Sadly tomorrow sees the end of the season. Result could go either way so have taken -

Norm Smith - Luke Hodge @ $7
Most Goals - Mark Lecras @ $8
- and Luke Breust @ $9


I see you can bet on the boot colour of the first goalscorer (not kidding). Pass.

Thankfully Priddis picked up one vote in the last round to win the handicap bet. Well done Nat Fyfe, deserved winner.

Brownlow hcp odds -


Nat Fyfe (+0) [FRE]
10.00

Matt Priddis (+4.5) [WCE]
9.00

Patrick Dangerfield (+5.0) [ADE]
9.00

Dan Hannebery (+5.0) [SYD]
9.00

Sam Mitchell (+5.5) [HAW]
6.00

Todd Goldstein (+7.5) [NTH]
9.00

Andrew Gaff (+8.5) [WCE]
9.00

Josh Kennedy (+6.5) [SYD]
9.00

David Mundy (+9.0) [FRE]
9.00

Dustin Martin (+9.5) [RIC]
9.00

Robbie Gray (+11.5) [PTA]
10.00

Scott Pendlebury (+10.5) [COL]
10.00

Trent Cotchin (+12.5) [RIC]
8.00

Only players on the list included in hcp bet

I actually have Priddis with a +4.5 handicap @ $9 (same price as Mundy hcp), so he doesn'y actually have to win. If he polls well early, he will score a lot of votes in the last 8 rounds.

Cheers Tigerish, a good weekend with 4/4. Hoping Priddis can upset Fyfe tonight. Have also taken David Mundy with a +9 handicap.

Good start to the weekend for you Ramses, hope it ends the same way for you.

Well done.

Swans/Roos managed to go comfortably under the total, and the Roos win made it a good day. Unfortunately got the Hawks game very wrong. Crows didn't turn up. I expect Ross Lyon will be keen for Freo to foil Hawthorn's possession game, and I can't see Freo scoring high. I think the Eagles will win, but not sure about a big margin. Roos play tough football and this could end up being a bruising slog. I've taken...

Freo/Hawks total under 170.5
Freo total under 80.5
Roos/Eagles total under 179.5
Roos +30.5

Think Priddis is a decent chance to pip Fyfe in the Brownlow

3/3 last week. Shaping as another two good games this weekend. Hawthorn return from a tough match last week. I think their confidence is low while Adelaide's is sky high. No Gunstan and Roughhead is underperforming. Riding high on emotion and confidence I can see the Crows just pinching this. The Roos were outstanding with their tackling pressure last week and expect to see the same again. Swans are without Franklin again and I don't think they'll be wanting a high scoring game. They are the masters at keeping opposition to a low score, and also very good at tackling pressure, very keen on the under here. Dare I mention that showers are forecast.

Adelaide @ $3.90
Adelaide +25.5
Roos +11.5
Roos/Swans under 161.5 (2 units)

So apparently the BOM use the same method I use to pick horses on non-cup races on Cup day - i.e. the dartboard. No rain, but still comfortably went under. Today I've taken the Skippies +8.5.

Thanks Tiggerrish, the rain didn't come (95% chance BOM said!) and that kick after the siren from a relatively easy spot had me worried. Thought it was a going through until it hit the post. Supposedly? 100% chance of rain in Perth with possible hail and windy, so I've taken the under again. Hope it's not as close this time.

Freo/Swans under 142.5

Withe the rain and wind, have taken under 160.5

After being up by three goals at quarter time, the Lions eventually fell just 2 pts short of covering the 70.5. The Roos once again had me scratching my head. The Bombers managed to cover the spread in wet conditions, and Sydney destroyed the Saints.

A few teams playing basically reserve grade sides this weekend. Richmond should towel up North's B team tonight, and under the dome it could be a big score. I think the Lions will have something to prove and might give stalwart Staker a happy ending over the Dogs (or at least cover the hcp) - Boyd, Murphy and Morris out helps. Despite Freo resting most of their team, I think those playing will be hungry enough to prove themselves, enough at least to cover the 60.5 start. Carlton are a mess and wouldn't surprise me if Hawthorn covered the 191.5 total by themselves. Saints are in for a bad day in WA. Eagles will want to prove a point, and most certainly don't want to lose that crucial home final. Saints will have one eye on Mad Monday.

