gattonera
Footy has had oozleloads of dispiriting events, heartbreaking sagas and jaded corporate circle’works’ lately. Watching the repulsive Wayne Carey and the oily Hamish McIntosh ratacheting up smug self satisfied gurning whilst breaking down a game won by the team that ‘managed their rotations off a six day break’ better. No No No Nup
Sehnsucht
I went to the AFL Women’s opener tonight. Originally planned for the Western Oval tomorrow – (mainly to solve the problem always presented in Pies Blues games…) but expecting a noteworthy crowd and the historic nature of it changed my plans to tonight.
Jeez it was good
There was skill errors, dropped marks, slewed kicks. Yes there was.
Jeez it was good
Being in a heaving electrified Princes Park, watching a tough absorbing contest was such a delight. Watching players that had overcome the perennial barriers of underresourcing, fractured pathways, freely offered discouragements and dinosaur attitudes to put on a contest that captured all of the great elements of our game – was a delight
Bumping into friends, watching the crowd, seeing the genuine enthusiasm people brought tonight. Well…. It was a much needed tonic.
The Blues were good! Cleaner and smarter. A deserved victory. Loved watching Brianna Davey, what a talent
A long long overdue event – but what an entry onto the stage. Well done all.
And on the subject of long overdue, another wrong to right…… someone needs to show Gill a map of Tasmania!
Sehnsucht
I went to the AFL Women’s opener tonight. Originally planned for the Western Oval tomorrow – (mainly to solve the problem always presented in Pies Blues games…) but expecting a noteworthy crowd and the historic nature of it changed my plans to tonight.
Jeez it was good
There was skill errors, dropped marks, slewed kicks. Yes there was.
Jeez it was good
Being in a heaving electrified Princes Park, watching a tough absorbing contest was such a delight. Watching players that had overcome the perennial barriers of underresourcing, fractured pathways, freely offered discouragements and dinosaur attitudes to put on a contest that captured all of the great elements of our game – was a delight
Bumping into friends, watching the crowd, seeing the genuine enthusiasm people brought tonight. Well…. It was a much needed tonic.
The Blues were good! Cleaner and smarter. A deserved victory. Loved watching Brianna Davey, what a talent
A long long overdue event – but what an entry onto the stage. Well done all.
And on the subject of long overdue, another wrong to right…… someone needs to show Gill a map of Tasmania!
6 Comments
Glance at the ladder
Even after winning 5 of last 6
The top team is...
Odds of $5.40! - at start of August
No major injury worries.
!
!
Even after winning 5 of last 6
The top team is...
Odds of $5.40! - at start of August
No major injury worries.
!
!
The ever-escalating spiral of exasperating madness continues....
Jeff Geischen quote
"But quite clearly one of the things is that Hodge has elected to go to ground. By Hodge electing to go to ground, he has a responsibility not to make any contact below the knees of his opponent, and that is what's happened"
or to paraphrase - the players going in to get the ball have a duty of care to current spectators and future spectators around the ball
More common sense starved kneejerk sudden rule changes by the powers that be. Vive la revolution!
Jeff Geischen quote
"But quite clearly one of the things is that Hodge has elected to go to ground. By Hodge electing to go to ground, he has a responsibility not to make any contact below the knees of his opponent, and that is what's happened"
or to paraphrase - the players going in to get the ball have a duty of care to current spectators and future spectators around the ball
More common sense starved kneejerk sudden rule changes by the powers that be. Vive la revolution!
My view is that Ross Lyon is a fraud
And it looks like he knows it
Never has anyone done so little to gain the title of ‘best/most sought after coach in the league’
But Freo have bought it, and now they’ve paid for it
And they will probably get a flag with Ross Lyon as coach
Probably despite him, rather than because of him
Then he’ll be a dead-set fraud
The modern coaching caper has three critical components. Tactical strategy (short term strategy (match day coaching etc.)), man management and list management (long term strategy).
1. Tactical strategy. Ross Lyon was at Sydney during the GF years. Sydney had developed a new variation of play based around stoppage control, congestion and set plays. This was a brilliant innovation by Roos and his team. The Swans have the smallest ground in the league and a list that was called ‘blue collar’ – very hard working and honest, but without the flair of other teams .
When Lyon went to the Saints he inherited a list that was the envy of the league. The golden team of emerging stars that was always pencilled for greatness, just stymied by the ineptitude of St.Kilda management. Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Koschitzke, Ball, Hayes, Goddard, Maguire, Montagna, R+X Clarke, Fisher.
