The two big clashes last round were disappointing affairs, made interesting only by their closeness. The Newcastle/Arsenal game was niggly towards the end and neither team threatened as much as they can, partly due to the importance of the match and partly due to the defensive qualities of both sides.
Man. City dominated Chelsea who, until they conceded, looked to be out for a 0-0 result. The game sparkled at times after that and Chelsea did pose a few problems, but from a neutral perspective it didn't live up to expectations. Hopefully this is not a sign of things to come this weekend as the top eight sides face off in four fixtures that will not doubt have huge consequences.
The big losers at the top end since the post-World Cup reset have been Chelsea and Tottenham, particularly Chelsea who will struggle to qualify for any European football in 23/24 unless there is a massive shift. Surely, they rue the hasty dismissal of Thomas Tuchel early in the season.
At the other end of the table, Forest has registered a couple of good results and pulled themselves out of the relegation zone. Wolves show promise under new management and look better than at least three other sides; they should stay up. Some classic 'relegation six-pointers' to look forward to in the next four months, regrettably for the writer some will involve the hapless Hammers.
The predictions that we publish each round are going well, with a strike rate of 59% for a profit-on-turnover of 23.4%. Last weekend we found six correct results for a return of 14.5 units for every ten outlaid. This round looks tricky, with $1.50 the shortest priced favourite and most games offering black odds both sides.
ASTON VILLA v LEEDS: Saturday 14 January 7.00am.
Expecting an entertaining contest between sides unbeaten in their last couple. They played out a scoreless draw at Elland Road in October but both teams are travelling a bit better now. This fixture last season resulted in a 3-3 thriller.
Villa probably should have beaten Wolves at home in their last match, with Bailey responsible for one of the biggest howlers of the season when he failed to score in the dying seconds when it appeared a formality. Wolves had their measure in the first half, but the home side rallied and will see it as points dropped in their quest for European football next season.
Leeds away form in the last three games has been excellent, with a win at Anfield, a 3-4 defeat at Spurs, and a gutsy 0-0 at St James' Park. Defensive lapses and wastefulness in front of goal cost them a win against West Ham in their latest fixture.
The Emery incarnation of Aston Villa is a far more reliable outfit than the Gerrard version. Leeds is capable of anything, but the home side should do enough to get all three points.
Prediction: Aston Villa win (1.90)
MANCHESTER UTD v MANCHESTER CITY: Saturday 14 January 11.30pm.
There is certain to be plenty of feeling in this derby. The hosts will be keen to erase the embarrassment suffered earlier in the season when walloped 6-3 at the Etihad. It was the best we have seen of the blue half in 22/23, and one of the worst performances of the red side of Manchester under Ten Hag.
Since the season restart, Man Utd has scored seven without conceding and collected maximum points, albeit against sides in the bottom six. They look good across the park, but it is difficult to gauge how they are really going against modest opposition. The form of Rashford has been a huge part of the revival this season.
City banged on Chelsea's door for an hour before finally breaking through at Stamford Bridge, although a very poor piece of goalkeeping helped. The goals have dried up by their standards: in their first nine games they scored 33, in the past eight games they have just 12.
The stakes are high. If the home side win, they get to within a point of their cross-town rivals and keep slim title hopes burning. If the noisy neighbours win, they heap pressure on Arsenal before their trip to Tottenham the following day. A draw would be acceptable for Ten Hag, not so Pep.
The last ten EPL meetings at Old Trafford have seen Man City win six, two draws, and Man U win twice. With City five behind Arsenal (and they are still to play the Gunners home and away with six points on the table), Guardiola probably considers the title as his to lose. It will be intriguing to see how Ten Hag tackles this match. Not altogether happy about the price on offer City, but they look to have the edge.
Prediction: Manchester City win (1.75)
BRIGHTON v LIVERPOOL: Sunday 15 January 2.00am.
Although not the spotlight game of the round, this could be the best watch as eighth and sixth meet. Goals should flow – Brighton's last seven games have produced goals for both sides, Liverpool's last six have seen the same outcome.
The Seagulls' big win at Goodison last time might have been flattered by some comical Everton defence, but to be fair they play some of the best football of any side in the league and fear no team. With both World Cup stars back on deck they look formidable. The niggle is that they have lost three of their last five at home and drew with Forest whose away form is poor.