Took these...

Tigers -47.5
Tig/Roos over 186.5
Lions win @ $4.50
Lions +30.5
Freo +60.5
Hawks -71.5
Hawk/Carl over 191.5
Eagles -53.5
Eagles by 100+ @ $8

Will be a rather mundane weekend viewing-wise with very little at stake. Can't wait for next week though.

Way off with GWS last week. Credit to the young Saints who played 4 qtrs of good football, unlike the Cats who managed 4 qtrs of skill errors (and repeated the performance last night). The other four bets got up comfortably. With the likelihood of rain (max 12c) in Launceston, and with Hodge, Puopolo and (likely) Mitchell out, I'm banking on a comfortable (but not too big) win for the Hawks. The Roos are surging while the Dogs seem to be feeling the effects of a long season. Always tough coming back from WA (especially after a big loss). The Bombers seem to be happier minus Hird and think they can stick with Richmond for a long way. Expecting the Saints to have a come down game after last weeks draw. Swans are determined to show they can't be written off.

Lions +70.5
Roos -6.5 **
Bombers +38.5
Swans -29.5 **

**Best Bets.
WD Gattonera on nabbing Port last week.

There is a lot of sense in what you say
Particularly the Cats line -27.5
People take note - this is exceedingly generous
Fill your boots! Great spotting

The Eagles are vulnerable this week, things will catch up. The dogs have the right gameplan to poke the WCE bruises. Winning over there is tough but they are highly likely to at least... get within the 23pts. That's the worry methinks

As for me - all of my investments started with Port to win @ $10 ($10! for real??!!) so I'm watching and waiting from now - but - I will follow you in on the Cats > 27 (or more at higher odds also)

All the best

Cheers Gattonera. Yeah there were a few expletives aimed at the tv half time in the Roos game, but thankfully a huge second half. Might be pushing my luck to hope for three perfect weeks in a row, but I'll give it a crack. On a sunny day at the MCG I think the Pies/Tiges will post a big total, certainly enough to cover the 163.5. With three big outs I think Sydney might struggle against a GWS side hungry for it's first finals appearance. I don't think much of Tippett (for his salary per goals) and without Franklin, Rohan, Parker and Mitchell they will struggle to score. Richards can struggle at times in one on ones which might give Cameron a good day out. Ordinarily I would have taken the Suns to cover the hcp but the Bombers might start playing for the new coach so too risky. Saints with seven changes (in particular Armitage) so I'm sticking again with the tiring young Saints theory and the line again looks skinny. The Lions have a lot going on off the field, while the Crows only have September on their mind, should be a big margin. The dogs are resting Boyd and might be content with their spot in the eight, while WC get Lecras and Natanui back and want that first home final. Over in the west I think they will eventually skip away from the Dogs (who will stick with them for a while). Could be a big total also if Kennedy, Darling and Lecras fire.

Pies/Tigers over 163.5 @ 1.90*
GWS +12.5 @ 1.92
Cats -27.5 @ 1.92*
Crows -45.5 @ 1.92*
Eagles -23.5 @ 1.92
WC/Dogs over 179.5 @ 1.90

*Best bets
Took these as singles last night as well as 2 multis with the lot (one with the Eagles hcp and one with the over) just in case. Managed to jag 9/9 in the 10k comp last week, but was 7 off the margin the last game - oh well.

Phew. That would have been unnecessary stress
North 3 goals down halfway through the third
then putting on 13 goals to 3 since then
Glad it worked out for you

And as for the Crows beating your 25 pt line
All I can say is.... send a thank you note to the umps! sheesh!.....

North certainly are flat track bullies.... and most of my best weekends for this season have involved either backing North to fail against their peers, or to destroy the meek.

So I know where you're coming from.
BUT! I am worried about this Saints game
This game to me, reeks of North ugly winning - Saints giving it a crack and not having enough to finish it.

So... North by some kind of margin is a risk
I hope I'm wrong... but I'm worried enough to leave that North game out of all calculations this weekend.
Good luck.

I think both the Saints and Bombers have had enough for the year, and Tigers should bounce back hard against the travelling Suns. Took these bets yesterday.