Lyon went about instilling the Swans strategy and turned a super-talented list playing on (one of the) fastest and highest scoring grounds in the AFL, into a counter-intuitive snooze-fest.
Now there’s nothing inherently wrong with being a one-trick pony. Dennis Pagan got 2 flags in this way (before being found out pretending Fev was Carey and blocking his ears). But Pagan’s one trick was at least his. Lyon is a no-trick pony
On matchday he has been solid, not as good as some (N. Craig) not as bad as some (B. Ratten)
2. Man management. Word on the street is very good. This is clearly his long (track) suit, and probably the X factor in him getting his talented Saints to the busy end of September. This view should be tempered by the repeated inability to get an understanding on fitness issues and repetitive soft tissues injuries
3. List management. Criminal. Most likely deliberately criminal
The best three kids that Lyon drafted during his time at St. Kilda were Ben McEvoy, Jack Steven and Jamie Cripps, maybe Robert Eddy. McEvoy the best – I kid you not
Sydney had some success with recycled players, so why wouldn’t Lyon keep that going
He drafted – Charlie Gardiner, Sean Dempster, Steven King, Adam Schneider, Farren Ray, Colm Begley (!), Jesse Smith (not the ok one at Sydney, the crippled one at North), Adam Pattinson, Zac Dawson, Andrew Lovett, Brett Peake, Ryan Gamble, Dean Polo
And St.Kilda wanted to sign him for another four years (even after knowing that he’d recruited Dean Polo). Unbelievable!!
Lyon sold off the farm for a shot at the prize, and, to be fair, got within a kick – twice.
But a lifetime of tissues are stained with the tears of ‘could’ve and should’ve’ – and he leaves (citing family duty) with his mangy tail between his legs, St.Kilda at the start of a Russian winter … and he gets the keys to the best young list in the AFL. Maybe the best young list since the Saints of the early noughties
Freo will probably get a flag with Ross Lyon as coach
Probably despite him, rather than because of him
And it looks like he knows it
Never has anyone done so little to gain the title of ‘best/most sought after coach in the league’
But Freo have bought it, and now they’ve paid for it
And they will probably get a flag with Ross Lyon as coach
Probably despite him, rather than because of him
Then he’ll be a dead-set fraud
The modern coaching caper has three critical components. Tactical strategy (short term strategy (match day coaching etc.)), man management and list management (long term strategy).
1. Tactical strategy. Ross Lyon was at Sydney during the GF years. Sydney had developed a new variation of play based around stoppage control, congestion and set plays. This was a brilliant innovation by Roos and his team. The Swans have the smallest ground in the league and a list that was called ‘blue collar’ – very hard working and honest, but without the flair of other teams .
When Lyon went to the Saints he inherited a list that was the envy of the league. The golden team of emerging stars that was always pencilled for greatness, just stymied by the ineptitude of St.Kilda management. Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Koschitzke, Ball, Hayes, Goddard, Maguire, Montagna, R+X Clarke, Fisher.
Lyon went about instilling the Swans strategy and turned a super-talented list playing on (one of the) fastest and highest scoring grounds in the AFL, into a counter-intuitive snooze-fest.
Now there’s nothing inherently wrong with being a one-trick pony. Dennis Pagan got 2 flags in this way (before being found out pretending Fev was Carey and blocking his ears). But Pagan’s one trick was at least his. Lyon is a no-trick pony
On matchday he has been solid, not as good as some (N. Craig) not as bad as some (B. Ratten)
2. Man management. Word on the street is very good. This is clearly his long (track) suit, and probably the X factor in him getting his talented Saints to the busy end of September. This view should be tempered by the repeated inability to get an understanding on fitness issues and repetitive soft tissues injuries
3. List management. Criminal. Most likely deliberately criminal
The best three kids that Lyon drafted during his time at St. Kilda were Ben McEvoy, Jack Steven and Jamie Cripps, maybe Robert Eddy. McEvoy the best – I kid you not
Sydney had some success with recycled players, so why wouldn’t Lyon keep that going
He drafted – Charlie Gardiner, Sean Dempster, Steven King, Adam Schneider, Farren Ray, Colm Begley (!), Jesse Smith (not the ok one at Sydney, the crippled one at North), Adam Pattinson, Zac Dawson, Andrew Lovett, Brett Peake, Ryan Gamble, Dean Polo
And St.Kilda wanted to sign him for another four years (even after knowing that he’d recruited Dean Polo). Unbelievable!!