Liverpool's run of four wins ended abruptly at Brentford on 2 January. They are becoming one of the more difficult sides in the league to predict, with wins over Man City and Spurs, and losses to Forest and Leeds, since the start of October.
A Trossard hat-trick saw these sides play a wonderful 3-3 draw at Anfield earlier this season. Hoping for something similar this time around.
Prediction: Draw (3.60)
EVERTON v SOUTHAMPTON: Sunday 15 January 2.00am.
A desperate clash between two of the bottom three clubs.
The home side has picked up just two points from their last six games, with the 4-1 defeat at home to Brighton last time perhaps the nadir of a low season. At Goodison they have tasted defeat three times in a row, with goals continuing to be hard to come by. Lampard is surely on his last legs.
Things look no better for their south coast rivals, who have lost six straight since an unlikely draw with Arsenal. Like Everton, their latest defeat at home to Forest was probably a low-water mark. However, out of the blue, the Saints toppled Man City in the Carabao Cup midweek to progress to the semi-finals. That will do their confidence the world of good, but it doesn't mean they have turned the corner.
Everton took three points at St Mary's earlier this season, coming from behind in a strange game where all the scoring action fell within a five-minute period.
Historically this match-up is all Everton. In the last 15 meetings on Merseyside, the home side has won ten with five draws. The Toffees picked themselves up from a run of three losses to despatch Palace 3-0 at home in October. Off similarly poor form this time, and with massive expectations from home fans for something positive following the Brighton debacle, they can scratch out a win and pull out of the bottom three.
Prediction: Everton win (2.20)
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v LEICESTER: Sunday 15 January 2.00am.
Another crucial encounter between sides level on points and only two clear of safety.
The home side are enjoying their best run of form this season, with just one loss from that last five games for eight points. They are now five games without defeat at the City Ground, three of those results against top-ten opponents. It has understandably taken a while but the wholesale changes made to the Forest squad since promotion are beginning to gel.
Leicester has lost all three games since the recommencement although they have been against sides in the top seven. The defeat at Anfield was luckless, and they had gilt-edged chances on a few occasions against Fulham – it is fair to say they could easily have lifted between two and four points in those games.
Leicester's last four matches against sides in the bottom eight have yielded four wins and a goals aggregate of 10-0. The reverse fixture in October went the way of the Foxes 4-0. Although Maddison's return is still uncertain, they have the firepower to overcome Forest and give Brendan Rodgers a little breathing space.
Prediction: Leicester win (2.60)
WOLVES v WEST HAM: Sunday 15 January 2.00am.
The third of the cellar-dweller clashes.
Wolves still haven't found their range in front of goal but recent efforts against Man Utd and Villa have been positive. The most alarming stat is that they are better away from home of late, and come here off four straight losses at Molineux, although Man U, Arsenal and Brighton were the last three.
West Ham was lucky to escape with a point at Elland Road last time in a game high on entertainment but low on defensive quality. Pacqueta was better, but the aging rear-guard still looks cumbersome and fragile. A fully-fit Aguard is a big plus, but he can't be everywhere. I'd imagine Adama Traore's eyes lit up when he saw Cresswell's performance against Leeds; he will run rings around the Hammers' aging left-back should the match-up arise.
West Ham won 2-0 when the sides met in London earlier in the season. It is probably fair to say that Wolves are better now, and West Ham are not. Expecting a tight, low-scoring affair. A draw doesn't really help either side, but it might be what they have to settle for.
Prediction: Draw (3.10)
BRENTFORD v BOURNEMOUTH: Sunday 15 January 4.30am.
In a season of feel-good stories, Brentford's rise might take the cake. Unbeaten in their last six, and with wins over Man City and Liverpool in that run, they sit in ninth position and have a whiff of European football. Even a near second-string outfit gave West Ham a difficult time in the FA Cup midweek. Their win over the Reds last time was outstanding, another Thomas Frank coaching masterclass.
On the other hand, Bournemouth is sliding with no points and no goals from their three games since the World Cup break. They are particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding 29 times in nine games. New ownership may inject some much-needed funds to bolster the squad, but it needs to happen in the January window or their stay in the top flight may be short-lived.
The Bees are not familiar with the favouritism tag. It would be a massive form reversal to see them take anything but maximum points from this game.
