Sabalenka seeks Indian Wells title

The WTA hits Indian Wells next week, where Elena Rybakina should be confident as she returns to the scene of her title run 12 months ago which featured her dusting the top two seeds - Iga Swiatek and Arnya Sabalenka - in the semis and final respectively.

ARYNA SABALENKA of Belarus plays a backhand during the Adelaide International at Memorial Drive in Adelaide, Australia.
ARYNA SABALENKA of Belarus plays a backhand during the Adelaide International at Memorial Drive in Adelaide, Australia. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images

Rybakina is ice cold on court and her forehand and backhand are both hit flat, with relentless consistency, depth and speed, allowing her to generate excellent power off both wings. The Russian-born Kazakhstani won Wimbledon in 2022, and has won two events so far this season in Brisbane and Abu Dhabi.

Her level can be up and down though, as evidenced when she lost to unheralded Russian Anna Blinkova in the Australian Open after a historic tie-break that lasted more than 30 minutes.

Swiatek heads the betting and the four-time Grand Slam champion claimed her first WTA title of the year - and her 18th overall – by beating Rybakina in the Qatar final recently. 

Swiatek incorporates a lot of aggressive variety into her game. The fact she plays on the front foot and her game is focused on offense, she is the type of 'all or nothing' player who often who often hits an obscene amount of winners but who can also see the unforced errors pile up on a bad day.

On clay, Swiatek has few peers and will go off a short price again to defend her French Open title in the spring. However, her showing at the Qatar Open will give her confidence, especially as she lost her three matches against Rybakina in 2023.

2023 US Open Champion Coco Gauff will look to build upon her career-best result at Indian Wells - she reached the quarter-finals last year – but Coco does seem to struggle with the unique conditions here.

She is up to World No 3 but has made a rather unspectacular start to 2024 and would love to get things going by winning this event for the first time. A consistent force on tour, Gauff does usually save her best for events on US soil so her draw will be interesting.

Ons Jabeur is popular everywhere she goes. She has now lost back-to-back Wimbledon finals but her drop shots from the baseline and precision forehands up the line mean she will always be box-office.

Jabeur is brilliant on clay, and with her shot-making and spin-heavy game, she should feel comfortable on the slower courts of Indian Wells. For whatever reason it has never happened for her here to date, but she has the game to land a maiden title at 'Tennis Paradise' if the stars align for her.

Don't sleep on Qinwen Zheng either, a youngster who enters the 2024 BNP Paribas Open fresh off the biggest result of her career after reaching the final at the 2024 Australian Open. The Chinese youngster has now cracked the WTA Top 10 and is a player worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks.

Maria Sakkari could be worth an each-way play at fancy prices after back-to-back final and then semi-final finishes at Indian Wells in the last two years. The Greek star does not have the weapons to rely on compared to some of her WTA rivals, but she has bags of experience and loads of bottle when matches get tight.

In terms of a winner, though we fancy Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka returns to Indian Wells after a runner-up finish last year, and ticks plenty of boxes when you are thinking about a bet on the women's event.

Since winning her first major (2023 Australian Open) she is playing with more freedom, and the Belarussian has the power game to dominate here if she is in the mood.

She has now won back-to-back Australian Opens, and was absolutely unplayable at time in Melbourne back in January.

Sabalenka's run to the 2023 US Open Final propelled her to the World No. 1 ranking and underlined how she is a major force on outdoor hardcourts in North America (and not just Down Under).

Her style is characterised by an ultra-aggressive baseline game, and while she can be fragile mentally sometimes due to getting too emotional on court, she is getting better at controlling her emotions at clutch moments. 

Sabalenka is such a fascinating athlete, a raucous mix of power and flamboyance at her best but also someone who is vulnerable at her core. She is also immensely likeable, and came across so well on the recent 'Break Point' Netflix series.

Big game. Big character, and at her best could be too much for everyone here. 

 


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