the contrarian
Whether the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper burnout syndrome is true or not, many of the top performers in the 2yo races do not go on to better things later in their career. Many have a much happier time at stud to look forward to. That leaves a window of opportunity for some of the late maturers to reap future Spring riches. The last 3 Springs brings Choisir, Fastnet Rock and Glamour Puss to my mind. Who will step up to the mark this Spring?
Since the start of the 90’s, there have been a scattering of top Group performing sprinters that also contested BD and/or GS – Sudurka, Our Maizcay, General Nediym, Mistegic, Belle Du Jour, Yell, Choisir, Exceed and Excel, Fastnet Rock, Alinghi come to mind.
But what of horses that were virtually unheard of around 2yo time? Here is a brief but not exhaustive list to ponder, together with their first start venue and winning margin:
Schillaci – Kyneton 22/10/91 Mdn 2.0l
Sequalo - Cranbourne 04/03/93 2yo 1.8l
Poetic King – Ballarat 18/05/93 Mdn 2.0l
Brawny Spirit – Flemington 14/6/93 2yo 6.5l
Gold Ace – Flemington 01/11/94 LR 3.0l
Masked Party – Randwick 24/12/94 2yo 2.3l
Rock You - Kyneton 23/05/95 Mdn 4.5l
Toledo – Morphettville 30/12/95 2yo 6.5l
Bomber Bill – Ascot 20/12/97 2yo 1.0l
Falvelon – Eagle Farm 10/10/98 2yo 1.0l
Commands – Rosehill 12/12/98 2yo 1.8l
Pharein – Caulfield 02/02/99 2yo 2.0l
Camena – Ipswich 03/11/99 Mdn 5.0l
Rubitano – Kyneton 09/10/01 Mdn 4.0l
Regimental Gal – Eagle Farm 30/11/02 2yo 2.3l
Spark of Life – Newcastle 17/05/03 2yo 8.3l
Takeover Target – Queanbeyan 23/04/04 Mdn 7.0l
(Glamour Puss won her 1st start in NZ)
Bit of a trend happening here? Interesting to note that these horses came 2nd at their first start in a race: Miss Pennymoney, Hareeba, Easy Rocking. Also interesting to note that these horses did not win at their first start but were successful next go: Mahogany (by 4.3l), Isca, and Al Mansour. Spinning Hill won her 3rd start.
So what can be learned here? I for one will be looking closely at horses that are well-performed in their first race start, especially winners by a length or more. I will then form an opinion once they step into better grade.
Prior to me posting this information, my two for the Spring sprints were Tesbury Jack and California Dane, who fit the bill with regards to being nowhere near the BD or GS glitter, but were both beaten at their first start (both won their 2nd). Have I erred in my judgment?
I would be very interested to hear from others in regards to their thoughts. How do you spot a future sprinting star?
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