Roos -30.5
Crows by 25+ pts
Tigers -32.5

Looking forward to watching the Western Derby

Thanks Tigerrish and Smallsy, it's nice when games go according to plan. Should be an exciting fight for finals spots over the next month.

Nice pick up, Ramses...well done.

Credit to the Tigers last week, their tackling and pressure was relentless all game. Can't say the same for last night. Today I see the Dogs/Port game (under the roof) being a fast paced, open game. Expecting it to be a shootout. The Lions are struggling to get a fit team on the field, and while they will put in a big effort for the local clash, I can't see them kicking a lot of goals, and 9.5pts seems skinny. Looking for Hawks to bounce back, and WC return from the longest trip in footy last week (should be a great game). Saints youngsters look to be tiring late in the season. Freo are just doing what they have to to win games, but again the hcp looks skinny.

Dogs/Port over 180.5
Suns -9.5
Hawks -9.5
Dockers -12.5

Been away for a few weeks but determined to grind out the season. Tigers have been playing well lately and I think they'll stay with the hawks for a while, but with some big ins (as if they need more!) I think the Hawks will kick away towards the end. They desperately want that home final and are running out of games to catch either Freo or West Coast.

Took Hawks -33.5 yesterday

Well after the shocking event of last week I think I'm ready to have a bet again. Both these bets look too good to pass up.

Saints @ $2.30
Freo +17.5 @ $1.91

With Franklin and Tippet out, and Port's struggles to kick decent totals this year (also apparently going to be a windy night), I've taken game total under 166.5 tonight.

You rode in on your super hero scooter, happy to point out an error I made. Now you're not interested because you had your own faults pointed out to you.

Typically you.

Stick to stalking khaptingly, and if you're going to come back to be a smart a$$, at least learn how to spell and count.

"Didn't Hawks miss by a point"

"agressive"


If you're going to play forum police on whats right and wrong, try getting your own dung pile in order, Knucklehead.

Very good WCF, god knows where the forum would be without your outstanding detective work.

All you need to do now is provide a tip/bet/guess even.....anywhere.

Looked a hard round to bet on, so i stayed out. Love the Freo bet!

One straight kick away from a perfect weekend, Ramses....going well, keep up the good work

Scary looking bye round betting-wise. Only just got the bickies Thursday night. A cool but dry day at the MCG should see a big score, but the game total worries me, so have gone with the Hawks to kick a bag. Dogs had an easy time of it last week, while the Saints come off a bye. Saints have won 9 of the past 11 against the Dogs, but these are two completely different teams now. I think the Dogs will be out to prove that point and will be looking for a strong start to the game, and should then be good enough to hold the Saints at bay.

Hawthorn to score 115.5+ @ $1.90
Dogs -12.5 @ $1.94

Not much time tonight, but had a bet. I assume the Pies players spent most of the week trying to remember where they store their footy travel luggage, and on a rare trip out of Vic. I think Freo (despite my hesitations last week) will account for them at home. Going..

Freo 1-39 @ $2.10

Not a ton of confidence in some matches this week so just taking a small multi bet and backing each in single bets. Pretty keen on the Roos against an injury riddled Giants. Dal Santo back is a big plus.

Tigers 1-39 @ $2.30
Roos -16.5 @ $1.91
Lions +23.5 @ $1.95
Cats by 40+ @ $2.10

Cheers Smallsy, good luck.

Well the Swans/Eagles almost got me out of the hole last week. I give up on trying to predict what Freo are going to do. They may be getting a little ahead of themselves. Won't know what I'm doing until I see the teams for the weekend, but have taken this bet for tonight to hopefully double up some coin. I can't see the Hawks losing but at Adelaide Oval I think the Crows will put up enough of a fight.

Hawks 1-39 @ $2.10

Well it was a good game to watch, but a poor result for me. If not for Wingard, Carlile and Robbie Gray it could have been a 10 goal drubbing. Guess I'll have to reload on the remaining games for another 2 multis. My apologies in advance to the coaches of those clubs.

Cheers Smallsy. I've taken two multis for the first bye round. Sydney are doing their usual approach to the season - just getting warmed up at the midway point. I think their deep midfield and potent forward line will be too much for the Roos, be surprised if they can't win by more than 2 goals, despite North's gutsy win last week. Bombers are really feeling the strain from the re-emergence of the drug saga and I can see West Coast kicking a big score. Not sure about the -37.5 though. I expect the Cats to play better than last week, but Port finally seem to getting their act together, and at home I'm happy to take -10.5.

