Ireland sill heavy favourites for Six Nations

England ensured the Six Nations Championship would go down to the wire with a stunning victory over Ireland courtesy of Marcus Smith's last-gasp drop goal last weekend.

Six Nations trophy.
Six Nations trophy. Picture: AAP Image

That win may have got the juices flowing among the Twickenham faithful, but realistically Steve Borthwick's side simply delayed the inevitable ahead of Saturday's climax.

Andy Farrell's men may have missed out on becoming the first back-to-back Grand Slam winners in the Six Nations era, but they just need a draw against Scotland to seal the title – and in practice they could win with a losing bonus point such is their superior points difference over second-placed England.

Ireland are as low as 1/10 for an 11th successive victory against the Scots, who will have few friends following last week's shock 31-29 defeat to Italy, the Azzurri's first home win in the tournament in 11 years.

Last month's 30-21 victory against England is already looking like a distant memory for the Scots and although they have an outside chance of finishing runner-up, their recent record against Ireland suggests they will do well to finish in the top half of the table.

Farrell has kept faith with the same XV that lost in such dramatic circumstances, and in front of a fervent home crowd they are likely to prove too strong for the visitors.

Ireland's last three victories over their rivals have come by at least 15 points and they catch the eye at 9/10 to overcome a 14.5 handicap once again.

Winger James Lowe has scored in all four matches, including a double against England, and is generally 4/6 to make it a full house, although one bookmaker is offering evens on that outcome.

If further evidence were needed, Lowe has crossed the whitewash in his last two appearances against Scotland, both of which came last year, first in the Six Nations and then at the Rugby World Cup.

At a bigger price, Lowe and hooker Dan Sheehan are 15/8 to bag a try. Sheehan had scored tries in his first three games until his run ended at Twickenham, but he may find it easier to breach shell-shocked Scotland, who have made two changes for Saturday, with Stafford McDowall coming in at centre and Ben White taking the scrum-half role.

England's mood may be on the glum side by the time they kick off in the final game of the tournament in France, who have won this fixture three successive times and are generally 4/9 to make it a fourth.

That said, Les Bleus have been underwhelming during the course of the Six Nations. Battered at home by Ireland, the French could only draw at home to Italy, who would have earned a first victory in Paris if Paolo Garbisi had slotted an injury-time penalty between the posts.

Narrow wins against Wales and Scotland suggest the value lies with England at 9/4, even if they take to the field knowing the title is out of reach.

Elliot Daly replaces Immanuel Feyi-Waboso on the wing in the only change to the side that beat Ireland, and should Ireland slip up in Dublin you can rest assured this team will be pumped up for the challenge in Paris.

In the first game of the day, Wales and Italy clash in Cardiff hoping to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon.

The troubled Welsh have lost all four matches, prompting head coach Warren Gatland to make four changes for the Italy test, with George North returning at centre for his final international appearance.

His recall may not be enough though, and Italy, who have beaten Scotland, drawn with France and lost narrowly to England, look the play at almost 5/2.

North is 3/1 to sign off by crossing the line in what will be an emotional day for Wales' second all-time try scorer behind Shane Williams.

 


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