Storm on the Skyline

Storm Boy didn't need to be at his best to win on resumption in the Group 2 Skyline Stakes (1200m), and I don't think anyone really expected him to be at his best. We had him running to 116 in his Magic Millions win off two 107 runs prior, and he's split the middle here, running to 113.

The Skyline hasn't been the premier Golden Slipper lead-up of late, with next week's Todman typically favoured, but Gai Waterhouse has the formula right there with Dance Hero who was the last horse to do the double, also off a Magic Millions win.

Storm Boy isn't Dance Hero (yet), who beat Not A Single Doubt with a huge gap back to third in the Magic Millions of 2004, running to 123, then going 119 in the Skyline beating Fastnet Rock (again with daylight in third) before beating Charge Forward and Alinghi in the Slipper at 124.

Compared to more recent Skyline winners however, Storm Boy is right on track.

Year	Horse	Skyline Rating	Slipper Finish/Rating
2023	Corniche	109	DNR
2022	Promitto	105	DNR
2021	O'Liner	107	DNR
2020	Mamaragan	108 (debut)	3rd (112)
2019	Microphone	113	2nd (119)

I found it quite strange that the past three winners haven't even run in the Slipper, but of those who have, they've gone well. Microphone bumped into a very heavy track and a swimmer in Kiamichi while Mamaragan was rock-solid behind Farnan and Away Game.

Coming back to Storm Boy's performance alone, I thought it was more than fine. Once again he just seemed to get stronger as the race went on, his last 200m only 0.2 seconds slower than Prost and doing it softly over the last 50m.

113 is the exact same rating we have Straight Charge running to when winning the Silver Slipper, and there's every possibility he, and Espionage, nudge that 116 mark in the Todman. That means Storm Boy will need to run a new peak, but I think this is a perfect little pipe opener to push 120 in the Slipper.

Surround Stakes

In hindsight, it wasn't all that hard to find Tropical Squall at $8.50 in the Group 1 Surround Stakes (1400m). She'd already beaten basically all of her rivals in the Flight Stakes in the Spring, albeit over a mile, but had a peak rating that was equal to the Light Fingers having run it five months earlier, and theoretically, a three-year-old should improve from the Spring to the Autumn.

Tropical Squall only had to match her Flight rating to win her second Group One, running to 110, which is below the winning average for the Surround.

To find a lower rated Surround Stakes winner, we have to go all the way back to Only Words in 2004 when the race, then a Group 2, was run at Warwick Farm.

Most fillies in recent years are rated between 112-114 as a typical Surround winner, which isn't great news for this year's crop. We knew this going in to some extent, and at least the winner was first up, so there's something to hang their hat onto as they progress into open grade.

That seems the path for Tropical Squall too- she didn't stay in the Oaks at Flemington and was all out at the end of 2000m in the Ethereal when run down late. Maybe they have another crack at 2000m in the Vinery, but she'll likely bump into Orchestral there, who is top class and already has two Vinery winning ratings under her belt.

The horse to take out of the race is clearly Tutta La Vita, who was also first up and will definitely be on a Vinery/Oaks path. She ran the fastest last 200m of the race and looks right on track to be competitive in those staying races.

Roll On High has also run fine first-up, getting home okay late. I'd love to see them switch tact and target the Australasian Oaks in Adelaide over 2000m. 

I suspect Tropical Squall will end up in a Queen Of The Turf, potentially via the Coolmore Classic in three weeks' time, and a horse like Zougotcha, who ran to 118 first-up, will take a power of beating (and looks a good pre-noms bet at $7).