Before we get into tonight’s action I have found a play that represents value in the highest team score for the round.

$$$Canberra Raiders highest team score round 15$$$

Whilst Canberra has been ordinary away and their defence still has a question mark they have proven they can score points at home. The Cowboys have produced some awful defensive efforts this year and could be on the wrong end of yet another towelling.

Tonight’s games see NZ play Penrith and Manly play Canterbury.

I will access NZ play Penrith first. NZ have struggled to put points on the board in recent games but have controlled field position quite well. Until we see some more flair in their attack any game they play the under is going to look good.

$$$NZ play Penrith under.$$$

NZ have shown a willingness to take a penalty goal when it is on offer this season and this looks a good play for first scoring play. Given the Panthers poor discipline there is a strong chance they will get an opportunity.

$$$NZ penalty goal first scoring play$$$.

Despite an average head to head record against Penrith I think NZ can get the Cash tonight on the back of their tough win against Cronulla last week. Given NZ inability to put teams away I am in no hurry to take on the start. NZ however have quite a strong record at half time having lead 8 of their games played and only trailed on 3 occasions. I would expect NZ to then go on and close out the game but Penrith have shown an ability to score late trys so a blowout looks unlikely. The following plays appeal.

$$$NZ to lead halftime by 1-6$$$
$$$NZ in the halftime/fulltime double$$$
$$$NZ 1-12$$$

The final game played tonight sees Manly play Canterbury.

Both teams attack has left a bit to be desired this year. Manly have a very strong defensive record and that record is even more impressive at Brooky. Canterbury do not produce great flair in attack so Manly should be able to handle them in defensive quite easily. Manly's attack was nothing short of woeful against South’s last week. I am expecting another low scoring game tonight.

$$$Manly play Canterbury under$$$

Opposition teams have struggled to cross the manly line this year so despite not possessing a huge attacking game Manly look likely to score the first try. There has been not many more prolific tyrscores than Brett Stewart and his record at Brooky is amazing. He is the obvious play for first try scorer.

$$$Brett Stewart first try scorer$$$

It is hard to see a Canterbury victory here and it will require a big turnaround in form. Manly are unbeaten at home this year and it looks like it will stay that way. However 5 of their 7 wins have been close so we should expect a similar result tonight.

$$$Manly 1-12$$$

May we all have an ounce of luck
Insom

I have a strong leaning towards the Knights here and I think you will see a dominate win. The Knights have really grown on me in the past couple of weeks and I see good signs there. The Raiders come off a big win last week but are a different team way from home. The Knights will be too strong here and should post there best win of the season.

The over is also a great play here. I expect a high scoring game. Both sides have big attacking games but can leak points. Newcastle Stadium can take alot of rain so conditions under foot will not be as bad as one might expect. Just hope the rain dosn't bucket down whilst play in play.

So there you go two specials for the game. If you can find a bookie who will let you parlay these go for it.

1.See the latest rejects from the muppet show
Wag their t*** and their d**** as they lip-synch on screen.

2.I will click-clack...Push ya wig back, further than Tyra Banks hairline.

3.If you can feel what I'm feeling then it's a musical masterpiece. But if you can hear what I'm dealing with then that's cool at least.

4.And if you wanna find hell with me. I can show you what its like.

5.We went from studying epistles of Paul
beneath a waterfall, rubbin crystal balls.
But now we spray paint initials on the wall.

6.You always smile but in your eyes your sorrow shows.

7.In the quest for the test to fulfill an achievement everybody's only in it for themselves.

8.My crack pipe is my violin. I play along to the police siren.

9.Mellow is the feeling that I get when I see her.

10.Well, me and Nukflukchuckbuck, we both like blubber but me, I've got this crazy fetish for rubber.

11.Looking for a ride to your secret location.
Where the kids are setting up a free-speed nation.

12.If I could maybe Id give you my world.

13.I'm not alone cause the TV's on yeah.

14.I've fallen for tawny moor. Took off to the land of Nod.

15.Everybody knows that the dice are loaded. Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed.

16.But if I go cold I won't get sold
I'll get put in the back in the discount rack.

17.I dont know where but she sends me there.

18.Too many sorry’s went around and we became a familiar sound.

19.I tripped on a cloud and fell-a eight miles high

20.And I thought I'd loved a few. No one ever made me feel the way that you do.

Tonight’s games:

Dogs $-line

Dragons $-line

Disruptions in opponent’s camp preparation with both coaches having origin duties.