Lyon sold off the farm for a shot at the prize, and, to be fair, got within a kick – twice.
But a lifetime of tissues are stained with the tears of ‘could’ve and should’ve’ – and he leaves (citing family duty) with his mangy tail between his legs, St.Kilda at the start of a Russian winter … and he gets the keys to the best young list in the AFL. Maybe the best young list since the Saints of the early noughties
Freo will probably get a flag with Ross Lyon as coach
Probably despite him, rather than because of him
Smallsy, MD, Lostclarity, Jezza and others
The shrinking Big Paper has posted an tantalising 53 photo gallery in the lead up to the big game on Sunday
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/afl/blues-v-bombers-the-rivalry-20110908-1jz9i.html
Some startling images, some stark memories, thankfully not a Michael Symons in sight.
Good luck everyone, I'm holding on to a bizarre dream that we can knock the blues and pies out of the finals in consecutive weeks
The shrinking Big Paper has posted an tantalising 53 photo gallery in the lead up to the big game on Sunday
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/afl/blues-v-bombers-the-rivalry-20110908-1jz9i.html
Some startling images, some stark memories, thankfully not a Michael Symons in sight.
Good luck everyone, I'm holding on to a bizarre dream that we can knock the blues and pies out of the finals in consecutive weeks
March 18, 2010 – London: Clint Dempsey (Fulham F.C.)
“….Dempsey won the tie with an 82nd-minute goal that, for its immaculate execution and utter audacity, recalled Eric Cantona’s chip for Manchester United against Sunderland in 1996. Without giving the remotest clue as to his intent, the forward swivelled outside the area and “sand-wedged” the ball into the far top corner over Chimenti, who watched it arc over his head as if hypnotised by its beauty” (extract from The Times)
THE BACKGROUND
Fulham have battled for survival in the EPL since the rapid rise from (the old) Division 4. The 2006-7 season saw us narrowly avoid relegation and 2007-8 had us even deeper in trouble. Roy Hodgson was appointed to work a minor miracle and he finished the season with a major miracle to his credit. With four games to go, there was one survival spot remaining and three teams struggling for it, with Fulham being at least 4 points behind the other contenders, having not got an away win in the past 34 attempts. After a rare away win, another away trip to Man City loomed.
Half-time of the third last game saw Man City 2-0 up and cruising against Fulham and fellow relegatees Birmingham 2-0 against Liverpool. At this point, to avoid relegation at least six goals needed to occur… and they did!! Fulham got 3 late goals to beat Man City 3-2, Torres scored 2 late goals to keep the Brummies to a draw and Spurs scrapped a 1-0 win against Reading. Two games later and Danny Murphy puts away a 76th minute header to get a last game 1-0 win and the much coveted 17th spot on the EPL table. The next season Fulham unbelievably qualifies for Europe!!
THE CAMPAIGN and THE MOMENT
In the lead-up to the legendary Europa League Round of 16 final against Juventus, Fulham already had to overcome trips to Lithuania, Russia, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Italy and the Ukraine. The first leg of the final was a 3-1 loss away in Turin. Not a great result, but at least there’s an away goal.
That small glimmer of hope was snuffed in the opening minutes of the second leg when Juventus went 1-0 up (for a 4-1 aggregate lead). In one of the more remarkable comebacks in the recent history of football, Fulham found 3 goals and at the 81st minute, the tie was on a knife-edge with an aggregate score of 4-4
Then…. THE Moment (extract from The Guardian)
“It will be the winning goal that becomes a touchstone for Fulham in years to come, whenever they have to convince themselves that extraordinary feats are feasible...... Juventus were conquered by a goal of almost unfeasible delicacy from the substitute Clint Dempsey. After 82 minutes he cut in from an angle on the right and floated the ball high into the far corner of the net. At the age of 39 the visitors' goalkeeper, Antonio Chimenti, must have been relishing this occasion. Now he must carry its memory into his retirement.”
THE WASH-UP
A win against German Premiers Wolfsburg in the quarters and a nail-biting come from behind win against Hamburg in the Semi saw Fulham into the final against Atletico Madrid. They went in front, we got an equalizer. The game went into extra time before Diego (aaarggh) Forlan scored an 116th minute winner for the Spanish side and left Fulham a bee-stick away from a truly remarkable victory. Never has failure been so glorious.
