DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP
Tommy conspired to keep the drought alive last week as he refused to walk through the door left open by Nicolai Hojgaard. Once again however, there was solid profit on offer to trade out on the perennial underachiever.
We'll be treated to some world class golf on Australian turf over the next fortnight with a pair of events attracting some decent talent to our shores. First up is the Australian PGA with Cam Smith leading a field of the best Aussies and a handful of Euro hopefuls around his home track at Royal Queensland.
The 7,135 track isn't particularly difficult off the tee, offering wide landing areas and little in the way of rough for wayward efforts. Things get a little trickier on approach as the large greens are well bunkered. With not a huge amount to trouble players tee to green, this will likely be won on the greens, where there is none better than Cam Smith in the field.
BETTING MARKETS
Cam Smith is a huge favourite here although comes in a little longer than in his last appearance, no doubt due to the extra quality that has made the trip South. Roughly a quarter of all flows have been traded on the mulleted local boy and he's come in from early money at 6s to his current mid-5s price.
Min Woo is also trading low however has drifted as the money has come for Smith. Strong flows for Cam Davis have seen his price continue to drop and he currently sits a clear third favourite ahead of Adam Scott and Joaquin Niemann who has been the big mover in to $16 after seeing volume around the $20 mark early.
The model thinks Smith is much too short here most likely due to its poor view of LIV performances. In fact the top two are both under the odds but there's a sliver of value available a little further down.
ADAM SCOTT
All the talk will be about Cam Smith but Scott is about as local as you can get and has a strong history on home soil. After a slow start to the year, the veteran has posted some strong results and is coming in on the back of a T5 performance. Not much of an overlay but you take any value you can get on a class player like Scott.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (WIN) Adam Scott for 0.3 units at $16.50+ 
ADRIAN MERONK
Bone dry for value this week so I'll have another small play on the rangy Pole who has taken his game to new heights this year. He was well off the pace last week but with a pair of Euro victories this season his form is as good as anyone else in the field.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (WIN) Adrian Meronk for 0.2 units at $17.50+
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