It is no secret that I am out of form so I have enlisted the help of world renowned sports annalist John Anthony and he has given me his best play for this week.

He is very confident about this play. The phrase "borrow if you have to" was used.

Roosters 1-12 & Draw in 80 minute margin betting.

There you go looks like there will be a big upset this round :)

It pains me to say this because I despise the club but they are good things week. Get on now before all the money comes. Borrow if you have to :)

First off let's just get the stats out of the way.

Broncos have won their last 5 matches vs the Sharks, 3 of them away.

Of 3 away games Broncos have had this season they have won 2. I concede they were not against the strongest of teams but the Sharks are not a huge step up.

After the Sharks 3 previous wins they failed to back up and were beaten next round.

The trend is there for the Sharks to produce a below par performance on Friday and they are not helped by their recent schedule. They were able to score an against the odds win over a hard hitting New Zealand on the quick back up but how much has it taken out of them? Too much if this seasons history is anything to go on.

A modest performance by the Broncos should see them win here. If they want to mount a challenge on the premiership they have to win these games. One could argue that the Broncos have not been able to string 2 wins together this season either but they have produced strong back to back efforts. One could also argue they have been in ordinary form, which is true, but I think they have built a platform with their grinding win over the Bunnies last week to produce a strong performance here.

So all that is left now is for you to get on, sweat the game and then collect :)

First off we have my best bet all year. New Zealand over South Sydney. New Zealand have a great record vs Souths having won 11 matches in a row against them including a 66-0 blowout last year. Souths have a decent pack this year but I still feel NZ will be too powerful. I am not a fan of the Souths backline and they might struggle if NZ get on top of their forwards.

If Brisbane are going to bit the bullet and play Lockyer as a halfback why not move Hunt to 5/8? They tried him at halfback unsuccessfully but if he could work on the back of Lockyer similar to as he is doing now he might find his niche. Obviously Hodges goes back to fullback and Berrigan can probably return to the centers. This is the strongest Brisbane team I can envision.

Michael Monaghan. After helping Manly to their unbeaten start to the season they want to release him mid season? Keep him incase of an injury it is a no brainier. But if he is released they say Wests are after him. This is the time for St.George to actually make a smart move. Release one legged Matty Head and give Monaghan his contract. We have no pivots and they are not too many available. Also someone who plays with their heart on their sleeve might be good for St.George.

Melbourne. How are they going to get beat? They look like they can improve by 20 points yet they are still undefeated.

Parramatta. Of the longer priced teams I think they are the best chance for the Premiership. I still see a lot of improvement in them and they were able to produce a very strong back end to the season last year. I don't see why they can't produce a similar effort this year. Value if you ask me.

New Zeland are my pick however and they are still at backable odds.

Cowboys. Good start to the season. Whilst they is no denying they have some great individual players I am not wrapt in them as a whole. Plus they will have to deal with the origin strain on both players and coaching staff. They couldn't handle it last year. Lays if you ask me.

01.Hunt
02.Tate
03.Lyon
04.Hodges
05.King
06.Lockyer (c)
07.Thurston
08.Kite
09.Smith
10.Civoniceva
11.Hindmarsh
12.Mason
13.Ryan
Reserves:
Baily, Berrigan,Simpson, Topou

LOL Do they want to get beat?

Tonights games:
Penrith v Parra
Brisbane v Titans


Penrith should be too strong for Parra at home. Expect a strong performance early as they have been lacking in that area recently and this is a good chance to resolve this problem. Penrith should lead from barrier to box, controll this game, and win comfortablly.

I have not been impressed with Parra performance wise but they look like they have huge improvment in them at the back end of the season. I will be backing them to win the comp at long odds. They look a little underprepared at the momment.

Panthers -4 (2 units)
Panthers 13+ (1 uints)

Brisbane finally broke through for their first win last week and get a good chance to post a second here. If they want to have any chance to go back to back they need to be winning these games before the SOO drain. Brisbane should dominate this game and score comfortablly.

Brisbane 13+ (3 units)

Is it too early to be talking about the team that will beat QLD this year?

My NSW side:

Minichiello
King
Lyon
Cooper
Groth
Hornby
Orford
Mason
Buderus
Ryles
Hindmarsh
Ryan
Maitua

Kite
Bailey
Simpson
Farah

I'm up for an avatar bet with any QLDer of presence on the forum :)