Cox Plate Picture

Melbourne

Mr Brightside was expected to win the Group 2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley, starting $1.65, but the manner in which he won was even a bit better than his odds might suggest, cruising to a 4.5 length win over Inspirational Girl.

Racing And Sports have him running a new peak with Timeform for the win, posting a strong figure of 121. This is up from his last three starts where he rated 114, including his Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m) win.

It signalled that he can be a contender in the W.S. Cox Plate (2040m) if Ben & Jd Hayes head that way, which I think is almost a guarantee at this point, he would be in with a shot.

TAB currently have him $8 third pick in the market behind Anamoe ($4) and Zaaki ($4.50), who we'll touch on a bit later. For reference, Anamoe's peak figure is 125+ in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and returned at 125 in the Group 1 Winx Stakes (1400m).

Now, a 121 rating has next to no chance of a winning a Cox Plate. In fact, no horse has won the race since the turn of the century running ≤121, the lowest being Pinker Pinker and Savabeel in 2011 and 2004 respectively, both running 122.

Mr Brightside will need to improve a couple of lengths to challenge the likes of Anamoe, Zaaki and even a horse like I'm Thunderstruck, who rated higher in the Doncaster due to the 5kg he gave Mr Brightside, but Saturday's rating puts him firmly in the top 3 mix.

Sydney

Zaaki justified trainer Annabel Neasham's decision not to scratch despite the track being downgraded to a heavy 10, recording his second Group 2 Tramway Stakes (1400m) win in consecutive years.

He showed he's back as good as ever, matching his 124 rating from last year's win. Interestingly, besides his Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m) win, Zaaki's next best career ratings have come over 1400m in this race.

Last year, he went straight to the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) second up, which is an option again, but Neesham hinted that the Group 1 George Main Stakes (1600m) at Randwick is her preferred option in two weeks if Zaaki comes through the heavy track run well.

That could set up a mouth-watering clash with Anamoe, who is likely to stay in Sydney for his next run. The two have only met once, in last year's Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (2000m), Anamoe finishing down the track in very testing conditions and Zaaki just nosed out by Think It Over.

Anamoe and Zaaki are still the clear leading Cox Plate contenders given there looks a lack of top line international talent coming. With Real World (125 from his Queen Anne second to Baaeed) not coming, the market has singled out El Bodegon as the potential raider.

The three-year-old colt who is now under the care of Chris Waller is rated 113 off his five-length second to French superstar Vadeni and would need to improve sharply to be a serious contender. Not impossible given he's only had nine starts but the market has definitely overreacted and tried to grasp at any international that might be running.

Speaking of three-year-olds, we haven't seen one worthy of a Cox Plate slot. Fireburn (118+) is the best of a very weak bunch and probably 100-1 of heading to the race.

So, what does this all mean?

By my reasoning, I'd have four horses ahead of Mr Brightside in my Cox Plate market.

Anamoe deserves to be a narrow favourite over Zaaki after returning with a near career peak first up, El Bodegon's French form lines and weight-for-age ratings have him right in the mix, and I'm Thunderstruck resumed with an eye catching second in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m), rating 121 (equal to Mr Brightside's Feehan), with a peak of 124 when half a length behind that horse in the Doncaster, giving him 5kg. The other one is Western Empire, who rated 121 when winning the Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m) and has more to come after a pass mark first up when needing the run. I think he'll improve sharply in Saturday's Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and might suit a high pressure 2040m better than Mr Brightside on what we've seen.

Or, in an easier to read, horribly American sports style power rankings format:

1. Anamoe
2. Zaaki
3. I'm Thunderstruck
4. Western Empire
5. Mr Brightside

The two Group 1 miles (Makybe Diva & George Main), as well as the Underwood, should put a few more pieces into place. Next start will be the acid test for Mr Brightside.