Canberra

R2 River Ronald - keen on this one, excellent run last start when wide the trip and still kicked on to almost grab first prize, should be a good price.

R3 Grand Rhumba - not sure a good price will be available but this is a very good sprinter. Anything above 2 donkey kicks will be acceptable.

R5 Country Kate - the kay looks her go and there is plenty of speed engaged to suit this big finisher.

Most confident - The Rhumba
Most value - The Ronald

The one that is most likely to win now due to murphy's law - Kate Bush

I will list my blackbookers for each day (when I get the time) and will post all BB's in this thread.

Why am I doing this? Not sure really, christmas is around the corner and I'm in a giving mood :) (or misleading, depending on the results!!)

Anyway, it's all a bit of fun and I will post results to see if I can turn a profit this month. Prices will be based on best of NSW TAB and STAB on non metro day meetings and best of all three totes on metro tracks or when available.

Ok, away we go....

Kyneton race 1 - Light Belle.
Muswellbrook race 7 - Mob Rule.

I could have given so much more....this watch....

Keen on two today..

EF r7 - On the Fridge
Ade r6 - Royal Ida

Keen on two today...

Railway - Gilded Venom.

Eagle Farm r6 - Albert The Fat (big fan of this fella).

Make sure you watch this sprinting sensation go around in the third at Eagle Farm.

I'm not only on the bandwagon, I'm going to drive it. All aboard THE CHAK EXPRESS.

Eagle Farm Race 3 - CHAKVETADZE.

It's that time of the year again. The US Masters (my favorite sporting event) is on this week and I've worked on some stats for selected players that were paying under $200 to win the tournement. I've gone back to the year 2000 up until last year. The categories I have selected and the reasons for there selection are:
1. Tournements played and cuts made - players who keep making the cut are obviously suited at Augusta. You can find some value in head to head betting where a long priced player who loves the masters is up against a shorter priced player who doesn't perform at the Masters. High priced players that consistently make the cut are: Fred Couples (hasn't missed the cut in the past 6 Masters, loves Augusta, although he is getting on), Migel Angel Jimenez, Stewart Cink, Justin Leonard, KJ Choi, Bernhard Langer. Anyone of these players against Colin Montgomerie or Michael Campbell in head to head betting is a value bet.
2. First round average - this is the average score for all first rounds played over the past 6 years. Can be used for 2 reasons. First is the obvoius low first round score bet where Chris DiMarco (67.75), Phil Mickelson (70.33), Darren Clarke (70.33), Vijay Singh (71.17), Sergio Garcia (71) are good bets with a first round average under par. Chris DiMarco wasn't playing well going into this event last year but he had the lowest first round and it took Tiger to beat him, he has similar form going into the Masters this year. The second use for this stat is if you like a player to win the tournement but that player is at short odds (Tiger Woods) you can wait until after the first round when there price normally goes out if they have an average round. Tiger, for example, has a first round average of 73.33. If he has a round similar to his average you can almost be certain that you will get better price than his current quote of $3.25. In fact I followed his price last year and at one stage he was $13 to win the tournement when he was 8 or 9 off the lead mid second round. There can be a 8 shot turnaround in the last nine holes at Augusta!!
3. Scoring average - this is a telling stat. The players who have done well in the past have a scoring average under par and as you can see the big five are well under. There is a bet where its the big five (tiger, phil, ernie, vijay and retief) vs the field which could be used as a saver.
4. Average finishing position - can be used to line players up in head to head betting. A low average finishing position with a high number of games played is what we're after here.
5. Best result and worst result - obvious stats that are good to check for consistency. Be careful backing against a player in head to head betting that has a low worst result score. Players to avoid betting against are The big five (Els only had one bad year) and DiMarco.


US Masters 2000-2005 statistics for selected players.


Player Played Cuts Made 1st rnd Ave Scoring Ave Ave finishing pos. Best Result Worst Result
Tiger Woods 6 6 73.33 -6.67 7.5 won 22
Phil Mickelson 6 6 70.33 -6.67 4.5 won 10
Ernie Els 6 6 72.83 -3.5 11.33 2 47
Vijay Singh 6 6 71.17 -4.67 7.17 won 18
Retief Goosen 6 5 72.67 -0.17 20.17 2 mc
Sergio Garcia 6 4 71 2.17 30 4 mc
Jim Furyk 5 4 72.8 -0.6 20.4 4 mc
Luke Donald 1 1 68 -5 3 3 3
Chris DiMarco 5 4 67.75 -6 7.5 2 12
Davis LoveIII 6 4 73.5 1 23.67 6 mc
Padraig Harrington 6 4 73.83 1.17 27.33 5 mc
David Toms 5 3 74.2 4.2 35 8 mc
Jose Maria Olazabel 6 4 72.17 1 26.17 4 mc
Adam Scott 4 3 74.75 4.25 28.75 9 mc
Darren Clarke 6 5 70.33 2.5 29.83 17 mc
Mike Weir 6 5 74 0 22.5 won mc

