Aztec State sits at the front of betting in race eight and goes up as the Melbourne Mail's best bet on the card with 2000m tipped to suit. 

Aztec State would not have looked out of place in Adelaide's Guineas across the border but what may well have kept him at home (other than the step up in trip) was what appeals most about him. 

That is that he is far from the finished product, shaping well without the knockout punch in each of four runs that have followed a winning debut where he beat the handy Roll On High in a hot Bendigo maiden. 

That was enough to have him stamped as one bound for better than this level so that he has yet to really better it must be seen as slightly disappointing. He hasn't thrown it away though, running to that debut rating or close enough in every run and his latest may have been the clearest signal yet that his potential remains fully intact and ready to be delivered upon. 

There he was only edged out by a rival with ratings to match if not upside - one that has run well again since. Fourth and fifth there have also stepped out and won, giving the form a nice warm look, and none left the Heath that day looking the prospect that Aztec State did. 

2000m should be well within range but the real plus for his stepping up in trip comes from the fact that the opposition thins. Only Gates has a rating to match (in fact slightly better) Aztec State but he is struggling to recpature prior peaks where Aztec State looks ready to leave them behind.

For an each-way play we will roll on to the last where we need to be forgiving but can get compensation from Rheinberg who we put up last time only to see him throw up an out-of-character shocker. 

Prior to that he had been remarkably consistent and his fresh run, while in a slowly run race, packed some punch with formlines reaching deep into some promising spots. 

The formline that readily comes to hand here is Rheinberg's beating of race favourite Chorlton Lane over the course and distance last prep and in fast time. There is an easy case to be made leveraging off that and we are happy to take it. HE's good enough and so bad last time that it can be hurled into the 'to bad to be true' bucket. 

THE MELBOURNE MAIL 

Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #2 Aztec State @ $4.80 with bet365*

Each Way Play: Race 10 #6 Rheinberg @ $9.00 with bet365*

*Prices correct as of 5:00pm AEST 2/5