red hot chillies
M&P
Cox Plate
BMW
CC
TOTAL: 3
Northerly
2 cox plates
2 aust cups
1 CC
TOTAL: 5
BLU
Japan Cup
Aust Cup
Cox Plate
TOTAL: 3
MD
BMW
Cox Plate
Aust Cup
TOTAL: 3
Slowline
2 cox plates
TOTAL: 2
BLU and Northerly have the best records, followed by M&P, then MD and Slowline is last.
Cox Plate
BMW
CC
TOTAL: 3
Northerly
2 cox plates
2 aust cups
1 CC
TOTAL: 5
BLU
Japan Cup
Aust Cup
Cox Plate
TOTAL: 3
MD
BMW
Cox Plate
Aust Cup
TOTAL: 3
Slowline
2 cox plates
TOTAL: 2
BLU and Northerly have the best records, followed by M&P, then MD and Slowline is last.
11 Comments
The 58kgs given to MD was fine but what about the other weights given to other horses?
MD wins the
# Melb cup
# Aust cup
# BMW
gets a 2.5kg penalty.
Elvis wins 1 CC by a whisker
gets a 2.5kg penalty.
Northerly wins the CC by a whisker
gets a 2kg penalty.
Where's the consistency?
If 3 big wins is worth 2.5kgs then why isnt the CC only worth 1kg?
Surely 3 big wins in 12 mths holds a lot more weight than 1 narrow win in the last month.
I dont mind handicappers giving champions like MD a winning chance but at least be consistent and give other horses a fair weight.
Maybe it's time for an objective system where the CC only gets 1kgs for a narrow win of less than a length.
M&P won by 7 so the 3.5kgs was fair enough.
The 2.5kgs and 2kgs given to Elvis, Northerly and Railings was too harsh.
If Northerly was given 59kgs Fred would have run.
MD wins the
# Melb cup
# Aust cup
# BMW
gets a 2.5kg penalty.
Elvis wins 1 CC by a whisker
gets a 2.5kg penalty.
Northerly wins the CC by a whisker
gets a 2kg penalty.
Where's the consistency?
If 3 big wins is worth 2.5kgs then why isnt the CC only worth 1kg?
Surely 3 big wins in 12 mths holds a lot more weight than 1 narrow win in the last month.
I dont mind handicappers giving champions like MD a winning chance but at least be consistent and give other horses a fair weight.
Maybe it's time for an objective system where the CC only gets 1kgs for a narrow win of less than a length.
M&P won by 7 so the 3.5kgs was fair enough.
The 2.5kgs and 2kgs given to Elvis, Northerly and Railings was too harsh.
If Northerly was given 59kgs Fred would have run.
Best runs:
CC - ep, railings, lf.
CP - MD
Geelong - rubbish
SAAB - rubbish
Mackinnon - Lachlin River
Foreigners - VR, Distinction.
Winning chances - EP, Railings, LF, MD, VR, Distinction (rough).
Place chances - Lachlin, Demerger, Portland Singa.
My Market
$4 EP
$5 Railings
$6 LF
$8 VR
$10 MD
$20 Distinction
CC - ep, railings, lf.
CP - MD
Geelong - rubbish
SAAB - rubbish
Mackinnon - Lachlin River
Foreigners - VR, Distinction.
Winning chances - EP, Railings, LF, MD, VR, Distinction (rough).
Place chances - Lachlin, Demerger, Portland Singa.
My Market
$4 EP
$5 Railings
$6 LF
$8 VR
$10 MD
$20 Distinction
1. Who was the last horse to win 4 races in a row including the melb cup?
2. Who was the last horse to win a melb cup after only 9 previous starts?
3. Who was the last horse to win a melb cup without having any 2000m runs in prior campaigns?
2. Who was the last horse to win a melb cup after only 9 previous starts?
3. Who was the last horse to win a melb cup without having any 2000m runs in prior campaigns?
They plodded as expected in the Plate. The staying 3yos look weak this year.
Hotel Grand might run in the mackinnon but will get flogged by Activation who should have been running in the CP.
God's Own looks like a 1400-1600m horse. Perhaps the Aust Guineas and Doncaster will be his go. Primus vs GO in the Guineas will be good.
Hotel Grand might run in the mackinnon but will get flogged by Activation who should have been running in the CP.
God's Own looks like a 1400-1600m horse. Perhaps the Aust Guineas and Doncaster will be his go. Primus vs GO in the Guineas will be good.
The fav is a 7yo stayer who is 0/3 at the track.
The 2nd fav is a 3yo who has never raced at the track or over the distance.
Where are the proven WFA performers?
No
Elvis
Starcraft
GA
The only one is the 8yo FOO and a miler named LOTM who hasnt won past 1600m. LOL
Bart has lost the plot with his "best field in 10 years" comment.
The 2nd fav is a 3yo who has never raced at the track or over the distance.
Where are the proven WFA performers?
No
Elvis
Starcraft
GA
The only one is the 8yo FOO and a miler named LOTM who hasnt won past 1600m. LOL
Bart has lost the plot with his "best field in 10 years" comment.
CAULFIELD CUP - SIR DEX
COX PLATE - SUPER KID
MELBOURNE CUP - PLASTERED
Good luck!
Hopefully this thread wont get hijacked by stalkers and pro plodder central promoting his 9-9 job.
COX PLATE - SUPER KID
MELBOURNE CUP - PLASTERED
Good luck!
Hopefully this thread wont get hijacked by stalkers and pro plodder central promoting his 9-9 job.
Past Winners of the Caulfield Cup 1990-2004
12 of the past 15 winners had their final lead up run in the turnbull or yalumba and finished no worse than 8th. the exceptions were the epsom, winning edge and uk race.