Colin Montgomerie 5 2 74.6 4.8 36.6 14 mc
Kenny Perry 4 2 75.5 6.75 42 29 mc
Angel Cabrera 6 3 72.5 1.67 30.67 9 mc
Michael Campbell 4 0 76.5 7.25 50 mc mc
Chad Campbell 3 1 75.33 6.33 39 17 mc
Stuart Appelby 6 3 74 6.67 41 22 mc
Robert Allenby 5 3 74 6 43 29 mc
Tim Clark 3 2 73 6 34 13 mc
Fred Couples 6 6 74 2.5 24.33 6 39
Rod Pampling 1 1 73 -4 5 5 5
Scott Verplank 5 4 72.2 3.4 30 8 mc
Rory Sabatini 2 0 73 4 50 mc mc
Bernhard Langer 6 5 73.5 1.5 23.33 4 mc
K J Choi 3 3 72.67 0.67 23 3 33
Justin Leonard 6 5 74.67 3.83 28.83 13 mc
Stewart Cink 5 4 74 2.8 27.8 17 mc
Thomas Bjorn 5 3 73.2 4.4 34.2 mc mc
Migel Angel Jiminez 5 4 72.8 2.6 29.8 mc mc
Mark Hensby 1 1 69 -4 5 5 5
Tom Lehman 5 3 73.8 0.2 27.4 mc mc
Trevor Immelman 2 1 75 2.5 27.5 mc mc
Mark O'Meara 6 4 73.83 2.5 31 mc mc



Bets I'll be targeting:

Woods winner aftre round 1 - if he has an average first round, got to have faith that class will shine through.

Phil Mickelson top 5 - he's in form and has finished in the top five four out of the past 6 years. $2.50 IAS is best price at the moment.

Big 5 vs field - currently $1.65 so not sure.

Tiger Woods top 5 - $1.96 on betfair for a guy who has won three of the past five Masters and is back on track with his swing....priceless...no wait there is a price.

Head to Head

KJ Choi over M Campbell - MC has failed to make the cut at his last four attempts. KJ is a rock solid player.

D Clarke over C Campbell - another Campbell that struggles at the Masters, Clarke's form at the Masters is solid.

C DiMarco over M Weir - the extra length of the Augusta layout won't suit Weir's game, DiMarco has an impeccable record at Augusta.

Zac Johnson over Lee Westwood - Westwood struggles here, Zac in good form having just run tied second to Mickelson last week.

B Langer over C Montgomerie - the toughest mind in the game up against a mental midget. Monty just can't play in the US, Langer rock solid.

J Leonard over B Crane - I'll take an old dog over a young guns first Masters tournement over 72 holes every day of the week.

I'm just waiting for the markets on Betfair to get into the "swing of things" before I tee off on some bets.

Hope this formats well.

G'day all

I've decided to hang up the boots once and for all.

I have enjoyed my time here at R&S and would like to thank all those who made it a rewarding and amusing experience.

I did enjoy the many competitions and appreciate the time and effort it took people like Muirs, Mcgarret, Spinning Knight, Camel, the king Tonto etc to run them. These comps kept me interested and in touch (sometimes) when I went for a spell and were invaluable in improving my selection methods.

Although I did not contribute much in the form of discussions I enjoyed some of the quality thoughts and threads in the forum. It's just a shame a handful of cyber thugs ruin it for the rest (here they come!!).

I also enjoyed the wacky humour of Pinkline, sensational wit of Moleboy, and others who I can't seem to recall right now (note to cyber thugs insert memory joke here).

I would also like to thank the staff of Racing and Sports.

That's it from me.

Adios Amigos

Jords

2005 Masters Preview

I thought I?d do some stats for those that are interested in this year?s masters. They may help you find the winner and make some money out of exotic bets like top Aussie, 72 hole head to head, etc. Then again the stats may confuse you even more :)

Reasons why I chose these stats and how they can help you pick a winner,
Scoring average last 5 years: a good indicator of whether the player likes the course and whether the course favours his game or not.
Best finish last 5 years: shows whether he can get the job done. A low number with a poor aver finishing position indicates a flash in the pan performance somewhere along the way.
Ave finishing position last 5 years: a good indicator of consistency.
Cuts made against played last 5 years: also a good indicator of consistency, you don?t want to back a player and do your dough before the weekend.

This will prob look like a mess but here goes.

