Timeform Recap: 2016 Memsie Stakes

Timeform recap the 2016 Memsie Stakes won by Black Heart Bart for trainer Darren Weir and jockey Brad Rawiller.

Black Heart Bart wins the 2016 Memsie Stakes
Black Heart Bart wins the 2016 Memsie Stakes Picture: Racing and Sports

Black Heart Bart went into the 2016 Memsie Stakes already established as one of the best sprinters in the country and he confirmed as much by winning the first Group 1 of the new season.

Black Heart Bart didn't have to match his peak of 126, running to a rating of 124 to win a race largely made up of horses either far inferior to him or better seen over further.

Black Heart Bart was one of just four horses that went into the race with a Timeform rating of 120 or higher. The closest to Black Heart Bart being the 122-rated Tarzino who achieved that mark over 2000m.

the 2016 Memsie Stakes produced a good winner but there is a lack of depth behind Black Heart Bart

Dissident also ran to 124 when winning the 2014 Memsie but was one of nine that went into the race rated 120 or higher. In 2013 Atlantic Jewel was one of seven above the 120 mark.

So the 2016 Memsie Stakes produced a good winner but there is a lack of depth behind Black Heart Bart, something that also comes to the fore when looking at Racing And Sports' field strength figure - a figure that weighs several key variables, not least the exposed ability of the prominent runners in the race.

The 2016 Memsie Stakes returned a field strength figure of 120.5, down on the three preceding years and at the low end of the ten-year range. It's certainly a long way below the 126.6 returned by the 2010 Memsie Stakes - the race that launched So You Think towards a second Cox Plate and the last time the Cox Plate winner has come through the Memsie.

That brings us to the biggest question to come out of the race. Given what appears a lack of depth in the ranks is Black Heart Bart the biggest obstacle in the path of Winx winning her second Cox Plate? And if it's not him, who is it?

Adjusted for her mares allowance Winx currently tops the Timeform ratings for the Cox Plate at 132 - and judging by her Warwick Stakes return she back perhaps even better than ever.

With his Timeform rating of 126, Black Heart Bart is indeed the closest thing to a Cox Plate rival that Winx has domestically - but it's hard to imagine that, even under the masterful care of Darren Weir, he could match Winx and her 132 around the Valley if she turns up ready to play.

The search for a rival therefore heads overseas where three potentials stand out as the most likely to cause Winx grief should they head this way.

Highland Reel - Timeform 128

Highland Reel has already been manhandled by Winx when he attempted to match motors with her in last year's Cox Plate. He's a better horse now, however, and produced far and away his best performance short of 2400m when runner up to a world class horse in Postponed last time. A timefigure of 126 from that meeting with Postponed at York points to that having been a genuine contest at the top level. He's as ready as he's going to be for another meeting with our wonder mare.

Mutakayyef - Timeform 126

That same genuine Group 1 contest contained another with a Cox Plate entry in Mutakayyef. He found traffic in the run home and a case could be made that he was unlucky not to take second ahead of Highland Reel. A rating of 126 is on par with Black Heart Bart but Mutakayyef has arrived at this peak on a fairly steep upward spiral, winning with ratings of 116 and 123 in the two runs prior to his York summit. There's plenty in his profile to suggest he could be on his way to scaling greater heights and a trip down under would certainly afford him the chance.

Vadamos - Timeform 126

Another that has found a new peak at 126 just recently, Vadamos achieving that mark when runner up in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time. That followed up what was then a new career high of 125 at Maisons Laffitte. Prior to that Vadamos had looked a good horse shy of the Group 1 level - getting belted every time he dared dive into the top grade (beaten an average of 2.5 lengths in four Group 1 runs) - but now he looks a horse coming good at the right time, if Melbourne is on his agenda.

