I am surprised that there are no posts on here about Friday night's game. Maybe, they have just been pushed down the list by the dozen or so cut & paste "Australian Racing is rubbish / I told you so" posts from Khaptingly.

Its hard to see just how Hawthorn found a way to win, with Roughead / Franklin / Lewis / Sewell / Rioli / Hodge all having limited impact - on top of the 2 goal swing thanks to the Rioli mark / Murdoch goal, and their inability to kick straight.

But I guess things finally conspired to fall Hawthorn's way. There was something very similar about Geelong's final surge through the centre - it was reminiscent of the last surge to Hawkins in 2012. Johnson's inbound kick was only a meter off perfection. Varcoe's was too (his, however, was the easier kick). Caddy played well, but Chapman may have got them home.

Can you imagine the hype around the curse had Geelong been 3 points in front when Rioli marked on the siren.......before chipping to Franklin?

As an aside, here are the cumulative scores from Hawthorn's last 3 "big" finals (PFs & GFs):

Hawthorn 38.52 (280)
Opposition 43.22 (280)

Its set to be a ripping game - the seasoned finalists Vs the first timers (well 20 of them), will Freo's better PF form translate to a win?, can Hawthorn kick straight?, Franklin's Elbow Vs McPharlin's Leg, Mitchell Vs Crowley, Sandilands Vs Everyone, Pavlich Vs Lake, did Freo play their GF on Saturday?, can Ross Lyon finally win one?, will Freo's game adapt as well to the MCG?, will Hawthorn atone for 2012, will Burgoyne again be the difference?

Got my tickets - bring it on.

Shamrocker at $61 ew reads as value.

Duel G1 winner (against males).
Proven to have a strong sprint off a quick tempo (Aust Guineas).
Trainer missed CC for CP. Noting she is aimed for MC, but will now be wound up in her campaign.
Exempt from ballot.
No query at distance.
Last start was much improved - hit line well / untouched.
Meets all Turnbull rivals better on weights.
Only 1.5 len behind Jimmy C in Autumn.
Weak WFA year.
Helmet / Descarado / Glass H should ensure good pace, high pressure race.
Handles all track conditions.

MV query, but so are the two faves, Descarado & Secret Admirer.

Jimmy C the clear danger for me, but at the price she is great value.

She's the finest public orator since Bernie Fraser, but now I seek answers to ascertain whether her latest baby is:

A visionary, environmentally-driven saviour of our childrens' children

or

A socialist, bureaucracy-creating, round-robin, scattergun policy that doesnt align rewards with behaviours.

Doing the form is tough enough some times, but lining up Internationals takes it to a whole new level. Certain considerations that are not relevant between domestic rivals come into play. Such considerations include intangibles such as acclimatisation and adjustment to racing patterns. But there are some tangibles that can be obtained from the form guide. For the record, here are my thoughts on this year’s Internationals, and their main rivals:

Scorpion: With G1 UK form, wins up to 2937m and wins on Good and Heavy tracks, he has a lot going for him. However, looking a bit closer reveals some weaknesses. In his last 6 starts (dating back to Nov 06, he has raced in field sizes averaging less than 8. He has never won a race with more than 10 horses in it and the only real blot of his recent record was a 13l beating in a field of 15. How will he go in a full field of 24? Since Sept 05, he has raced outside the UK three times – 10th in France (see above), 5th in the US (beaten 5l) and 7th in Hong Kong (beaten 5l). History shows tough and adaptable raiders do well in the Cup, these facts, along with his 58.5kg, place enough doubt in my mind to risk him.

Mahler: One of the strangest entries ever, and therefore one of the most difficult to line up. We have heard since it landed of a plunge on this horse. It is now into $11-$13. For a horse with 6 starts, I find this amazing. The horse has never raced out of the UK, is a Northern Hemisphere 3yo, ran 5th of 9 last start and was beaten 20l in its only run above G3 class. That alone rates it well above a $13 chance in my eyes. On the positive, it has no weight, has rung up some easy wins (including in 15 & 16 horse fields) and is in a strong stable (although that may make it the Hatha Anna / Milstreet of the field). For me, if a horse with this history was to win, it would be a darker day for Australian racing than the day Blutigeroo won the BMW.

