The two features at Gosford may be The Coast and The Cup but arguably the best race on the card is the Takeover Target, with the progressive Think About It resuming on a Stradbroke path.
While I could make a case for Clemenceau to beat him I don't think there's much value in any of the major races and so we look earlier to Race 4 for the best on the card, with three-year-old filly Fall For Cindy looking a fair gamble at $3.90 with TABtouch.
She's easily the most lightly raced horse in the field with just five starts under her belt and is on a strong ratings progression. She was solid in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) at Randwick two back when running to 94, beaten just under 4 lengths, and backed that up with a tough win last start at the Kenso, running to 96.
A big gap back to third there as favourite already has her rated right in the finish and I wouldn't be surprised if she's getting near the 100 mark shortly which makes her very hard to beat. Expect Schiller can get her into the 1-1 with a bit of luck early and she should look the winner.
For the each-way play, I've settled on Sir Lamorak in Race 5. I think the race won by Pretty Amazing (who looks a big chance in The Coast later) is the right form reference for this with a strong time there and outside of the winner, Sir Lamorak was as good as anything through the line.
He hasn't really fired a shot in Australia but was a clear forgive first up for Kris Lees and last start suggested he's ready to peak now up in trip. His overseas form at a peak rating of 109 would win this and while he probably won't get near that again, I do think he's ready to improve on his 92 rating last start.
He was just edged out for second by another import in Hometruths who has some more upside but Sir Lamorak is twice the price and has the advantage of being able to race on speed, whereas Hometruths is all but assured to settle near the tail.
At $9/3 with TABtouch, I think he's worthy of a bet in an open race.
SYDNEY SPECIALS (Odds courtesy of TABtouch)
BET OF THE DAY: Race 4 #8 Fall For Cindy @ $3.90* with TABtouch
EACH WAY PLAY: Race 5 #10 Sir Lamorak @ $9/3* with TABtouch
*odds correct at 3:00pm 4/05/23
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