Port -10.5 @ $1.91
Eagles by 25+ @ $1.50
Swans -13.5 @ $1.95

Div = $5.60

2nd multi adding these to the above-
Pies -7.5
Freo by 40+

Div = $18.15

Good luck all.

Lions +45.5 into
Hawks -57.5

Only 6 for me. To misquote Flying High - "Looks like I picked the wrong week to jump on the Giants".

4 from 9 here :/

Smallsy,

Only one thing worse than your sports punting at the moment......and thats mine....lol ;)

Effin oath Tiger!
Watched them last week and they were awesome!
Melb looking good as I type ... good luck!

I like the Dees to make it close with Port. The Power have a dislike of teams who play very defensive against them and they get shakey as Richmond and Brisbane showed the last few weeks when you play them man on man. I'm looking for a low scoring game this week.

Melbourne at the line (+15.5)

Into Adelaide at home against the Dockers at the line. Freo are flying atm, but even though the Crows are hit and miss, I think this week they give them a fair shake.

Adelaide at the line (+22.5)

All up into Canberra Raiders in the NRL at home to the Broncos. Five Brisbane players backing up from Origin and played in Canberra at 5.30pm this arvo. Currently 12c in Canberra at 1.30pm means come game time it'll be down to single figures temp wise.

Canberra H2H = 1.77

Good to see you've jumped on the Giants smallsy ;)

I like,

WB with the start 10.5,
STK with the start 10.5 and the
Kangas to beat Collingwood 1-39.

Cheers,
Good luck

Been a tough few weeks. I think the Dogs are starting to look tired and have some big outs this week, while GWS are just getting stronger each week. With the Roos returning from the west after being easily accounted for by Freo I see the Pies taking this one.

GWS -11.5
Pies @ $2

I've taken the above multi plus a speculator adding these -

Melb +15.5
Bombers +5.5
Freo -21.5
Lions

Div - $42.50

Good luck all

Smallsy,

Ordinarily I wouldn't take GWS, but they're in great shape having beaten the Hawks and pushed Sydney.

The Crow's have on played two top 8 class teams. They beat the Roos in round one and got thumped by the Bulldogs.

Adelaide are relying heavily on Fast Eddie and he's not had a lot of help from the other forwards lately. And I reckon they're vulnerable against a younger, faster side.

Mind you, last week I thought Melbourne were travelling well enough to cover the line too....lol

Hoping this weekend will be better than my efforts last week...

Saints at the line (+33.5) into GWS (over 15.5)and if its still alive, into the Cowboys at the line (+6.5) in the NRL Saturday night.

Though it's in Melbourne, without Riewoldt and despite the return of Montagna, I think the Eagles midfield and forwards will be far too strong for the young Saints. When I look at the onfield team sheet, the gap in experience and talent across the board is glaring. Selwood back doesn't hurt the Eagles chances.

I expect the Dogs to win but by how much is anyone's guess. Demons get Hogan (young/hot & cold) and Watts (???) back, but Dogs welcome back Macrae, Grant and Hrovat, all coming off solid performances in the VFL (Macrae 34 touches/Grant 4 goals/Hrovat 4 goals).

Can't go past Port this week, with Cornes' 300th-farewell game/at home/needing a win/bounce back from last week's loss. Carlile and Wines back. They won't be keen for three losses in a row. I think they'll be extending the Tigers' woes here.

With that in mind, my multi is -

Eagles -31.5 @ $1.90
Dogs to win $1.45
Port -22.5 @ $1.90

Multi $1 div - $5.20

Good luck all

Well done on the Over Smallsy. I hear you tigerish, Melbourne were woeful. Carlton were disgraceful. And the Suns were insipid. For a team with so much talent, the skills and decision making were far below acceptable. I thought Freo might do enough to cover the line after being up by 22pts at 3/4 time, but credit to the Dogs for fighting it out. The Lions certainly had their confidence back, their defence was outstanding and their midfielders out-muscled and outplayed Ports'. Hawks v Swans the highlight game this week.

Melbourne didnt look ok, they looked damn awful.