Tungsten Strike: Normally when I see 2 Ascot Gold Cup runs plus another over 3600m in a horse’s recent record, I would rule it out immediately. However, this horse seems extremely inconsistent, and his last start was his best for some time. A line through Land n Stars and he is right in it, but its never quite that simple. He still only seems to produce his best in small fields and he may never have left the UK. His profile does not appear versatile enough and I am happy to risk him.

Tacit Agreement: Came over boasting some impressive winning statistics / margins. His Herbert Power runs says he has no chance at all.

Purple Moon: The much spruiked runner of the Caulfield Cup. He has show he can cope with Australian tracks and that he has a turn of foot. If he settled closer, as the trainer wanted, who knows what would have happened. Add to that he has no distance doubt (though he is unknown in the wet) and he appears around his right quote. However, the Cup history is littered with “back me” runs in the Caulfield Cup that don’t translate on Melbourne Cup day – Eye Popper, Hugs Dancer etc. The barrier will be critical for this bloke (especially if they use a UK jockey). If he draws wide, I think his hopes plummet.

Blue Monday: Raced back into calculations with an excellent effort on Saturday. Weighted right to his best but has not won beyond 2200 (only had two 2400 starts). From a Melbourne Cup perspective, only his 2nd up run was not encouraging. If he runs the trip, he can be very competitive and $20 appears his right price. Unlike many Euros who “defect” he has a history of multiple starts within a 3 month period, so that adjustment will not be beyond him.

And here is who they have to beat:

Master O’Reilly: Well, he ticks most of the boxes. He is in form, well weighted, is from a good stable, is up to the class, can handle the wet, loves the track, has shown he is not one dimensional, and has a real turn of foot. I feel there are only two things that can beat him. Of course, one of those is luck, either before the race, during the race or in the barrier stall. The other is the distance. He has to travel 600m further than he has done before. Until he does it, we can be sure he will stay. Horses like Faithful Son, Grey Song and Freemason all looked born for the Flemington 3200, but none of them stayed when it counted. His CC win was powerful enough (though he had every favour) for mine to say he is worth the “risk”. Another thing I like is that, despite his lack of experience, this is not his first campaign at the distance range. He was winning over 2400+ last time out and that will be a very beneficial grounding. For me, there are enough points in his favour to say that $6 is good value.

This is getting long, so having covered the main point of my post (Internationals Vs Main Local chance), I will keep the following brief:

Miss Finland: The 3200m is just too big a doubt in my mind to have her at $9. I also feel that, as happens with many top 3yos, she is not quite the horse she was (only a length or two short, but short nonetheless). The Cox Plate is her main target and only very special horses can manage duel targets of such differing distances.

Efficient: Williams seems to be having a bit both way. He says he wants to win the MC and CP, but in trying to win both he increases his chance of winning neither. Yet to be proven at the distance, and although I think he can be competitive in the CP, he needed a better staying preparation to be in the MC mix.

Maybe Better: Much discussed on this forum and now that he has an injury doubt, I could not consider him at his current price. I cannot think of any MC winners that have overcome an injury scare mid preparation (but many that failed – She’s Archie, Tawqeet).

Zipping: Refer Efficient. This horse is really no chance in the Cox Plate and a 2400m start would have done his MC prospects the world of good. Not sure he sees the 3200 right out (ala Pentastic), but with a year under the belt and a weaker race, he could be thereabouts.

On A Jeune: Yes, I do have a soft spot for this horse and his closing sectionals on Saturday suggest he is back to his best (well, better than 2006 anyway). At $17, he is not great value but I feel much better will be available on the day. Again, his program has confused me as I felt the Geelong Cup was a much better option as a final start. But then again, I am no horse trainer.

So, for now, that is my two cents. Or three cents.

