Epsom Handicap

Sydeston
I have had a look at Saturday's Epsom field and put together a few thoughts. Suggestions welcome.

Boban: For - Group One winner, Waller factor, Jockey OK, Barrier trial winner Friday 26th. Against: Hasn't won for a while; recent form ordinary, 58 kgs.

Royal Descent: For - Group One winner; Waller factor, H Bowman, form consistent. Against - Hasn't won since the Oaks 18 months ago, 55.5 kgs for a mare.

Toydini: For - Trainer, Jockey. Against - Form ordinary, weight, 1 win from 11 at track, hasn't won for a while.

Laser Hawk: For - Trainer, jockey, good last start and big weight drop. Against - a 6 year old with only 12 starts - is he right to win a tough Randwick mile?

Star Rolling: For - only 53 kgs, can run a mile. Against - Flogged at his last two starts - overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

He's Your Man: For - Waller factor, Moreira, no weight, distance no worries, form excellent.
Against - back from 2000 metres.

Honorius: For - Trainer OK, distance no worry.
Against - Jockey promising but inexperienced, form poor, one win from 10 at track, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

Hooked: For - Last start winner, minimum weight. Against - Overall record poor, inexperienced jockey, one third from 6 starts at Randwick.

Ninth Legion: For - Trainer, jockey, minimum weight, form reasonable. Against - suspect at 1600 metres, no placings from 4 starts at track, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

Lucky Chappy: For - Waller factor, jockey OK, minimum weight, form fair. Against - won only to 1500 metres, back from 2000 metres, won only 2 races, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

Jetset Lad: For - No distance worries, minimum weight. Against - recent form ordinary, won 7 from 52, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

Liberty's Choice: For - Waterhouse factor, jockey excellent, minimum weight, form fair.
Against - only one win from 17 and that was at
1250 metres, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

Pheidon: For - Waterhouse factor, minimum weight, no distance worries. Against - form average, jockey inexperienced, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

Woodbine: For - Waterhouse factor, jockey good, minimum weight, recent form good. Against - only won to 1350 metres, up from a BM84 win last start to a Group 1, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

Spy Decoder: For - Trainer, minimum weight. Against - form and overall record ordinary, only won to 1400 metres, overall record suggests he may not be good enough.

I discount barriers in Randwick miles as they seem to win from anywhere.

My chances - 1,2,4,6.
Rough chances to 5,8,9,10,13,14.

Summary

1. Royal Descent
2. Laser Hawk
3. He's Your Man.
4. Boban

Now try analysing the Turnbull.....what a race!
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Excellent summary Syd. Just what the forum needs.

I particularly like the way you regard the rider in you considerations.

I have been burned by Royal Descent too often to go again, and I'll probably regret it. It's hard not to fall in for Boban on the strength of his mile record. He has gate 1 and Schofield will need a little luck but he could save a lot of ground and if he gets a split at the right time...

But I am interested in two horses who are being ridden by their jockeys for the first time : He's Your Man (Moreira) and Star Rolling (Meech).

The decision to bring He's Your Man back to a mile is an intriguing one as is the booking of Moreira. I'm going to keep him safe.

Star Rolling drops a lot weight in this and while he has been well beaten in his last two races he hasn't been beaten by that much in what I consider a much better class. And those races were both kind of peculiar. Linda should ride the speed from gate 2.

But it probably comes back to a question of price and Boban looks backable at the $7.50.

Purely on the proviso Waller has put Boban in the field I am taking that as a sign he wanted to keep weights as is and to back one of his others.

Boban is in worse form this year and last year took 1kg from Toydini and this year gives him 2.5kg. He will be doing well to run a slot.

Like a few other posters he’s your man. A last start winner over 2000m and with a feather on his back, I am expecting him to get used up a little go forward and turn it into a solid clip as soon as possible. With a light weight hopefully will still have enough in the tank to make them chase. The Randwick rise will help, those wanting to chase before the hump and through the bend will need a tank full.

Laser Hawk. Not a horse (or jock for that matter - CBrown) I like but Joe Pride finally has his team doing the job and on his 3yo form LH looks capable of winning in open Group company. RD has the best jockey and should be somewhere in the placings.

Not on my radar at this stage but Hooked went for $600K at the dispersal so someone either thinks he's an improver or a stud prospect.

Re HOOKED, Ultra Tune man bought him and is keeping him with Thompson. Should be racing in the Miss Andretti colours tomorrow.

Good summary mate.

I see the race as being light on quality re milers, light on horses in form with only 3 last start winners, light on Randwick specialists and heavy on multiple stable runners.

I think that the Hawkes runners will both run well on the good track. Toydini's autumn was spoiled by wet tracks. The change in stables saw him race well firstup and flat 2nd up. With blinkers back on - LOOK OUT.

Ninth Legion is backing up from last week. He has backed up within 9 days, 3 times in his career, with a win at his last attempt last November. I don't know if this was the plan but I do believe he is ready to peak. His racing pattern is a big plus, but the distance at the Randwick mile may test.

Saying that the top 2 are the class in the race is trite but absolutely true. The Boban of last year wins. Royal Descent is a non winner but her 4 seconds in GR1 & 2 races at her last 5 starts plus a close 5th in a Caulfield Cup, shows she is a quality mare. Perhaps a little bit better on rain affected tracks but her stats on good are OK. Laser Hawk meets her far better on weights, but his barrier and the likes of Jetset Lad, Gai's 2 ruffies and Hooked, will make this race a tougher ask than the George Main, plus he is only taking his place in the field, because his stablemate, Rock Sturdy was unable to accept.

He's Your Man has to be considered on this preps form and that brings both Kingdoms and Lucky Chappy in with shows. Liberty's Choice on the Rock Sturdy formline His 3rd up start last prep was good but a doubt re a strong 1600m Randwick mile.

Pheidon on a good track and off a good barrier may be the best outsider going around all day. Has won over 2000 metres and should posse up with a forward trail.

I have left Woodbine until last, as he is the horse my heart is tipping more than my head. He has had light preps and his good track stats, plus the claim that he is crying out for a mile, his royal blood are all factors for me. His barrier will only be a problem if they go back off of a slow pace, but I cannot believe that a Waterhouse horse will be ridden negatively with the long run to the first turn. All that being said, he has to step up by taking a few lengths improvement from his win last week.

My selections are in order

Toydini
Pheidon
Lucky Chappy
Ninth Legion

It will pay a squillion in the exotics. I will be saving on Woodbine though.

No Boban - no Royal Descent - no He's Your Man - and probably no sense.





jet

I don't mind 2000m back to 1600m form in strong mile races.
he will do me.

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