Much like last year it looks a fairly weakish renewal of the Cup, but that just seems to be the way this race is going.
Gerald Ryan’s Ironstein lines up as favourite for this ahead of Michael Moroney’s Garud, Pat Carey’s Angola and Queensland duo Brave Ali and Grey Assignment.
And I’m prepared to take Ironstein on in what looks like a bit of a lottery.
He has to carry the top weight of 58kg today, a feat that’s been achieved once since the race was first run in 1935 – Sharply lugged 58.5kg, nine stone three pounds under the imperial system, when winning the race in 1961.
On top of that, Ironstein hasn’t won since November of 2011, a whopping 952 days ago.
He looks the best horse in this race, but that’s two very significant factors going against him today.
Angola looks to have finally found a winnable looking race, and he should go forward and take catching on this tight-turning track.
Grey Assignment looks to have been aimed at this race, while High Aims and Garud are both up from Victoria and capable in a race like this.
As much as I’d like to see Ironstein win this, I think there’s a bit too much against him. I’ll be working right around the $4.20.
There’s a couple earlier in the day that look ready to win.
Mick Price’s Jazz Song has been bereft of luck in two starts in Queensland this campaign, and looks ideally placed in the Gai Waterhouse Classic to grab a deserved win.
She was held up until the 250m in the Queensland Guineas (1400m) two weeks back before motoring home to finish less than half a length off Sir Moments.
The form held up strongly last weekend with Sir Moments winning the Daybreak Lover.
The run prior she was beaten 3.6L by Srikandi in the Glenlogan Park Stakes (1350m) when again blocked for a run on straightening.
Experienced Queensland hoop Jim Byrne takes the ride today and he’s ridden plenty of winners at Ipswich in his time.
He should make sure this classy filly gets clear air when she needs it.
Jazz Song’s up against the older mares today but she’s well weighted and has proven very consistent all campaign.
The $4 on offer looks very juicy at this point.
There’s one at a price even earlier in the day, the Benchmark 85 Ipswich Mile which looms as another dartboard job.
Peter Sexton’s Extreme Mover is currently quoted at $14 and on first glance that looks well over the odds.
He was unlucky in the Toowoomba Cup (2150m) 13 days ago but still managed to get within a length of talented New Zealander Military Move.
That was his fifth minor placing in a row, and now he drops back to the mile over which he’s a four-time winner.
There’s not much between the top half dozen in this, and the Timeform figure he produced in that Toowoomba Cup has him on par with the top few here.
Magic In Motion is a talent and she loves this track but she’s proven a shade inconsistent all the way through.
Caballo Rapido got home well at Doomben last start, but he’s not as well suited to this track.
Big Wheels is also well favoured off a strong win at Toowoomba last start but he takes another step in grade today and will need things to go right.
The $14 about Extreme Mover should give you an excellent each-way run for your money.
BANKER: Race 5 No 5 Jazz Song @ $4
BET OF THE DAY: Race 3 No 8 Extreme Mover @ $14
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7 No 2 Ironstein @ $4.20
