Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1450m)
We start Werris Creek Cup day with an open maiden at set weights. Improving four-year-old 7. You Have To Go comes back in class & depth fourth-up. Has worked home okay in his last two against stiffer country & provincial opposition, and from a softer draw where he can settle a bit closer in the run over 100m further, this is peaking time. Key gear changes are a further sign he's primed to strike.
Dangers: Big watch on 9. Magic Shot who also peaks fourth-up after placing in his last two against tougher opposition. Gap to the rest headed by 1. Boys Cry who will find this easier despite a rise in weight after running home fairly in his last two; while 2. Prince Carlos hard fit well into the prep; and improving mare 10. Zar Queen second-up off a five week break; head the rest.
How to play it: You Have To Go to win
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1200m)
Still with the maidens back 250m in trip, and it shapes nicely for lightly raced five-year-old 2. Count Rollo resuming off a 16 week break for only his third start. Dropped out in a mid year maiden at Kembla and was immediately spelled, but signalled he'd turned the corner with a strong trial on the Beaumont track three weeks ago. Drawn to get a charmed run, and stable is renowned for getting them ready fresh.
Dangers: Watch the betting on debutant four-year-old 1. Invincible Red by Divine Prophet who hasn't been seen officially since a smart trial win in autumn, but has been gelded, reportedly working well, and leading country jockey rides. Honest colt 5. Savoca back from provincial level; and 8. Nikolai resuming behind a quiet trial; can both run into the money.
How to play it: Count Rollo to win
Race 3 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m)
Out to the mile for a good quality and tactical battle. Progressive mare 2. Razzle Dazzle finally gets out to this distance deep into the prep. Finished hard from well off the speed to win a more than handy CL2 two starts back before doing plenty of work from the wide gate under a big weight last time, yet still ran on okay. Drops 2.5kg here 13 days between runs, and is much better suited on a track with a longer run home
Dangers: Keep very safe 1. Hombre Grande who is hard fit, and comes back in trip behind an all-the-way win at Armidale in weaker grade. Blinkers go back on, and he carries only half kilo over the minimum after the jockeys claim. Improving 5. Oodles is also well placed, dropping to the limit weight just nine days after a tough effort at Muswellbrook. Include in exotics both 3. China Grove down significantly in weight after the claim; and 4. Hardyo who won nine days ago in a weaker class.
How to play it: Razzle Dazzle to win
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m)
Another sprinter still emerging is provincial mare 4. Fruit Tingle who can settle back off the speed, and come with a superior closing burst. Hit the line hard from well off the speed over the scamper 900m at Wellington 18 days ago when reloading off a month-long break. Even better suited now getting on to a more spacious track, and she's been in the placings five times from only eight starts.
Dangers: Not much between the challengers, headed by 1. Charge Extra who can peak second-up off a long break, and is drawn to park a bit closer in transit. Similarly, 3. Chandon Star has found a suitable race, second-up off a long spell; while resuming 6. Little Bit Yours and 7. Rose Brae on debut with key gear additions; are both capable of figuring in the minor money.
How to play it: Fruit Tingle to win
Race 5 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m)
Staying at the distance for the restricted male sprinters, and honest five-year-old 1. Hiraishin can go back-to-back third-up off a month-long break. Worked home in similar company late last month when rock solid in the market before finishing best from just off the speed to claim a similar-graded race at Muswellbrook. Has enough tactical speed to off-set the drop in trip only 11 days between runs, and he should again park behind the speed & off the fence.
Dangers: Talented 2. Aquarter can be hard to catch, and will likely have to go a long way back from the wide draw fourth-up. That said, his best is more than good enough to win, and he gets in okay at the weights after the jockey's 3kg allowance. Watch the betting on 4. Tough Case resuming off a lengthy break from a soft draw, and hasn't been seen at the public trials since late July; while provincial-based 6. Captain Wise is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Hiraishin to win
Race 6 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m)
Now for a stronger girls' edition, and progressive 1. Lavish Lady rates narrowly on top aiming to put two wins together, and take her winning strike rate to 33 percent from just 12 starts. Kept chasing from just off the speed against similar opposition at Armidale before a dominant win in weaker company after being freshened a month between runs. Importantly stays at the trip from a handy enough draw, and gets right back in the contest at the weights after young jockey's 3kg claim
Dangers: No doubting 2. Insightful Award has a big claim, fourth-up and five weeks between runs, with a 3kg weight allowance. Was dominant sweeping home to win a similar race at Armidale, and led all the way at her only previous start here to claim the maiden. Keep safe 7. Zoe Shark who led for a long way when fresh, and is nicely placed to roll forward from a low draw, also with a 3kg claim. Both 5. Gerety third-up with blinkers going on; and 6. The Affirmative fourth up from the fence draw; go in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Lavish Lady to win
Race 7 WERRIS CREEK CUP CLASS 1 HCP (1200m)
We close with a very open Cup feature, although honest six-year-old 3. Twentyeightdragons is well suited 3rd-up at the value behind a month-long break, and drawn to get cover. Exploded away to thrash weak maiden opposition by eight lengths two starts back before chasing hard in similar company to miss by a nose over 100m further. That run topped him off nicely for this, carrying only 1kg more after the claim from a softer barrier.
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 8. Leopardi who ran home well second-up on the Beaumont track when not having much luck. Drops in weight from a soft draw, and only needs clear air from the 400m to be right in the finish. Emerging three-year-old 5. Lunartie has strong claims as well after a tough second start maiden win at Scone. Keep safe 4. Cyclone Rupert who did it tough from the draw at Dubbo, and can improve sharply here; while 6. Flying Miracle, 9. Edge Of Midnight and 10. La Mia Via are all knock-our chances who must go through the exotics.
How to play it: Twentyeightdragons each way
BEST BETS:
R5 1. HIRAISHIN
R4 4. FRUIT TINGLE
BEST VALUE:
R3 2. RAZZLE DAZZLE