Nice one Smallsy, the Hawks did all the work for you and made my comments about a low scoring game look average.

Storm doing the right thing atm.

Looks like being a cooler day in Melbourne today, so I think Melbourne at the line look ok after their positive effort last week. Sorry smallsy, I don't see it being a high scoring game ;)

And into the Storm in the NRL at the line too. Sth Sydney have a woeful record in Melbourne and no Adam Reynolds to help them score points and organise them either. Without him they really struggle.

Melbourne (AFL) +44.5
Melbourne Storm -6.5

Fair points WCF. I think Freo are flying atm and with the other contenders faltering in recent weeks I believe they will want to assert their dominance. They'll also want to prove a point about winning in Melbourne. Young sides tend to have a bit of a lull after a few big games, and Freo have the Dogs covered all over the park.

Suns get the three 'drinkers' back this week and they are big inclusions. They'll be pushing hard to redeem themselves, and word is all of the Suns players are on notice regarding their future at the club. I think they'll be competitive for a long way and 39.5pts might just be enough. Of course if Kennedy goes to town I could be in trouble (though his elbow injury must be somewhat restrictive).

I'm least confident in the Lions game, but they will have regained a lot of confidence from last week's win, when they looked more like the team that performed well in the NAB Cup. Lions have a good midfield, Beams and Rockliff are consistently good, if Rich can play at his best, and the small forwards can get amongst the goals (feeding off the crumbs of Leuenberger) then hopefully they can stay within five goals. I'm also hoping Port have one eye on Cornes' 300th/retirement game next week. I could be wrong with any or all of those games, but that's my reasoning.

Cheers,
Ramses

I have a feeling this could be a nightmare round. Anyway, I've taken this multi -

Suns +39.5
Freo -23.5
Lions +32.5

Good luck all

Yeah 4 for me too, got the Saints right, but went the Tiges. Overall a weekend to forget.

What an awful week tipping wise. I ended up with 5 (which was a good result in our comp).

I had a 4 leg multi going into Port in the last leg for over a $300 payout, and of course I missed it.

It looked so easy going into the round, I was contemplating using my joker (double points). I am so glad I didn't use it.

I thought the toughest game to predict was Pies V Cats, I just couldn't understand how the price was so tilted toward the Pies, but I thought the other games all picked themselves.

This round looks easy as well, with the toughest to predict being Bombers V Roos on Friday night and Tigers V Pies. The others look to pick themselves, but as we have seen, anything can happen in 2015.

I do know that as thing stand right now, Freo have already set themselves up nicely for two home finals and an almost certain shot at the Grand Final.

Nah Smallsy, already had my multi on.... bloody Hawks :) Yeah MD, wasn't expecting to see that half time margin Friday. Killed my tipping too.

To misquote Meatloaf - "Two out of three aint good". Hawks up by 27 in 2nd qtr stings a bit. Bad luck with the Pies MD & Smallsy. On to next week.

P.S. - I think Carlton should cover the 26.5 against a depleted Lions. I can't see where the Lions will get goals from.

Gladys, I assume your next post will be constructive/on topic. This thread won't be derailed by taunts/garbage.

Cheers guys, good luck

Thanks guys. I expect some line changes after teams are announced tonight, but most of the crucial outs are already a given.

Gold Coast will be hard pressed just to field a team and I expect Adelaide to bounce back strong this week. Hawks lose two big playmakers in Lewis and Hodge, but they have plenty of depth and I think they should cover the hcp against GWS (teams tend to be a bit flat after a trip to W.A., not ideal considering their opponents). Much like the Crows, I expect Sydney to come out firing this week, and with McGlynn, Heeney, Reid and Brandon Jack all pushing for selection, and the sting of losing to the Dogs, I think the Bloods could be out for...well blood.

Adelaide -38.5
Hawthorn -28.5
Sydney -30.5

Feel free to add thoughts.

Good luck,
Ramses

Nice work!

Ive been getting on the Dogs-opponents overs score. Only just made it this weekend by 4 points.
Had some easy wins on the $2faves lines last couple of weeks. Only $20 for each win but it all counts.
Ill look out for future AFL threads.
Cheers

Can only go downhill from here...

Multi div - $6.96 ($1.91 each)