Hodgson wins Manager of the Year by a landslide and then gets himself stolen by Liverpool who become embroiled in their own early season relegation battle (going to prove that one man’s prosciutto is another man’s prosecco). Fulham after losing to bottom side West Ham on the weekend are deeply mired back in the relegation zone with a bleak future to sit alongside the glories of the year. Spurs look to be writing next year’s tale of wonder, but I’ll leave that to Eastside Steve and Patsy to swoon over :)
Happy New Year to all on the forum. Hope that next year on the punt is a rewarding one - and I hope that big quaddies keep landing for those that deserve them.
“….Dempsey won the tie with an 82nd-minute goal that, for its immaculate execution and utter audacity, recalled Eric Cantona’s chip for Manchester United against Sunderland in 1996. Without giving the remotest clue as to his intent, the forward swivelled outside the area and “sand-wedged” the ball into the far top corner over Chimenti, who watched it arc over his head as if hypnotised by its beauty” (extract from The Times)
THE BACKGROUND
Fulham have battled for survival in the EPL since the rapid rise from (the old) Division 4. The 2006-7 season saw us narrowly avoid relegation and 2007-8 had us even deeper in trouble. Roy Hodgson was appointed to work a minor miracle and he finished the season with a major miracle to his credit. With four games to go, there was one survival spot remaining and three teams struggling for it, with Fulham being at least 4 points behind the other contenders, having not got an away win in the past 34 attempts. After a rare away win, another away trip to Man City loomed.
Half-time of the third last game saw Man City 2-0 up and cruising against Fulham and fellow relegatees Birmingham 2-0 against Liverpool. At this point, to avoid relegation at least six goals needed to occur… and they did!! Fulham got 3 late goals to beat Man City 3-2, Torres scored 2 late goals to keep the Brummies to a draw and Spurs scrapped a 1-0 win against Reading. Two games later and Danny Murphy puts away a 76th minute header to get a last game 1-0 win and the much coveted 17th spot on the EPL table. The next season Fulham unbelievably qualifies for Europe!!
THE CAMPAIGN and THE MOMENT
In the lead-up to the legendary Europa League Round of 16 final against Juventus, Fulham already had to overcome trips to Lithuania, Russia, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Italy and the Ukraine. The first leg of the final was a 3-1 loss away in Turin. Not a great result, but at least there’s an away goal.
That small glimmer of hope was snuffed in the opening minutes of the second leg when Juventus went 1-0 up (for a 4-1 aggregate lead). In one of the more remarkable comebacks in the recent history of football, Fulham found 3 goals and at the 81st minute, the tie was on a knife-edge with an aggregate score of 4-4
Then…. THE Moment (extract from The Guardian)
“It will be the winning goal that becomes a touchstone for Fulham in years to come, whenever they have to convince themselves that extraordinary feats are feasible...... Juventus were conquered by a goal of almost unfeasible delicacy from the substitute Clint Dempsey. After 82 minutes he cut in from an angle on the right and floated the ball high into the far corner of the net. At the age of 39 the visitors' goalkeeper, Antonio Chimenti, must have been relishing this occasion. Now he must carry its memory into his retirement.”
THE WASH-UP
A win against German Premiers Wolfsburg in the quarters and a nail-biting come from behind win against Hamburg in the Semi saw Fulham into the final against Atletico Madrid. They went in front, we got an equalizer. The game went into extra time before Diego (aaarggh) Forlan scored an 116th minute winner for the Spanish side and left Fulham a bee-stick away from a truly remarkable victory. Never has failure been so glorious.
Hodgson wins Manager of the Year by a landslide and then gets himself stolen by Liverpool who become embroiled in their own early season relegation battle (going to prove that one man’s prosciutto is another man’s prosecco). Fulham after losing to bottom side West Ham on the weekend are deeply mired back in the relegation zone with a bleak future to sit alongside the glories of the year. Spurs look to be writing next year’s tale of wonder, but I’ll leave that to Eastside Steve and Patsy to swoon over :)
Happy New Year to all on the forum. Hope that next year on the punt is a rewarding one - and I hope that big quaddies keep landing for those that deserve them.
In what would be otherwise considered to be quite an unremarkable match, the first half of the Round 2 clash between St. Kilda and North Melbourne highlighted the next shift in modern football. And it just may be a betting advantage
The natural world is testament to the fact that nothing inspires imitation more than success does. The AFL is no exception (i.e. no fewer than 13 future coaches emerged from 83/84 Essendon and Hawthorn sides that dominated those seasons, despite the questionable abilities of at least half of them)
The headline event in recent seasons has been the battle between the ‘instinctive’ and the ‘controlled’ – the ‘natural’ vs the ‘unnatural’. The repeated success of the blue-collar Swans showed the football world that talent could be overcome with structure, that adherence to well thought through game plan could enable you to hold your own against anybody. Ross Lyon defected from the Swans and got to set this up with a list more talented.
