Baltimore demolished the Houston Texans 34-10 with a dominating second half display in the Divisional Round – Quarterback Lamar Jackson involved in four touchdowns, two passing and two rushing – and remains the leading contender for the MVP award.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, went into Buffalo to beat the second seeded Bills 27-24 last weekend – tight end Travis Kelce catching five passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns. It's the sixth consecutive year that Kansas City has reached the AFC Conference Championship Game – they boast a 3-2 record to date.
Baltimore is a –3.5-point favourite to reach the Super Bowl – the hosts are 7-3 at home this season with defeats to Indianapolis, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, the latter in a game where the star players were rested. All those victories were by six points or more. KC, meanwhile, is 7-2 on the road with defeats to Denver and Green Bay.
The Ravens are 31/20 to score over 27.5 points – they have hit that mark in seven consecutive home games where the starters have played throughout. Against play-off calibre teams at home, they have amassed totals of 34, 56, 37 and 38 points
Kansas City is 21/20 to score over 20.5 points (the Under 20.5 is 20/27) – a line they have hit five times in away games in 2023. However, against play-off opponents this season the Chiefs have mustered points totals of 21, 17, 19, 17 and 24 – not optimal when they go against the #1 scoring defense in football this weekend.
Switching focus to the player props markets, quarterback Jackson could be a gold mine. His running ability is next level at the position, and he has 10 or more carries (20/33) in eight games this season including 11 carries for 100 yards and two scores last weekend. His over/under on rushing yards is 65.5 - a mark he has hit just four times in 2023, so the under may be the play.
Rushing attempts are split pretty evenly between Jackson, running back Gus Edwards and fellow rusher Justice Hill, with both backs tallying 10+ attempts last weekend. Hill carried 13 times against the Texans and has an Over/Under carriers total of 7.5 (21/20) - he has 8 or more carries in six games this season.
Defensively, the Ravens lead the NFL in sacks with 58.0 - Justin Madubuike (13), Jadeveon Clowney (9.5) and Kyle Van Noy (9) the main threats in the pass rush. The Ravens Over/Under sacks line is set at 2.5 (21/20), worth considering.
For Kansas City, it's hard to look past the trio of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, running back Isiah Pacheco and tight end Travis Kelce for player props potential.
Mahomes has thrown for over 200 passing yards in all but one of his starts this season, has over 242.5 yards (10/11) in 10 of his matches in 2023 and has multiple touchdowns passes in 10 games as well.
His main target remains Travis Kelce. The talented tight end has a line of 61.5 receiving yards for the contest – a mark he has achieved 10 times this season including in his last two appearances. Despite his prowess in the redzone, he has amassed just seven touchdowns on the season, with two of those in the
Divisional Round. He is 20/27 to record six or more receptions (the under is 21/20), a feat he has achieved just once in six games – but he remaisn a go-to target for Mahomes in crucial situations.
Running Isiah Pacheco could see a larger workload in the cold and wet conditions of the US North East. Pacheco has an over/under of 63.5 rushing yards – he is over 89 in four of his last five games and has the over in six of his last eight. Pacheco also boasts a touchdown in six successive matches.
Parlay – Baltimore Ravens to score over 27.5 points, Lamar Jackson under 65.5 rushing yards, Patrick Mahomes over 242.5 passing yards, Travis Kelce over 61.5 receiving yards, Isiah Pacheco over 63.5 rushing yards and an anytime touchdown – 40/1.
