The Arima Kinen really saw Equinox stamp himself, at least in Japanese circles, as the best horse in the world going into 2023 but unfortunately isn't back to defend his crown at Nakayama this year.
While Equinox hasn't been unbackable throughout his career, with him out this Sunday we get a nice open market and plenty of opportunity for a Christmas Eve, very last-minute stocking filler.
There's a good mix of top stayers accompanied by the two best (male) three-year-olds tackling the older horses for the first time.
The highest rated horse going in is Justin Palace, coming off a career peak of 127 behind Equinox in the Tenno Sho, following ratings of 123, 126 and 123. His only two defeats from his past four starts have been placings behind Equinox and they've been over 2000m and 2200m.
He's far better suited at 2500m and is going much better than last year's Arima Kinen. With no Equinox to contend with this year, he's going to take plenty of beating.
Through Seven Seas comes back from an Arc mission, ultimately failed but hardly disgraced in fourth. She did split Equinox and Justin Palace at Hanshin however that was one of Equinox's lowest rating wins, and Justin Palace has run better numbers in better races.
The other top mare here is Stars On Earth, who unlike Justin Palace comes through the Japan Cup. She hasn't had a lot of racing since her excellent three-year-old campaign but was back to her best last start, beaten 5 lengths by Equinox but only 1 length off Liberty Island who would be favourite here. She ran to 120 there, 124 after her allowance, which puts her right in the finish and she does have the ability to land right on speed here.
The two older males that are certainly capable on their day are Titleholder and Do Deuce. Both ran in the Japan Cup, Do Deuce good in fourth running to 123, Titleholder sitting a distant second to Panthalassa but running just fairly in fifth.
Titleholder's best is absolutely good enough to win this. Three starts ago he ran to 127 over the Nakayama 2500m, winning by 8 lengths. No Panthalassa certainly helps him get into his rhythm and if he's at double figures on the day he might be worth having a saver.
Do Deuce has run 124-113-123 at his past three- going well, but it's off what will likely be required to win an Arima Kinen. He may be more likely to place, but less likely to win than Titleholder.
The Japan Derby quinella come here trying to emulate Equinox winning the race as a three-year-old. I was convinced Sol Oriens was a top-liner off his Satsuki Sho win, at Nakayama, but he hasn't quite gone on with it.
He should've won the Derby if not for an outstanding Damian Lane ride on Tastiera but two ratings of 114 since aren't up to this.
Tastiera has only raced once since his Derby win and was solid in second in a strange Kikuka Sho over 3000m. Sol Oriens back to Nakayama is interesting, especially with a jockey change as Kawada goes on. If the 'King' can get him to land closer he might be surprising but it's a pretty big leap to make and we're not really getting the price.
Australian books have Justin Palace a narrow favourite from Stars On Earth and I think that's right, however Japanese market predictors have the three-year-olds much shorter so the market on the day will be interesting.
I'm happy to back Justin Palace at the $4.50 mark and the one that is good enough to win on his day is Titleholder, who I could have something on, especially if he's touching double figures on the day.
