The 2023 Rugby World Cup shapes as a fascinating affair kicking off in France this week and last for the next seven weeks. South Africa are looking to become just the second champions to defend while South Africa and New Zealand are looking to become the first team to make it four straight wins. France are hopeful of becoming just the second host of the last seven World Cups to hoist the trophy while their Northern Hemisphere compadres will be looking to put an end to the run of four straight Southern Hemisphere wins. There has been just a single Northern Hemisphere winner in the nine World Cups to date. 

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POOL A

It is remarkably a pick 'em race between New Zealand and hosts France to win Pool A. The All Blacks and Les Bleus have played seven times at the World Cup and New Zealand have five wins in that run including two finals but France have pulled off two critical and tournament-ending upsets. France did win the November Test in 2021 when these nations last met but prior to that had won 14 straight including the last four in France. The All Blacks have topped their pool at every Rugby World Cup and even though they showed mixed form during the Rugby Championship look significant overs to win Pool A.

Betting Strategy

BACK: New Zealand to Win Pool A at $1.70+ 

POOL B

South Africa winning Pool B is the best bet of the World Cup with the Springboks capable of going all the way. Let's kick off with their two rivals to claim the group – Ireland and Scotland. The fall of Scottish rugby needs no great recap but even though they hold the fifth ranking they have never surpassed the quarters at the RWC and have failed to make the knockout stage in two of the last three while they have never won a Six Nations and last won the Five Nations in 1999. Ireland, by contrast, have won the Six Nations four times over the last decade and have tended to enter World Cups a fancied pick. Their Rugby World Cup form though is diabolical: they have never been beyond the quarter-finals and were eliminated at the pool stage in 2007. A loss to Japan last World Cup crippled them. South Africa are very much the opposite of Ireland. They do their best work every four years. Since 2005 they have only two Rugby Championships to go with two World Cups. The Springboks have won three of their seven World Cups and reached the semis in a further two. They come off smashing the All Blacks and Wales and won back-to-back Tests with Argentina. The Springboks are topping Pool B. 

Betting Strategy

BACK: South Africa to Win Pool B at $1.40+ 

POOL C

The Wallabies look severely under the odds to win an open Pool C given the unimpressive results seen even since Eddie Jones reclaimed the reins. Australia have lost all five Tests this year and have generally been performing at a very low standard. While this is the easiest pool on paper, the Wallabies at deep odds-on are no play. Fiji have really emerged recently and come into the World Cup off a sensational win over England. This would be a massive leap for a nation that has reached the knockout stage just once since 1999 but the nation does have four wins against Tier 1 nations since 2017 – their best run in a six-year period – and there has been a renewed toughness under Simon Raiwalui. 

Betting Strategy

LAY: Australia to win Pool C at up to $1.80 

BACK: Fiji to Win Pool C at $4.00+ 

POOL D

England and Argentina are the two teams advancing from Pool D and it is the Pumas who hit the World Cup in better shape. Led by former Wallabies (and current Lebanon Rugby League) coach Michael Cheika, Argentina beat the Wallabies in the Rugby Championship while going down in South Africa to the Springboks by just a point. England, meanwhile, come off a humiliating home loss to Fiji and have just one win in their last six Tests. They were hammered 53-10 by France in March. When these teams met last November, Argentina saluted, also on English soil. The Pumas have only topped their group at the World Cup once, back in 2007, but this is a superb opportunity for them do it again. 

Betting Strategy

BACK: Argentina to Win Pool D at $1.80+ 

BACK: Argentina to Reach Semi-Finals at $1.95+ 

OVERALL

It is madness to consider betting a Northern Hemisphere team to win the World Cup. History has seen Six Nations outfits fall short time and time again. France are severely under the odds as the home nation but have good record of reaching finals. The same cannot be said about Ireland, whose recent Six Nations form can be disregarded in favour of their rancid World Cup history. England are just playing far too poorly to compete. New Zealand, naturally, must be considered but it is stunning they are so short. They are no morals to win their group, they are on the hardest side of the draw, they are poorly coached and they are not playing great rugby. The big play needs to be with South Africa. They always lift for World Cups. They thrive in Northern Hemisphere World Cups. They play officials better than any nation. They should be favourites for this. Argentina are also worth a bet. They have lobbed on the good side of the draw, they have taken some big scalps recently and they are from the right side of the equator.

Betting Strategy

BACK: South Africa to Win World Cup at $3.25+ 

BACK: Argentina to Win World Cup at $17+ 

LAY: New Zealand to Win World Cup at up to $4.50 

LAY: Ireland to Win World Cup at up to $9 

LAY: England to Win World Cup at up to $26 

TOP TRYSCORER

The top tryscorer market is never an easy one to bet but two names stand out as value. Makazole Mapimpi is a genuine speedster that has 23 international tries in his 39 Tests and plays on a team that looks set for plenty of points. Former Parramatta winger Semi Radradra has five tries in 11 Tests for Fiji and that is a nation that is going places. He knows his way to the tryline.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Makazole Mapimpi Top Tryscorer at $8+ 

BACK: Semi Radradra Top Tryscorer at $26+