And when it looked as if control and structure would stifle football - the free-flowing, ‘play on at all costs’, ‘go to the corridor’, ‘back your judgement’, ‘run hard’, ‘stream through midfield’, ‘attack the ball’ Cats struck a blow for the innate over the learned.
Most of the significant battles over recent years have been fought along these lines – however there is third success story which has gained resonance.
When Clarkson took over at Hawthorn, he cut into the list early – cast adrift were N. Thompson, Hay, Lekkas, Greene, Lonie, Beaumont, Barker – and drafted in his first 2 years: Franklin, Lewis, Roughead, Birchall, Ellis, Guerra, Young. From 2004 on they went from 15th to 14th to 11th to 5th to Premiers
Especially with the ominous arrival of the Gold Coast Budgies and the West Sydney Squinters (thanks Gerard Whateley – great term) – the rush to do a ‘Clarkson’ has overcome at least a few clubs
So now we have the ‘Naturals’ of varying abilities (Geelong, Footscray, Fremantle, Essendon), the ‘Disciplined’ (St. Kilda, Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide etc.) and the third category of ‘Kids’ (Melbourne, Richmond, North, Essendon again, maybe West Coast).
Natural v. Disciplined we have form on (inc. 4 of the past 5 GFs), Natural vs. Kids tends to be reasonably predictable. It’s the ‘Disciplined’ vs. ‘Kids’ which is an eyebrow-raiser
Watching those raw talented kids of North trying to unpick the Saints ‘full court press’ in that Round 2 game was heartwrenching, they went to water, they lost whatever nerve they had, they were battling a monster they couldn’t comprehend. It was, at one stage, 61 to 0. They shaped up differently after the half-time break and gained a touch more respect
Same in the Richmond Swans game last week. it was 60 to 6 at one stage before the Tiges held their own (or profited from the Swans shifting down a gear)
SO! – The betting advantage?
Football pools (i.e. quarter quads/ footy doubles) usually assume that games progress linearly (as in – a team that should win by 10 goals will be 2 goals up at qtr time, 5 goals up a half time etc.) – and variations from that can provide surprising dividends. Quarter Quads that have the 6-8 goal bracket (or even the 8-10 goal bracket) at quarter time pay a fortune – nobody expects it – nobody backs it.
The new reality is that when kids play machines – they can be shredded very quickly before the coaches come in and institute ‘damage limitation football’. Worth considering when you are considering wagers on margins early in the game
The natural world is testament to the fact that nothing inspires imitation more than success does. The AFL is no exception (i.e. no fewer than 13 future coaches emerged from 83/84 Essendon and Hawthorn sides that dominated those seasons, despite the questionable abilities of at least half of them)
The headline event in recent seasons has been the battle between the ‘instinctive’ and the ‘controlled’ – the ‘natural’ vs the ‘unnatural’. The repeated success of the blue-collar Swans showed the football world that talent could be overcome with structure, that adherence to well thought through game plan could enable you to hold your own against anybody. Ross Lyon defected from the Swans and got to set this up with a list more talented.
And when it looked as if control and structure would stifle football - the free-flowing, ‘play on at all costs’, ‘go to the corridor’, ‘back your judgement’, ‘run hard’, ‘stream through midfield’, ‘attack the ball’ Cats struck a blow for the innate over the learned.
Most of the significant battles over recent years have been fought along these lines – however there is third success story which has gained resonance.
When Clarkson took over at Hawthorn, he cut into the list early – cast adrift were N. Thompson, Hay, Lekkas, Greene, Lonie, Beaumont, Barker – and drafted in his first 2 years: Franklin, Lewis, Roughead, Birchall, Ellis, Guerra, Young. From 2004 on they went from 15th to 14th to 11th to 5th to Premiers
Especially with the ominous arrival of the Gold Coast Budgies and the West Sydney Squinters (thanks Gerard Whateley – great term) – the rush to do a ‘Clarkson’ has overcome at least a few clubs
So now we have the ‘Naturals’ of varying abilities (Geelong, Footscray, Fremantle, Essendon), the ‘Disciplined’ (St. Kilda, Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide etc.) and the third category of ‘Kids’ (Melbourne, Richmond, North, Essendon again, maybe West Coast).
