There are five games on Wednesday morning Australian time which we'll cover here, and five more over the next two mornings which will be previewed tomorrow.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v ARSENAL: Wednesday 31 January 6.30am
The clash of two sides with very different agendas – for Forest it is about survival now, particularly in the shadow of potential FFP sanctions, whereas Arsenal must feel their title chase is back on track after an easy win over Palace last time around.
The City Ground isn't the fortress it was in 2023. A win over Man U in the New Year's Eve match ended a run of four straight losses at home for Forest. However, since the arrival of Espirito Santo, they look more resilient. A defeat at Brentford highlighted defensive frailties which are never far away, but they do look far more dangerous going forward, with nine goals in their last four outings.
Arsenal tore a depleted and lethargic Palace to shreds to put a three-match winless streak behind them. The easing of commitments through the latter part of January should benefit the Gunners more than most. Although Rice is in some doubt for this one Arteta can field a strong side, unlike Forest who have been smashed with Afcon absentees and injuries.
Can't see anything other than an away win.
Prediction: Arsenal win ($1.40 with bet365*)
FULHAM v EVERTON: Wednesday 31 January 6.45am
Fulham has earned only three points from a possible 15 since the middle of December, but those three points were collected against Arsenal which shows what an effective side they can be on their day.
At home, the picture is a little rosier with four wins from their last five games, a shock 0-2 defeat at the hands of Burnley the only hiccup. Marco Silva has most key players fit and available as his side enters a decent run where they encounter just one side in the top six prior to mid-March. The Cottagers are not relegation contenders, and European qualification seems a stretch unless they drastically improve their away form. They are one of the few sides in the league that qualify as being in no-man's-land.
Everton's post-10-point penalty surge has well and truly hit the skids. Three defeats in a row preceded a plucky 0-0 draw with Villa at their last game, a run that has them just a point ahead of 18th-placed Luton who has a game in hand. The Toffees face Spurs and Man City after this, so it is reasonable to assume that anything but a win here will plunge them into the bottom three.
Fulham's recent record in this clash is outstanding, with three wins and a draw in the last four league meetings. However, there is certainly more at stake for Everton in this one than for the home side. Dyche is a great backs-to-the-wall manager and I'm confident they will get at least a point from this one.
Prediction: Draw ($3.25 with bet365*)
LUTON v BRIGHTON: Wednesday 31 January 6.45am
This should be a very entertaining match. Since 30 September, Luton has amassed just two points less than Brighton, but the perceptions of the sides are quite different.
Luton's late equaliser at Burnley was the subject of heated debate about goalkeeper protection, and what constitutes a foul. Regardless of which side of the fence you sit, a draw was the right result and continued the Hatters' determined push towards safety. Ross Barkley is still a class act and is the driving force in the centre of the park – he's been an outstanding acquisition.
After scoring at least once in the first 16 matches of the season, Brighton has now failed to find the net in three of their last five. They built up impressively time and time again against Wolves but in and around the opposition box they looked for one pass too many. The individual brilliance of Mitoma has been missing and his return from the Asian Cup can't come soon enough for De Zerbi.
Brighton put four past Luton on opening day to win comfortably, but they face a far more streetwise side now, particularly at Kenilworth Road. I fancy Brighton, just, but can't come at the short quote on offer.
Prediction: Brighton win ($1.66 with bet365*)
CRYSTAL PALACE v SHEFFIELD UTD: Wednesday 31 January 7.00am
The two most out-of-form sides in the league meet – each team has collected just six points from their last ten games.
The knives were out for Roy Hodgson after his side gave in meekly to a rampant Arsenal on 20 January. Fans can be fickle; their previous four matches included a win over Brentford and draws with Man City and Brighton. The issue preventing the Eagles from emerging from that 10th-15th spot they always land in is quality in front of goal. They are a side that often creates chances but doesn't convert, and Zaha's departure along with an injury-riddled season for Olise hasn't helped.
Sheffield Utd scored the latest goal in EPL history to grab a draw against West Ham last time around. A rugby tackle on Jarrod Bowen in their own box a minute later might have expunged that record from the books in a flash, but the infinite wisdom of the VAR crew saw the challenge as legitimate.
There is little doubt that the Blades are heading back to the Championship – no side has survived with so few points at this time of the season, and there is nothing in their personnel to suggest there are brighter days ahead.
I expect a response from Hodgson's side after the embarrassment at the Emirates and they can get all three points.
Prediction: Crystal Palace win ($1.61 with bet365*)
ASTON VILLA v NEWCASTLE: Wednesday 31 January 7.15am
A real sliding doors game. A loss for Villa ends their slim title hopes and puts them firmly in Tottenham's sights for the fourth spot. A loss for Newcastle cuts them well adrift of European qualification positions and could put a bit more pressure on Eddie Howe.
Since the heady days of early December and their consecutive wins over City and Arsenal, Villa has staggered to a late win over Burnley, draws with struggling Sheffield Utd and Everton, and a loss to Man U after leading by two at the break. Watkins hasn't scored since his late winner against Brentford on 17 December and overall the ruthless edge seems to have gone from their attack.
Newcastle continues to struggle with depleted troops, Joelinton the latest casualty – his season and indeed Newcastle career may be over. Four straight losses, and six from their last seven, has effectively put them out of Champions League qualification and any form of football on the continent next season looks unlikely.
The Magpies were imperious against Villa on opening day, winning 5-1 at St James Park. The fortunes of both sides have shifted seismically since then.
The home ground advantage tips things heavily towards Unai Emery's side and they can keep the dream alive for at least a few more days by grabbing all three points in this one.
Prediction: Aston Villa win ($1.90 with bet365*)
SUGGESTED WAGER:
All-up: Arsenal to win into Crystal Palace to win @$2.25 with bet365*
*Odds correct at 11.55am 29 January 2024.