Player Scoring Ave. last 5 masters. Best finish last 5 masters. Ave. finishing position last 5 masters. Cuts made against played last 5 masters.
Robert Allenby +7.8 29th 47th 3/5
Stuart Appleby +6.4 22nd 52nd 2/5
Angel Cabrera +0.8 9th 33rd 3/5
Paul Casey -2 6th 6th 1/1
K.J.Choi -2 3rd 9th 2/2
Fred Couples +1.6 6th 21st 5/5
Chris Dimarco -4 6th 9th 3/3
Ernie Els -6.2 2nd 4th 5/5
Carlos Franco +0.3 6th 19th 3/3
Jim Furyk -1.5 4th 21st 3/4
Sergio Garcia +1.6 4th 25th 4/5
Retief Goosen +1 2nd 27th 4/5
Padraig Harrington +0.5 5th 22nd 4/5
Bernhard Langer +1.6 4th 27th 4/5
Davis Love III +0.25 6th 20th 3/4
Phil Mickelson -7.4 1st 3rd 5/5
Jose Maria Olazabal -0.6 4th 23rd 4/5
Vijay Singh -4.8 1st 7th 5/5
Mike Weir +0.8 1st 25th 4/5
Tiger Woods -5.6 1st 8th 5/5
Tom Lehman +0.5 6th 31st 2/4
Adam Scott +3.6 9th 37th 2/3
Craig Parry +6.3 25th 40th 2/3





The main stat to look at is the scoring average over the past 5 masters. Any player that has an average below par and has good recent form is worth a bet. Here are some of my thoughts,

First of all the big four,
Phil Mickelson: has an excellent aver, never missed the cut in the last 5 years, and is in terrific form with a recent win at the bell south classic. He plays a more conservative game these days which eliminates the big disasters from his scorecard. He will be there when the whips are cracking. Very hard to beat. He would be the fav if I was a bookie.

Ernie Els: excellent aver, loves the course, produces under pressure (excellent final round last year only to be pipped at the post), an excellent putter. He will also be there at the business end. Bet with confidence.

Tiger Woods: Looks like his close to his best again which spells big danger to the rest of the field but he has lost the aura he once possessed. He will have to win it rather than those around him collapse under the pressure of competing with Tiger. I think he is unders, I would have him on the third line of betting behind Mickelson and Els.

Vijay Singh: very solid tee to green but struggles with the putter and you need to putt well to have any chance at the masters. He will be thereabouts because of his solid game and length but his putter will let him down. My money won?t be on him.

The dangers to the big four,

Jose Maria Olazabel: always plays well here, has finished in the top ten at his last 3 starts this year, has a great short game which comes in handy on these tricky greens. He is worth a bet with handicap conditions, he is paying $22 with +6 handicap. I?ll be backing him each way as well.

Chris Dimarco: has a good aver, was in it last year until the last round where he faltered badly. He has had an inconsistent start to the year with the runners up prize in the accenture match play his best effort. Putts well but can crack under pressure. Plays well at the masters but take him on trust.

Jim Furyk: an excellent putter slowly getting back to some decent form after an injury enforced lay off. Rough show.

Retief Goosen: this guy has got game. A super putter on fast greens which looks like it will be at this years masters. In good form with a good showing at the Bellsouth classic and he is super cool under pressure. Definitely worth a wager.

K.J.Choi: seems to like Augusta. His year has been solid without being flash. He is a very solid player and is a danger if he gets the putter working. Good each way value.

Paul Casey: Good performance at his first masters last year, will have benefited a lot from the outing. Hits it a country mile and is a very good up and comer. Hasn?t had a great year and can lose the plot when things aren?t going his way. A good roughie but don?t spend too much on him.

Davis Love III: always plays well at the masters without threatening. He has had a solid start to the year. Struggles with the putter at times. Worth a wager in a 72 hole head to head battle. IAS has him at $1.95 against Adam Scott and Sportstab has him $1.85 against Sergio Garcia.

Here are some players who seem to consistently do well in the first round at the masters (for those who want to back the first round leader),

Angel Cabrera, Darren Clarke, Chris Dimarco, Sergio Garcia, Retief Goosen, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Davis Love III, Phil Mickelson, Nick Price.


Cheers and good luck to anyone who is having a bet,
Jords

My top raters for this saturday:-
SYDNEY
R1 No2 ARIANTE
R2 No9 SHARP
R3 No1 HIGHEST
MELBOURNE
R5 No7 WHITE MIST
QLD
R5 No14 PRIVATE STEER
R7 No10 HASNA
R8 No1 MAKE MINE MAGIC
ADELAIDE
R4 No1 CREST OF GOLD

Sydney Race 2 No 9 SHARP