Natural v. Disciplined we have form on (inc. 4 of the past 5 GFs), Natural vs. Kids tends to be reasonably predictable. It’s the ‘Disciplined’ vs. ‘Kids’ which is an eyebrow-raiser
Watching those raw talented kids of North trying to unpick the Saints ‘full court press’ in that Round 2 game was heartwrenching, they went to water, they lost whatever nerve they had, they were battling a monster they couldn’t comprehend. It was, at one stage, 61 to 0. They shaped up differently after the half-time break and gained a touch more respect
Same in the Richmond Swans game last week. it was 60 to 6 at one stage before the Tiges held their own (or profited from the Swans shifting down a gear)
SO! – The betting advantage?
Football pools (i.e. quarter quads/ footy doubles) usually assume that games progress linearly (as in – a team that should win by 10 goals will be 2 goals up at qtr time, 5 goals up a half time etc.) – and variations from that can provide surprising dividends. Quarter Quads that have the 6-8 goal bracket (or even the 8-10 goal bracket) at quarter time pay a fortune – nobody expects it – nobody backs it.
The new reality is that when kids play machines – they can be shredded very quickly before the coaches come in and institute ‘damage limitation football’. Worth considering when you are considering wagers on margins early in the game
I guess it was to be expected, asking for tips on Xmas Day/Boxing Morning, the results were flatter than the glass of beer left out for Santa. 8 collects from 33 investments
Second Again made a truism of his name with Love Conquers All at $3.5, also found by the all conquering Sterlo86.
Here De Angels carried the weight of the sensibly spelled Hamilton, Dancing At Ascot and Clackers.
Joku in Brisbane for Jet and sohosquare and Pins On Ice for saintly1996 rounds out the winners.
Despite a valiant effort, Todman didn’t snag his longshot winner, but there’s always next week and I’ll probably be the only person hoping he doesn’t get it.
Next up is tipping on New Years Day... let’s see how that goes....
Leaderboard.
$262 Squid69 2/19 11%
$261 sterlo86 5/13 38%
$109 Metgreen 8/18 44%
$109 nigeltufnel 6/19 32%
$97 DevilRed 2/5 40%
$58 Northerly#1 2/14 14%
$52 jet 6/17 35%
$51 lance barnard 6/18 33%
$46 clackers 2/2 100%
$33 The Mighty Quinn 1/3 33%
$28 SmileyBandit 1/2 50%
$24 cowboy111 1/1 100%
$22 Pinkline Jones 1/3 33%
$21 MattC85 1/1 100%
$19 Dancing At Ascot 1/1 100%
$16 Dollar 2/6 33%
$15 PerfectEight 1/4 25%
$11 Smallsy 1/2 50%
$10 SpinningKnight 5/18 28%
$8 bickies 4/14 28%
$8 Snooker 1/2 50%
$6 stylish century 1/3 33%
$5 Fat Back Pocket 1/2 50%
$4 Boondog 3/8 38%
$3 VaDim 1/2 50%
$1 Poindexter 2/6 33%
-$2 dutchdog 1/3 33%
-$5 Isildur 1/2 50%
-$6 ForeverYours 2/5 40%
-$6 thegreatgadsby 3/9 33%
-$9 Seashells 5/18 28%
-$9 nob 5/15 33%
-$10 Da G Show 0/1 0%
-$10 squidman 0/1 0%
-$10 the urger 0/1 0%
-$10 Bettowin 0/1 0%
-$10 salvatore 0/1 0%
-$10 snozzy 0/1 0%
-$10 jbp82 0/1 0%
-$10 Afghanatom 0/1 0%
-$10 Dagz 0/1 0%
-$10 stevez 0/1 0%
-$10 mrjones 0/1 0%
-$10 Picol 0/1 0%
-$10 Glencoe 0/1 0%
-$10 MD 0/1 0%
-$10 cummo3 0/1 0%
-$10 Count Chivas 0/1 0%
-$10 Greyshot 0/1 0%
-$10 Cerebus 0/1 0%
-$10 Robbie13 0/1 0%
-$10 piggsy 0/1 0%
-$10 Kaos44 0/1 0%
-$10 Bodsy 0/1 0%
-$10 Don Corleone 0/1 0%
