22. That is the number of pounds Timeform and the Racing & Sports handicapper has marked Amokura improving to win the Group 1 Queensland Oaks (2200m) off a Sunshine Coast Class 1 two weeks ago.

Rated 83 there with a good time figure and obvious staying potential, the jump is still significant, and she did it with similar margins. A 1.6 x 1.6 x 0.6 x 0.9 length winner back to fifth on Saturday, she was a 2 x 1.5 x 1 x 0.4 in the Class 1, with the fifth placegetter just a head closer in the Group 1 and second just a long neck.

It goes to show in plenty of staying three-year-old races in Australia that the difference between Group & Listed form is not very different to provincial form. Time and time again we see Oaks & Derby contenders end up benchmark middle distance horses post their classic season, so why shouldn't a benchmark horse be able to measure up in a weak Oaks.

And a weak Oaks it was. The following table shows the past 10 Queensland Oaks winners (noting the race wasn't run in 2020), the rating they ran the start prior, and their eventual peak career rating.
 

Year	Horse	Start Prior	Oaks Rating	Peak Rating
2022	Gypsy Goddess	100	109	114
2021	Duais	110	110	120
2019	Winning Ways	96	105	107
2018	Youngstar	105	107	118
2017	Egg Tart	108	108	118
2016	Provocative	88	112	112
2015	Winx	109	115	134
2014	Tinto	103	108	115
2013	Gondokoro	99	108	108
2012	Quintessential	101	108	112

As we can see, the Queensland Oaks has actually been a pretty good platform for bigger and better things with Winx the flag bearer but Duais also doing her part. It again highlights the benefit of racing a three-year-old over a trip and honing their craft rather than spelling for the all-important Spring.

All but Provocative in 2016 and Gondokoro managed to improve on their rating at some point in their career, and Winx aside, the others have fared fairly well.

After the Group 1 Australasian Oaks (2000m), I wrote that 48% of the winners of that race since 2000 never won again, and they averaged around 1 win between them.

Winx is an obvious outlier in this data set (and most data sets), so with her aside, the mean wins for the group is still just 1.375, with Duais (3) and Tinto (4) doing the heavy lifting. Gypsy Goddess only had one more run and was third to I Wish I Win in the Golden Eagle before being retired which didn't help, but still.

In the ten years, only Winning Ways in 2019 has rated as low as Amokura to win the Queensland Oaks. She raced another five times for one win in Queensland open level racing, which I think is realistic for Amokura.

The one that profiles the most similarly to her is Provocative in 2016, who won an Ipswich open handicap as her Oaks lead up, running to 88 before improving 24 pounds to run 112+ in her 3-length win. She was rated 95 in New Zealand prior to that Ipswich win however but unfortunately only had one more run and did a tendon, never to race again.

Amokura is a low Oaks winner, there's no doubt about that. It looked a thin race on paper, especially with Fireburn coming out, but she's clearly a good stayer and I think she can win more races, if placed correctly like Tinto was, who won another five and nearly $1.5 million in career prize money. 

The likes of Winx, Duais and even Youngstar were targeted at the Group 1 Spring races, but Amokura isn't them. With good placement in the fringe staying races, why can't she bump up that winning average?