Cheers

Pindi

The 1st week of the finals is down and as only one person tipped all 4 winners, that means we have a winner and my competition is ended after only 1 week.

Congratulations go to Squid69 for being the only one to select Geelong, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Collingwood.

Well done, Squid. I hope you had the all-up.

As for the rest of the finals, I think the Cats are flag certanties. They have been superb again today.

Full results are:

Squid 69 4
Snorki 3
The Shu 3
Wilks 3
Wortel 3
Nathan 3
Pindi 3
Dazapav 2
Lilbooky 2
Alcatraz 2
Morewinners 2
Waikikamukau 2
Develop 2
Moneymike 2
Jet 2
Nigeltufnel 2
JMF 2
Poindexter 2
The Urger 2
Mr Lister 2
Seashells 2
Sinatra 1
Minister4AmberFluid 1
Gallopon 1
Kanga Island 1
Bondy 1
Giddygal 1
Laminate 1
Trevalma 1
Percy1 1
Doosra 1
Pieeater619 0

For anyone who is interested, I will run a knockout finals competition.

Rules are:

Submit your selections for the 4 games this week (Gee v Roos, PA v WCE, Coll v Syd, Haw v Adel) by midnight Friday.

Selections are to be submitted on this thread.

I will start a new thread next week listing the tipsters who are still alive (ie. those who selected 4 winners) and they will need to tip in the 2 games in the 2nd week.

And so on until GF day.

On Grand Final day, margins will be requested to determine the winner.

If no-one tips 4 in week 1, all people with 3 will proceed. If everyone bar one is knocked out prior to GF day, the one remaining is the winner.


I will start - Gee, WCE, Coll, Haw.


If no-one else tips, I will declare myself the winner. It will be my maiden R&S competition victory.

I note Jane Saville was DQ'd in the 20km walk. On a broad level, I really felt for her in Athens.

But really, when are people going to realise that walking should not be an event?

Apart from the bizarre concept of "let's see who can walk the fastest", I would think that more people complete the course (technically) illegally than in any other sport.

They need sensors on their feet, or Hawkeye, or something.

Does anyone know the origins of walking? How did anyone decide this was a credible international event?

Most forumites would have seen by now the reports on the Davydenko / Arguello match from Poland earlier in the week.

In summary, World number 5 Davydenko started the match 1/5 favourite. After winning the first set (of a three set match), he drifted to 4/1. He retired in the 3rd, handing Arguello the win.

Apparently $7m was bet on the match on Betfair (being 10 times the normal amount).

Now I did not see the game. Perhaps, he was clearly limping (he retired due to a toe injury). Perhaps there was something in his 6-2 first set win that signaled he was to struggle for the rest of the game. But a $1.20 to $5.00 drift is quite a drift.

The South China Morning Post has today run an article headlined “Federer gives Davydenko his support”, but this is drawn up around Roger saying things like “I hope it’s not a problem” and “Davydenko doesn’t seem like the guy to do something like that”.

I am a cynic at heart, but try as I might, I cannot see how this can be anything but pre-arranged tanking for money. Doesn’t he earn enough as it is?

I know its innocent until proven guilty, and yes, all my information is from newspapers, and yes, I didn’t watch the game. But from the comfort of my arm chair, its hard to build a case in support of Nickolay.

Does anyone see Davydenko as innocent?

At Wrestlemania 20, Eddie Guerrero and Chris Benoit both won their first WWE Championship belt.

Now they are both dead.

Yesterday, Chris Beniot killed his wife and seven year old son and then himself after pulling out of the Pay Per View on Sunday with "personal problems".

This is rather a dramatic turnaround in fortunes for two men who reached the pinnacle of their profession just 3 years ago.

Nearly everyone felt sorry for Eddie but the same legacy can't be granted to someone who takes the option that Chris did.

Its a very long straight and Mr Woods is looming large.

Will Appleby be able to withstand the venue, the crowd and the man partnered with him over the final 18.

Gee, I hope so.

Without dwelling too much on the "if that had happened" factor, Appleby could have done with his triple bogey on the 17th.