-$10 MrGrieves 0/1 0%
-$10 Parraboy 0/1 0%
-$10 FBR 0/1 0%
-$18 runbabyrun 1/6 16%
-$20 The Commissioner 0/2 0%
-$20 Mantank 0/2 0%
-$20 hollystarr 0/2 0%
-$20 miksik 0/2 0%
-$20 1965TIGER 0/2 0%
-$20 Torpedo Punt 0/2 0%
-$20 ender5 0/2 0%
-$20 clubby 0/2 0%
-$20 della 0/2 0%
-$22 Churds 2/8 25%
-$23 lostclarity 1/14 7%
-$30 reamer 0/3 0%
-$30 beitzel 0/3 0%
-$30 Hands ‘n Heels 0/3 0%
-$30 Hitensile 0/3 0%
-$30 Cove007 0/3 0%
-$32 andynguyen747 1/6 16%
-$33 Saintly1996 5/18 28%
-$35 Alcimedes 1/5 20%
-$36 yakeckhid 5/17 29% **
-$37 Magpie Magic 3/17 18%
-$41 thruyakik 2/11 18%
-$50 another_tipsta 0/5 0%
-$50 Deadant66 4/16 25%
-$51 SecondAgain 3/14 21%
-$63 bondy 3/18 16%
-$63 theknuck 1/10 10%
-$65 guzzlr 1/9 11%
-$66 neptunesdragon 2/12 17%
-$67 trevalma 3/18 16%
-$69 hinksy 2/18 11%
-$74 tigerrish 4/17 24%
-$74 maccamax 2/12 16%
-$90 hareeba 0/9 0%
-$91 Hamilton 3/18 16%
-$92 RedCar Boy 1/12 8%
-$100 Tenhour 0/10 0%
-$109 sohosquare 2/19 10%
-$110 loges2 0/11 0%
-$117 Gattonera 1/14 7%
-$180 Todman 0/18 0%
** Unresolved $12 query
Second Again made a truism of his name with Love Conquers All at $3.5, also found by the all conquering Sterlo86.
Here De Angels carried the weight of the sensibly spelled Hamilton, Dancing At Ascot and Clackers.
Joku in Brisbane for Jet and sohosquare and Pins On Ice for saintly1996 rounds out the winners.
Despite a valiant effort, Todman didn’t snag his longshot winner, but there’s always next week and I’ll probably be the only person hoping he doesn’t get it.
Next up is tipping on New Years Day... let’s see how that goes....
Leaderboard.
$262 Squid69 2/19 11%
$261 sterlo86 5/13 38%
$109 Metgreen 8/18 44%
$109 nigeltufnel 6/19 32%
$97 DevilRed 2/5 40%
$58 Northerly#1 2/14 14%
$52 jet 6/17 35%
$51 lance barnard 6/18 33%
$46 clackers 2/2 100%
$33 The Mighty Quinn 1/3 33%
$28 SmileyBandit 1/2 50%
$24 cowboy111 1/1 100%
$22 Pinkline Jones 1/3 33%
$21 MattC85 1/1 100%
$19 Dancing At Ascot 1/1 100%
$16 Dollar 2/6 33%
$15 PerfectEight 1/4 25%
$11 Smallsy 1/2 50%
$10 SpinningKnight 5/18 28%
$8 bickies 4/14 28%
$8 Snooker 1/2 50%
$6 stylish century 1/3 33%
$5 Fat Back Pocket 1/2 50%
$4 Boondog 3/8 38%
$3 VaDim 1/2 50%
$1 Poindexter 2/6 33%
-$2 dutchdog 1/3 33%
-$5 Isildur 1/2 50%
-$6 ForeverYours 2/5 40%
-$6 thegreatgadsby 3/9 33%
-$9 Seashells 5/18 28%
-$9 nob 5/15 33%
-$10 Da G Show 0/1 0%
-$10 squidman 0/1 0%
-$10 the urger 0/1 0%
-$10 Bettowin 0/1 0%
-$10 salvatore 0/1 0%
-$10 snozzy 0/1 0%
-$10 jbp82 0/1 0%
-$10 Afghanatom 0/1 0%
-$10 Dagz 0/1 0%
-$10 stevez 0/1 0%
-$10 mrjones 0/1 0%
-$10 Picol 0/1 0%
-$10 Glencoe 0/1 0%
-$10 MD 0/1 0%
-$10 cummo3 0/1 0%
-$10 Count Chivas 0/1 0%
-$10 Greyshot 0/1 0%
-$10 Cerebus 0/1 0%
-$10 Robbie13 0/1 0%
-$10 piggsy 0/1 0%
-$10 Kaos44 0/1 0%
-$10 Bodsy 0/1 0%
-$10 Don Corleone 0/1 0%
-$10 MrGrieves 0/1 0%
-$10 Parraboy 0/1 0%
-$10 FBR 0/1 0%
-$18 runbabyrun 1/6 16%
-$20 The Commissioner 0/2 0%
-$20 Mantank 0/2 0%
-$20 hollystarr 0/2 0%
-$20 miksik 0/2 0%
-$20 1965TIGER 0/2 0%
-$20 Torpedo Punt 0/2 0%
-$20 ender5 0/2 0%
-$20 clubby 0/2 0%
-$20 della 0/2 0%
-$22 Churds 2/8 25%
-$23 lostclarity 1/14 7%
-$30 reamer 0/3 0%
-$30 beitzel 0/3 0%
-$30 Hands ‘n Heels 0/3 0%
-$30 Hitensile 0/3 0%
-$30 Cove007 0/3 0%
-$32 andynguyen747 1/6 16%
-$33 Saintly1996 5/18 28%
-$35 Alcimedes 1/5 20%