Perhaps the biggest domestic challenge to Winx will come from an emerging three-year-old. As outlined in the Timeform review of last season's two-year-old crop the current group is tracking as the best group since Pierro led the stellar 2011/12 group to win 11 races against their elders in their 'classic season'.

The positive trends for the three-year-olds continued on the Memsie Stakes undercard with the McNeil going to an above-average winner in Defcon.

Defcon was rated 110p as a two-year-old but improved to a rating of 115p when winning the McNeil, as good a performance in the race as any since Miss Finland and Haradasun ran to 116 and 120 respectively in 2006.

As expected there were runs in the race that look bright for the future but it was a truly run race and if any horse looks better than the bare result at this stage it is the winner.


Racing and Sports

Caulfield

Saturday, 27th August 2016

7
16:10
(local)

N.Z. Bloodstock Memsie Stakes (G1)

Age: 3yo and up Type: OPEN
AUD $502,000
1400m TURF GOOD
7
16:10
(local)
AUD $502,000
1400m GOOD

N.Z. Bloodstock Memsie Stakes (G1)

Age: 3yo and up Type: OPEN
FP Horse, Age & Sex
Sire & Dam
Jockey
Trainer
SP
WT
1st 2. BLACK HEART BART (AUS) 6yo G
BLACKFRIARS (AUS) - SISTER THERESA (AUS)
BRAD RAWILLER
DARREN WEIR
$2
59kg
K Renner, C Delacy, Mrs D Richardson, A Psaltis & I McCarthy

Sales Information

2nd 13. RISING ROMANCE (NZ) 6yo M
EKRAAR (USA) - POST ROMANCE (NZ)
DAMIAN LANE
D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG
$17
57kg
N J & Mrs V M Carter, M R Powell & B H Carter
3rd 8. MAHUTA (AUS) 4yo H
FLYING SPUR (AUS) - VAHINE (NZ)
JOHN ALLEN
DARREN WEIR
$8
58.5kg
Roll The Dice, N Gottlewski, G Buchan, B Stonehouse, D Anderson, J Rullo, H Norton, G Moss, B Grace, S McKenzie, T Samuel, D Parkinson, W W W Racing, Sixlands & National Queen

Sales Information

4th 6. TASHBEEH (AUS) 5yo H
COMMANDS (AUS) - MORE VALOUR (AUS)
CORY PARISH
D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG
$61
59kg

Sales Information

5th 11. PALENTINO (AUS) 4yo H
TEOFILO (IRE) - PALATINE HILL (AUS)
MARK ZAHRA
DARREN WEIR
$9
58.5kg

Sales Information

6th 7. ALPINE EAGLE (AUS) 5yo H
HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) - ZEPHYRIA (NZ)
LUKE CURRIE
TONY MCEVOY
$13
59kg
7th 5. HE OR SHE (AUS) 6yo G
KENDEL STAR (AUS) - DANESSA (AUS)
DWAYNE DUNN
D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG
$21
59kg

Sales Information

8th 9. TARZINO (NZ) 4yo H
TAVISTOCK (NZ) - ZARZINO (NZ)
CRAIG NEWITT
MICK PRICE
$15
58.5kg

Sales Information

9th 4. CHARMED HARMONY (AUS) 7yo G
HUSSONET (USA) - MAGIC HARMONY (AUS)
THOMAS SADLER
JOHN SADLER
$21
59kg
10th 14. SOFIA ROSA (NZ) 4yo M
MAKFI (GB) - BISLIERI (AUS)
DAMIEN OLIVER
STEPHEN MARSH
$16
56.5kg

Sales Information

11th 1. PRINCE OF PENZANCE (NZ) 7yo G
PENTIRE (GB) - ROYAL SUCCESSOR (USA)
HARRY COFFEY
DARREN WEIR
$51
59kg

Sales Information

12th 12. TALLY (AUS) 4yo G
STREET CRY (IRE) - ITEMISE (USA)
MICHAEL DEE
JOHN O'SHEA
$41
58.5kg