The barrier draw is complete and the stage is set as the world's attention turns to Sha Tin on Sunday.

After a few years of covid restrictions, the gates to Hong Kong are fully open once more and the internationals have made their presence known. With 24 raiders engaged this year, it's the largest number of international's the Hong Kong International Races has seen since 2018.

Early markets still have things priced up as though the locals will get the better of the visitors 3-1, but on deeper analysis, it may not seem as straight forward as the market may have it.

The Hong Kong Cup is the crown jewel at HKIR and by far the most interesting race on the program.

Hong Kong Cup (Group 1, 2000m)

The key starting point to this race is – of course – one of the local heroes on the day, Romantic Warrior. Fair in the Turnbull before a gutsy victory in the Cox Plate and now back on his home deck. He bolted in here 12 months ago and he should just do the same considering he's now a Cox Plate winner, right?

It feels a little off to say that the Hong Kong Cup this year will take more winning than the Cox Plate, but that's exactly what it looks like.

Romantic Warrior was brave in the Cox Plate, but there are obvious niggles coming out. He beat Mr. Brightside and Alligator Blood, both pegged more as milers than middle distance horses, and ran right up to the rating he'd run three times previously.

I must preface by saying that Romantic Warrior's level is very, very good, but is that just him? Can he squeeze another couple of pounds out and lift his Racing & Sports Rating past his rivals? That's the question heading into the Hong Kong Cup.

Speaking to Racing and Sports Hong Kong Handicapper Simon Dinopoulos, the rumour swirling around Sha Tin is that the son of Acclamation hasn't trained on since his triumph in the Cox Plate. These are only rumours though and the real talking happens when nobody is at all. 

Both Prognosis and Luxembourg have ratings to not only match Romantic Warrior, but ratings that surpass the career peak of the four-time G1 winner.

Japanese raider Prognosis was somewhat unlucky to finish behind Romantic Warrior at Sha Tin in April and has proven that his effort in the QEII Cup was no fluke. Brilliant in two efforts since then, including behind Equinox most recently, he's right up to the mark and has already proven that the travel to Hong Kong doesn't knock him about.

Some bookmakers have Luxembourg at double figure odds heading into the Hong Kong Cup and that seems very generous. His 125 Racing and Sports Rating from his last-start second to Auguste Rodin is the exact rating Romantic Warrior ran to win the Cox Plate. Aiden O'Brien's charge has run a better figure twice in his career, going where Romantic Warrior has not previously and posting elite time figures in the process.

There's no denying the grand stature that Romantic Warrior has built in Hong Kong, and it's going to take a couple of good ones to drag him down, but now seems the right time to be striking if you are Prognosis, or Luxembourg,

Hong Kong Mile (Group 1, 1600m)

The title of this says it all - history is made to be broken.

Much of the pre-race chatter has been about Golden Sixty having to defy history to score his third Hong Kong International Mile, but the ratings are on his side heading into Sunday's feature.

123, 125+ and 124 in his last three first-up efforts all rate higher than anything else in the field, and the price currently on offer is the same he started in the G1 Stewards' Cup when taking on Romantic Warrior.

He's drawn the outside barrier (14/14) in Sunday's feature which throws another curveball as he attempts to joing Good Ba Ba with three Hong Kong International Miles, but it's not often a horse increases its chances of winning a race by staying home and not participating. That's exactly what has happened with Golden Sixty.

The G2 Jockey Club Mile threw up a little bit of a surprise with last year's International Mile winner California Spangle failing badly and pulling up with no real excuse. That race was won by Beauty Eternal who made a good jump in his ratings to where many thought he would end up, but it's hard to see him challenging one of Hong Kong's greats.

Of the others, Namur is currently double-figure odds and may represent some value away from Golden Sixty. She's posted back-to-back peaks with R&S and is coming flying into Hong Kong breathing fire. If she can take the next step and surpass G60 remains to be seen, but her ratings profile suggests she could give the local champion something to think about.

Hong Kong Sprint (Group 1, 1200m)

This race looks to be dominated by the World's Best Sprinter, Lucky Sweynesse.

The five-year-old got beaten in his first two starts this season, but bounced back to form with a good win in the G2 Jockey Club Sprint. The R&S Rating produced there is very similar to what he ran to in The Sprint Cup before exploding to run 129 – the highest rating by a sprinter anywhere in the world – in The Chairman's Sprint Prize.

Lucky Sweynesse should be spot on to get right back to his best on Sunday and it looks as though it's his race to lose. Plenty was made early in the season that he may not have 'come up' this season, but the Punters' Preamble and Weekend Review Podcasts were confident he wasn't going as badly as the noise was making out.

Zac Purton's tone, as well as those over in Hong Kong, has seemingly changed within the past week, indicating the World's Best Sprinter is back in business for Sunday's assignment.

Highfield Princess and Wellington are priced up as the only dangers to Lucky Sweynesse and the ratings align with what the market says. The English raider comes in off a last-start win at Longchamp but has only run her peak rating (125) once this season and while Wellington was good first-up it's hard to see him turning the tables on Sunday.

Hong Kong Vase (Group 1, 2400m)

Only three locals are engaged in the Vase this season, and they hold up the field at the bottom of the market. Right at the opposite end, Lebensstil is the one heading the market, and rightfully so. After the scratching of Shahryar, all attention has turned to Lebensstil with R&S' stalwart Simon Dinopoulos mentioning he has been the "talk of trackwork" this week.

Lebensstil is the new kid on the block, jumping in his ratings when getting out to 2200m last start and winning comfortably and giving the indication there's more to come from the son of Real Steel. Only six starts into his career with a rating of 118, he looks as though he's ready to make the jump to the next level and looks a perfect candidate to come to Hong Kong and notch up his first Group 1 victory.

HKIR 2023 Selections:

Vase: Lebensstil

Sprint: Lucky Sweynesse

Mile: Golden Sixty

Cup: Prognosis and Luxembourg.