15/15 had at least 10 starts prior to winning the cup. the average is 20.
13/15 had a winning strike rate of 26% or higher prior to winning. the exceptions were mummify on 19% and diatribe on 14.8%. both stayers.
12/15 had ran a place in a 2100m race or longer prior to cup. the exceptions were northerly, might and power and mannerism.
13/15 carried between 48.5 and 56.5kgs. the exceptions were sydeston and northerly. note sky heights was allocated 55kgs but weights were raised 1.5kgs that year. so really the weight range is 48.5-55kgs.
15/15 were aged 4-6 when they won. the exception was taufan's melody.
## So the likely winner:
1. Had at least 10 career starts
2. Won at least 26% of them
3. Ran top 8 in turnbull or yalumba
4. Placed at 2100m or above in prior 18 mths
5. Been allocated 48.5-55kgs
6. Aged 4-6
Sir Dex fails point 2
Leica Falcon fails points 1 and 3
El Segundo fails point 4
Confectioner fails point 4
Dizelle fails point 3
Railings fails point 3
The horses that were exceptions were either champions (m&p and northerly), stayers (mummify and diatribe), lucky (mannerism) or a pom (melody).
Plastered is my tip.
12 of the past 15 winners had their final lead up run in the turnbull or yalumba and finished no worse than 8th. the exceptions were the epsom, winning edge and uk race.
15/15 had at least 10 starts prior to winning the cup. the average is 20.
13/15 had a winning strike rate of 26% or higher prior to winning. the exceptions were mummify on 19% and diatribe on 14.8%. both stayers.
12/15 had ran a place in a 2100m race or longer prior to cup. the exceptions were northerly, might and power and mannerism.
13/15 carried between 48.5 and 56.5kgs. the exceptions were sydeston and northerly. note sky heights was allocated 55kgs but weights were raised 1.5kgs that year. so really the weight range is 48.5-55kgs.
15/15 were aged 4-6 when they won. the exception was taufan's melody.
## So the likely winner:
1. Had at least 10 career starts
2. Won at least 26% of them
3. Ran top 8 in turnbull or yalumba
4. Placed at 2100m or above in prior 18 mths
5. Been allocated 48.5-55kgs
6. Aged 4-6
Sir Dex fails point 2
Leica Falcon fails points 1 and 3
El Segundo fails point 4
Confectioner fails point 4
Dizelle fails point 3
Railings fails point 3
The horses that were exceptions were either champions (m&p and northerly), stayers (mummify and diatribe), lucky (mannerism) or a pom (melody).
Plastered is my tip.
NSWTAB PRICES
271 Plastered $6.00 $2.25
151 Confectioner $8.00 $2.75
343 Vouvray $8.00 $2.75
346 Xcellent $9.00 $3.00
166 Dizelle $13.00 $4.00
174 El Segundo $15.00 $4.50
250 Mr Celebrity $15.00 $4.50
278 Railings $15.00 $4.50
218 Lachlan River $21.00 $6.00
236 Makybe Diva $21.00 $6.00
272 Portland Singa $21.00 $6.00
309 Sir Dex $21.00 $6.00
Plastered is unders. he's 3rd up. should have had another lead up run.
confectioner is about right or slight overs.
vouvray is unders
dizelle is unders
mr celeb is unders
sir dex is overs
yalumba is the final lead up race. should be easier after that is run.
271 Plastered $6.00 $2.25
151 Confectioner $8.00 $2.75
343 Vouvray $8.00 $2.75
346 Xcellent $9.00 $3.00
166 Dizelle $13.00 $4.00
174 El Segundo $15.00 $4.50
250 Mr Celebrity $15.00 $4.50
278 Railings $15.00 $4.50
218 Lachlan River $21.00 $6.00
236 Makybe Diva $21.00 $6.00
272 Portland Singa $21.00 $6.00
309 Sir Dex $21.00 $6.00
Plastered is unders. he's 3rd up. should have had another lead up run.
confectioner is about right or slight overs.
vouvray is unders
dizelle is unders
mr celeb is unders
sir dex is overs
yalumba is the final lead up race. should be easier after that is run.
nswtab prices
185 Makybe Diva $2.25 $1.30
277 Xcellent $6.50 $2.35
177 Lad of The Manor $9.00 $3.00
146 Fields of Omagh $11.00 $3.50
122 Confectioner $15.00 $4.50
160 Greys Inn $15.00 $4.50
216 Perlin $15.00 $4.50
134 Desert War $17.00 $5.00
198 Mummify $17.00 $5.00
254 Super Kid $17.00 $5.00
165 Hotel Grand $21.00 $6.00
195 Mr Celebrity $26.00 $7.25
220 Plastered $26.00 $7.25
239 She's Justa Tad $26.00 $7.25
102 Activation $34.00 $9.25
MD is unders
Xcellent is unders
Foo is unders
Lad is overs
Mummify is overs
Greys in and super k - dunno.
185 Makybe Diva $2.25 $1.30
277 Xcellent $6.50 $2.35
177 Lad of The Manor $9.00 $3.00
146 Fields of Omagh $11.00 $3.50
122 Confectioner $15.00 $4.50
160 Greys Inn $15.00 $4.50
216 Perlin $15.00 $4.50
134 Desert War $17.00 $5.00
198 Mummify $17.00 $5.00
254 Super Kid $17.00 $5.00
165 Hotel Grand $21.00 $6.00
195 Mr Celebrity $26.00 $7.25
220 Plastered $26.00 $7.25
239 She's Justa Tad $26.00 $7.25
102 Activation $34.00 $9.25
MD is unders
Xcellent is unders
Foo is unders
Lad is overs
Mummify is overs
Greys in and super k - dunno.
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Re: GROUPIES RESULTS Autumn 2022 Final
