Equinox almost Eclipsed?
Equinox might have some company at the top of the world's best horse rankings, with star colt Paddington putting up a world class rating of 130 on Saturday night in the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse Stakes (2011m).
A field of four is disappointing by any race's standards but especially for a race of such quality, but nevertheless, Paddington beat a mare coming off a Timeform rating of 127 in Emily Upjohn which is no easy feat.
She provided plenty of resistance again but was a few pounds off her best, running to 123 at Sandown while he became just the second horse to crack 130 this year.
That followed up a 126 in the Group 1 St James' Palace Stakes (1609m) and even when you consider the honour roll of recent winners, Paddington is in, and indeed above esteemed company.
Vadeni, a French Derby winner and fellow three-year-old only had to run to 126 last year. St Mark's Basilica (128) and Ghaiyyath (129) top the recent Timeform ratings, with superstar mare Enable only needing to run 125 in 2019 and Roaring Lion just 124.
Paddington, according to Timeform at least, outranks them all which is a bit scary considering a) their record and b) he's only had seven starts.
T.W.A.T. ratings (which I'm told are the be-all-and-end-all) differ slightly and have Ghaiyyath equal at 130 and Enable just behind but for the most part, Paddington is effectively the best winner of the Eclipse in recent history.
Paddington may seem (and is) the fresher horse on the scene, with Equinox a four-year-old, but the Japanese star has only had one more start than Paddington and did win at Group 1 level twice at three, and now twice at four.
Unfortunately, we're basically no chance to see the two clash. Paddington is unlikely to step to a mile-and-a-half, which rules out the possibility of a Japan Cup attempt, and Equinox won't go to Europe this year, and probably not at all.
Paddington has options over 1600-2000m but the obvious one, the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes (2062m), might not be the target.
Stablemate and dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin may instead head that way, leaving the Group 1 Sussex Stakes (1609m) over a mile as the leading target for Paddington.
Auguste Rodin (rated 125) is actually more likely to face Equinox at some point, with the Derby winner earning a Japan Cup invitation, if they did choose to accept. The Breeder's Cup Turf wouldn't be out of the equation for either at some point as well.
Unfortunately though, we can only go off ratings and form lines, and at this stage I've still got Equinox comfortably ahead. I think his Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic (2500m) win had the makings of a horse even better than 130.
He also cleaned up Westover and Mostahdaf by 3.5 and 7 lengths respectively, both of whom have won Group 1s in Europe since.
Put Paddington up against Mostahdaf (which would be a great clash, if they did both end up going to the Juddmonte) and there'd be little between them. Equinox should only continue to strengthen his position in the Japanese Autumn, and hopefully we get more pieces of European form for him to put together.
