Unfortunately it seems (for now) the only chance to back Aft Cabin was first up, as he's set to go around deep in the red here, and if he justifies that quote, a similar one seems likely in the Randwick Guineas.

While some case could be made for the NZ colt Pier to measure up, he would need to run a clear new peak to beat Aft Cabin and we'll have to watch on there.

After a bit of deliberation, I've landed on my 'best' of the day as Midwest in the last. He's bursting to win and the form out of his last race is hot. He split Mariamia and Spacewalk there with both of those winning at their next outing, the former in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes (1200m).

By Timeform's measure he actually rated a few pounds below what he did at Morphettville prior when giving away 7.5kg to Philonize and on the R&S weight adjusted ratings he comes out on top.

We'll be onto a firm deck come Saturday which plays into his favour and Tim Clark going aboard after apprentices have ridden him at his past two looks a key booking. I loved his fight when challenged last start and his speed figure was close behind the other key form race for this.

That was contested by Andermatt and Kote, the former of which has talent but his peak figures are all on heavy tracks and the latter who stuck on okay first up but doesn't have me convinced yet.

We'll make Midwest the best but the race I'm actually keenest to play in is the Listed Paramatta Cup, Race 7 on the card.

I'll be backing two horses in the race but the value appears to lie with Sacramento, who won this race in 2021 when absolutely flying but resumed with an acceptable run over a mile, working home okay behind Banju and running to a figure of 101.

With peaks over 110 and a winner of 3/6 when second up, including ratings of 109 and 105 at his most recent second up efforts, he either leads or takes the box seat and his best form should be highly competitive.

I think the horse to beat is Irish Legend who has won his past two over 2000m when racing on the speed. He's shown plenty of heart and ran right up to his peak of 102 last start. On our weight adjusted ratings he rates highly with 53kg and will take plenty of getting past.

SYDNEY SPECIALS

Bet of the day: Race 10 #6 Midwest @ $3.2

Value plays: Race 7 #11 Irish Legend @ $5 and #2 Sacramento @ $12