief in this company and draws a perfect gate. Should settle down in the first dozen, with the race favourite Fawkner Park likely to be well back in the field.

Dangers: That's the knock on 14. Fawkner Park in the context of his price. No denying that he is a gifted stayer going through the grades at the moment but the 2000m start at Randwick isn't a kind one for those drawn wide. Not sure what happened to 12. Bonny Ezra last start. He was flat third up having run so well in two runs prior. When we all dropped off him last campaign he bounced back to win at big odds. History could repeat here. Reluctant to let him go on the back of one poor showing. 1. King Frankel ran third in the G1 Tancred at WFA over the autumn. He is the class runner. It just comes down to how much early work he is forced to do to sit handy from the wide gate first up. 5. Bois D'Argent has been freshened since running second to Zoumon last start.

How To Play It: Hosier EACH WAY

Race 7 - 3:05PM LAUREL OAK TOY SHOW QUALITY (1100 METRES)

1. Zougotcha was one of the standout three-year-old fillies in what was a stellar crop. Keen to see what she can do as a four-year-old now. Saturday's set up looks far from ideal, drawing wide, giving away weight and being unproven over 1100m. However, she was explosive over 1200m when winning the Silver Shadow Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago over 1200m. In her favour is not only her class but also the speed drawn underneath her. They should rip along out in front setting up for Zougotcha to get last look. James McDonald will just need a horse to track into the straight. Thinking that could be Parisal. Zougotcha has just had the one trial ahead of her return, presumably to keep her fresh. It appears she is being trained like a sprinter this time back.

Dangers5. Cinderella Days comes through the same form lines as Zougotcha and wasn't beaten far by In Secret and Sunshine In Paris first up last campaign. Has trialled well on two occasions and the barrier gives Sam Clipperton, who rode her all last preparation, a couple of options pending the early pressure. 7. Parisal doesn't have that luxury from where she has drawn. It looks problematic. Slick mare though and she is perhaps the best suited to 1100m. Her race could be won or lost in the first hundred or so metres. 8. Queen Of The Ball has been trialling exceptionally well alongside the likes of Alligator Blood and Nature Strip. She too is well placed over 1100m. 4. North Star Lass is capable of better than what she showed over the autumn.

How To Play It: Zougotcha WIN

Race 8 - 3:45PM WINX STAKES (1400 METRES)

2. Zaaki has a brilliant first up record. The nine-year-old rode a fast speed in the G1 All Aged Stakes over this same track and trip first up last campaign and it took Giga Kick to run him down. First and third in that race settled out the back. Suspect that run just took the edge off him as he wasn't able to replicate in his two subsequent runs. Many of his fresh 1400m runs have been among the best in his career. The gamble is whether he can come back again and keep competing at the top level as he gets older. However, he is still lightly raced with 43 starts to his name and his recent Rosehill trial alongside Shinzo suggests that he has come back as well as ever. He has done so well in his work in fact that Annabel Neasham runs him here instead of the Tramway which has been his normal spring kick off point.

Dangers13. Fangirl will be glad to see the back of Anamoe. She ran second to him in three Group Ones over the past year. One of those was in this same race twelve months ago. Will want the track to be on the better side of soft for her to run up to her best. 16. Hinged has raced against Fangirl nine times to date. The ledger is five to four in favour of Fangirl but there isn't as much between them as the market often suggests. Again, Hinged has been overlooked. Has more tactical speed than Fangirl and she loves wet tracks. It would be some training performance from Kerry Parker to have 1. Think It Over fighting out the finish after a 71 week lay off but he's too genuine to dismiss. 3. Mo'unga has a tricky gate to overcome. 7. Golden Mile looks well set up to bounce back.

How To Play It: Zaaki WIN

Race 9 - 4:20PM DARLEY SILVER SHADOW STAKES (1200 METRES)

2. Kristilli was late to the party in announcing herself as one of the most talented fillies of the season, putting her hand up in the Percy Sykes Stakes at the backend of the autumn. It was a dominant display from the daughter of Hellbent. By all reports she still has her quirks and is still very much a work in progress but the way she closed in the Percy Sykes, putting a couple of lengths on the runner up Tiz Invincible put her alongside Steel City and Learning To Fly as our most talented two-year-old fillies. That performance was on the back of an eye catching effort at the midweeks running on hard into second, where Dipsy Doodle ran third. Dipsy Doodle won her subsequent two starts. James McDonald sticks on Saturday having ridden her in her most recent trial. Still untapped.

Dangers11. Estriella has to build again on what she did at Randwick three weeks ago but confident she will on what we saw there. Loved how she was coming again late with a huge gap back to third. That sets her up well for 1200m. Has a fitness and map advantage over Kristilli. 12. Summer Loving looks a ridiculous price. She is still a maiden but off her runs in the Magic Millions and Golden Gift she isn't entitled to be such long odds. Coincide has won again to frank the form through her first up second too. 10. French Endeavour shouldn't be overlooked either at a price. He should have beaten Bases Loaded on debut where Pier Pressure and August Bloom ran third and fourth and returned with a dominant midweek win. 3. Platinum Jubiliee's second to Cylinder in the Silver Slipper stands out.

How To Play It: Kristilli WIN

Race 10 - 4:55PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Pacific Ruby beat Barbie's Fox at Sandown first up this preparation on a soft track. That was her fifth career win and in BM84 company. Granted she only carried 52.5kg after the claim but Barbie's Fox went on to frank that form a number of times. Pacific Ruby then disappointed at Flemington when sent around a $2.80 chance. Nothing was found in the stewards report. She simply raced flat. Want to forgive her one bad run and respect the placement for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace bringing her to Sydney on the back of a seven week freshen and a soft Cranbourne jumpout. James McDonald is booked, draws perfectly, gets another soft track and comes back in grade. The trade off is the weight but there is enough in the early price to take that gamble.

Dangers7. Time To Boogie has hit a purple patch of form. The speedy four-year-old gelding has returned better than ever. He got control at Randwick over this same trip two starts ago before gapping his rivals. Last start he wasn't able to replicate that but still raced well to be nosed out by Brudenell. Early pressure looks key. 13. Tintookie gets in light slightly up in grade and should appreciate getting her toe into the ground for the first time this preparation. Back out to 1200m looks to suit too.

How To Play It: Pacific Ruby WIN


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