-$36 yakeckhid 5/17 29% **
-$37 Magpie Magic 3/17 18%
-$41 thruyakik 2/11 18%
-$50 another_tipsta 0/5 0%
-$50 Deadant66 4/16 25%
-$51 SecondAgain 3/14 21%
-$63 bondy 3/18 16%
-$63 theknuck 1/10 10%
-$65 guzzlr 1/9 11%
-$66 neptunesdragon 2/12 17%
-$67 trevalma 3/18 16%
-$69 hinksy 2/18 11%
-$74 tigerrish 4/17 24%
-$74 maccamax 2/12 16%
-$90 hareeba 0/9 0%
-$91 Hamilton 3/18 16%
-$92 RedCar Boy 1/12 8%
-$100 Tenhour 0/10 0%
-$109 sohosquare 2/19 10%
-$110 loges2 0/11 0%
-$117 Gattonera 1/14 7%
-$180 Todman 0/18 0%
** Unresolved $12 query
This from The Age online
"Jumps racing hits the wall
November 27, 2009 - 11:15AM
Jumps racing in Victoria will end after the 2010 racing season, Racing Victoria Limited says.
More soon . . ."
"Jumps racing hits the wall
November 27, 2009 - 11:15AM
Jumps racing in Victoria will end after the 2010 racing season, Racing Victoria Limited says.
More soon . . ."
Adelaide’s start to games over the past 6 weeks
Carl 7 goals to Adel 6 – Adel win by 72pts
WC 2 goals to Adel 2 - Adel win by 74pts
Haw 5 goals to Adel 1 – Adel win by 27pts
Coll 2 goals to Adel 2 – Coll win
Geel 3 goals to Adel 3 – Geel by 2 pts
Port 4 goals to Adel 2 – Adel by 70pts
Adelaide are deserved short favourites for this game, but considering the above, getting the Qtr by qtr
Ess/Adel/Adel/Adel @ 8/1 – is value
(Ess/Ess/Adel/Adel is also around 16s)
Considered from a probability perspective 9one example):
Ess in front at qtr time – 45% likely
Adel in front at half time – 65% likely
Adel in front at ¾ time- 85% likely
Adel win – 90% likely
= 22.3% (or a 7/2 chance)
Even tweaking for different percentages, there seems to be value there
Other issues to consider for the match
- Bellchambers is a late omission which leaves Essendon without a proper ruckman. One mitigating factor is that Jobe Watson has continually been the league leader in ‘sharking opposition hitouts’
- The close game that these two teams played earlier in the year is less of a template than it initially appears. The Crows were experimenting with structures during that match. Open play-on corridor footy for the first half, Collingwood style ‘matching and flank’ play for the third quarter before reverting to Hawthorn/Saints style midfield zones for the last quarter. This last quarter set-up was spectacularly effective and highlights a massive weakness in the Essendon approach. The last quarter against the Saints where a 41pt lead almost evaporated highlighted this also.
I would expect the Crows to adopt this style of play earlier in the game which would make the Bombers task too difficult. Additional sidenotes from that match were a> Walker’s presence upfront was quite important to that game (he took Hooker apart and left Pears undermanned against Tippet) – Walker is out tonight, Hentschel in that role instead:: b> The Crows kicked unnaturally straight (from memory they were 18.0 at one point – some difficult shots in that too)
- Lloyd out is obviously less of a problem than Ryder out, Dempsey back is a big plus though
Unless the Crows have a St.Kildaesque meltdown, it is hard to see the Dons winning – but the approx even money chance of a qtr time lead makes the 8/1 worth a nibble
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Re: GROUPIES RESULTS Autumn 2022 Final