Prediction: Brentford win (1.62)
CHELSEA v CRYSTAL PALACE: Monday 16 January 1.00am.
At the beginning of the season, Chelsea would expect nothing less than a top-four finish. As it stands, they are not even in the top four London clubs. This derby against a hot-and-cold Palace is the last throw of the dice: a draw or defeat spells the end of 2023 European aspirations, and probably seals Graham Potter's fate.
At times they threatened Fulham on Thursday evening, but you could count on one hand the number of times they strung together half a dozen passes. New loanee Felix was sharp and found space, but his send-off rules him out of this fixture. Once again, they are left looking toothless up front. Defensively, Trevor Chalobah was a train wreck at Craven Cottage. Goalkeeper Kepa is making fundamental errors and is low on confidence.
Palace cannot maintain momentum but win often enough to stay out of relegation peril. Since their 2-1 loss to Chelsea in October, they have won five games but lost four – typical mid-table stuff. It has been raised here before; they should be scoring more often than they do. Supporters can be somewhat satisfied with the table position, but must feel deep down they could be mixing it with the Brentford/Fulham/Brighton crowd just ahead of them.
The Stamford Bridge meeting of these sides has been one-way traffic recently, with Chelsea winning the last six by an aggregate of 16-2. I am loath to pick a team in such poor form and low on confidence, but they simply must win this.
Prediction: Chelsea win (1.67)
NEWCASTLE v FULHAM: Monday 16 January 1.00am.
The black-and-white success stories of 22/23 meet in what few would have predicted at the start of the season to be a top-six clash. Newcastle thumped the Cottagers 4-1 in London when they met in October. It was during a mini-slump for Fulham who have certainly turned things around since then, including four wins from four since Christmas.
Newcastle kept a fourth straight clean sheet when they drew with Arsenal most recently, although they are now 238 minutes without an EPL goal themselves. It was perhaps necessary that their explosive offensive style of play was tethered when they took on the Gunners, earning them a satisfactory if not enthralling point. They remain the best defensive side in the league, and one of the most dangerous in attack. A shock FA Cup third-round defeat against League One Sheffield Wednesday midweek may have been a symptom of mental fatigue for a relatively thin squad that keeps punching above its weight. They can and will re-group from that rude awakening.
Fulham's win over Chelsea was just their second in 32 attempts against the fierce west-London rival. Willian and Pereira steered the ship in the absence of the suspended Mitrovic. It was the first time this campaign that Fulham had won without their gun striker, who returns for this clash.
Without being too critical, it appears Newcastle might be slightly off the boil at present. They are the warmest favourites of this round and a win to them looks the most likely outcome, but from a value perspective I'm not mad about $1.50. Something on the draw at a juicy quote makes more appeal.
Prediction: Draw (4.20)
TOTTENHAM v ARSENAL: Monday 16 January 3.30am.
This is one of the keenest rivalries in the English game but this encounter will be a bit spicier than most due to what is at stake. Depending on what happens at Old Trafford, the Arsenal lead may be cut to just two points when this is played, and Spurs would love nothing more to inflict a blow to their north London rival's quest for the title.
Tottenham finally scored first in a game and went on to register a comfortable win away to Palace last time, although it was 0-0 at half-time and they were second best until Kane worked his magic. The great striker is now one shy of the club record held by the legendary Jimmy Greaves, and two shy of joining the 200 EPL goals-club. Spurs have not been at their best for a while, but the second half demolition at Selhurst Park puts them in a great frame of mind for this clash.
Arsenal was a little better than Newcastle in their top-of-the-table clash but couldn't breach that excellent defence. It ended a run of five straight wins and was the first time this campaign that they had failed to find the net. Jesus remains unavailable, while there is a small cloud over Saka after he missed the midweek Cup tie against Oxford. However, he should be there for this important clash.
Maybe the on-field action will be overshadowed by the side-line histrionics of a couple of animated hotheads in Arteta and Conte. Take even-money about them being involved in a scuffle at some stage.
As for the real action, this will be a tight contest showcasing vastly different styles of play. Arsenal has not won away against Spurs since 2014, with Tottenham winning the last four encounters at home. It should be an absorbing struggle, with a draw definitely on the cards.
Prediction: Draw (3.50)
