After a quarter-final exit on Night One, 'MVG' has showcased imperious form winning six consecutive games and opens his Night 4 campaign with a quarter-final against Gerwyn Price – an opponent he is yet to face in the Premier League this season.
The Dutchman has out averaged his opponent in six of seven matches so far this campaign and has hit a tournament high 27 180s at an average of 3.86 per game. 'MVG' is currently leading the competition in checkout percentage (47.67%), percentage in legs won against the throw (40%) and average against the throw (101.53).
'Mighty Mike' last faced Price in the final of the 2023 Premier League in May, winning 11-5. He also faced the Welshman twice in the group stage of last year's campaign, with the series tied at 1-1. Price has won five of his last seven matches against Van Gerwen, but the Dutchman has won the last two.
Price was a runner-up to Michael Smith on Night 1, a beaten quarter-finalist on Night 2, again to Smith, and lost out in the semi-finals to Luke Humphries last week. He's third in the Premier League in average (98.70), third in against the throw average (99.80) and fourth in checkout percentage (39.44%)
Van Gerwen to win at 4/6 is a solid parlay addition, with the braver punter eyeing the 2-Way Handicap at –1.5 (11/10) - which is winning by a score of 6-4 or better.
The winner of that quarter-final will face a last four meeting with either Peter Wright or Luke Littler. 'The Nuke' is becoming the poster boy of the sport and has one runner-up, one semi-final and one quarter-final exit to his name in the opening three nights.
Wright, meanwhile, is bottom of the Premier League table with three quarter-final defeats to Rob Cross, Humphries and Van Gerwen. Littler is second in the averages (100.92), third in checkout percentage (45.83%), but has struggled to win against the throw through three weeks.
He should rectify that against an out-of-form Wright. The pair have never met, but Wright currently ranks dead last in the Premier League for average (88.36), checkout percentage (24.32%), legs won against the throw (14.29%) and 180s (4).
The Luke Littler match treble – win, most 180s, highest checkout – is 7/5 and should have a great chance, with very little value in the handicap market.
An all-English slate shines in the top half of the draw as Nathan Aspinall collides with Michael Smith and Rob Cross takes on Luke Humphries.
Aspinall, like Wright, has three quarter-final defeats to his name against Price, Van Gerwen and Humphries. Smith meanwhile, has a Night 1 win on his resumé, but has won just one match since.
The key to this match could be the respective checkout percentages – Smith boasts a 46.48% record compared to Aspinall's 28.21%. Given their relative parity in the averages – Smith outscores his opponent 96.65-93.03 with three darts – it could come down to that discipline. Smith at –1.5 on the two-way handicap is palatable.
Meanwhile, Humphries and Cross renew rivalries, with the former winning the last three matches between the pair. The World Champion reached the Night 3 final and out averaged 'MVG' 101.37-93.85 in a 6-5 defeat.
His checkout percentage of 36.14% has been his downfall, but he should be able to outscore Cross and at least match on the checkouts. A 6-4 scoreline is a 9/2 price, with –1.5 two-way handicap a safer play at 8/11 and a match double – win and most 180s – 5/6.
Night 4 Best Bets (Double – 4.04/1)
· Luke Littler Match Treble (7/5)
· Michael Smith to win 6-4 or better (11/10)
