hands n heels
As reported on this site, all the slots for this 'unusual' affair have now been sold, a mere 2 months after its announcement. I must say I find it astounding that various parties have $1.8m to throw in, on spec, for the right to participate in a race for 3 consecutive years. I can only assume the rights are attached to the syndicate or individual and not specific horse - the latter would be insanity imho.
My value judgement is based largely on the ratio of cost vs payoff - in the major G1s in this great land, the ratio of 1st prizemoney to total prizemoney is in the range of 57%-62%, this includes the GS, MC, CC, CP. I don't yet know the breakdown for The Everest but let's assume the middle ground and say 60% or $6m for 1st place. Syndicates are therefore paying, best case, 10% of 1st place prizemoney for a slot, regardless of whether they win 1, 2 or 3 times. 10% for an 8.25% chance at 1st place in purely mathematical terms.
Compare that to the 2 biggest races by prizemoney on the current calendar, using the current nomination fees to final acceptance. A fully paid up acceptor for the Melbourne Cup costs 1.33% of 1st place prizemoney, for the Golden Slipper its 1.57%. I realise there are other factors at play here, field size, stud prospects etc. but I cannot see the value. Am I missing something?
My value judgement is based largely on the ratio of cost vs payoff - in the major G1s in this great land, the ratio of 1st prizemoney to total prizemoney is in the range of 57%-62%, this includes the GS, MC, CC, CP. I don't yet know the breakdown for The Everest but let's assume the middle ground and say 60% or $6m for 1st place. Syndicates are therefore paying, best case, 10% of 1st place prizemoney for a slot, regardless of whether they win 1, 2 or 3 times. 10% for an 8.25% chance at 1st place in purely mathematical terms.
Compare that to the 2 biggest races by prizemoney on the current calendar, using the current nomination fees to final acceptance. A fully paid up acceptor for the Melbourne Cup costs 1.33% of 1st place prizemoney, for the Golden Slipper its 1.57%. I realise there are other factors at play here, field size, stud prospects etc. but I cannot see the value. Am I missing something?
1 Comment
Best Win: SR9 ELEMENOHPEE ($4.80)
Best EW: BR8 FORGOTTEN YEARS ($11)
Best EW: BR8 FORGOTTEN YEARS ($11)
In a year with no real standouts this one is a bit of a low flyer from the McEvoy yard -SILVERA. Only started racing in August so this would be some feat at start no 5 but not the first to do so.
A winner at listed level at start 2 coming from last in a slowly run race on a Slow 7 then in to the Hill Smith last start. Runner-up that time but the improvement was obvious over the extra distance. Again it was a dawdling affair, they ran 3 sec below standard. As if to emphasise it the handy MORVADA led from early on until the last 100m and stuck on for 3rd by 2L. The winner (PRETTY PUNK - 3YOF) and SILVERA both came from near last, recording the fastest final 3 sectionals of the day, SILVERA the fastest last 200 of the day, including an earlier 1050 sprint. He looks like he’ll just get better over further and revel in the wide open space of Flemington.
Breeding is solid for a Derby and the owners know a thing or two about winning Derbies having bred and raced Shoot Out & Preferment.
Check out the vid, I like the way he attacked the line and through it, be sure to keep watching after the line….
http://www.theracessa.com.au/show_video.php?track=30072&date=2016-10-08&race=7&trial=no
SILVERA races in the Vase on Saturday and has accepted for the Derby ($26). Not sure how he would go at the Valley but a strong finishing effort would be enough for me.
In the meantime we might get another reference in the today’s Derby Trial where PRETTY PUNK goes round. They intend to late nom her for the Oaks if she performs.
A winner at listed level at start 2 coming from last in a slowly run race on a Slow 7 then in to the Hill Smith last start. Runner-up that time but the improvement was obvious over the extra distance. Again it was a dawdling affair, they ran 3 sec below standard. As if to emphasise it the handy MORVADA led from early on until the last 100m and stuck on for 3rd by 2L. The winner (PRETTY PUNK - 3YOF) and SILVERA both came from near last, recording the fastest final 3 sectionals of the day, SILVERA the fastest last 200 of the day, including an earlier 1050 sprint. He looks like he’ll just get better over further and revel in the wide open space of Flemington.
Breeding is solid for a Derby and the owners know a thing or two about winning Derbies having bred and raced Shoot Out & Preferment.
Check out the vid, I like the way he attacked the line and through it, be sure to keep watching after the line….
http://www.theracessa.com.au/show_video.php?track=30072&date=2016-10-08&race=7&trial=no
SILVERA races in the Vase on Saturday and has accepted for the Derby ($26). Not sure how he would go at the Valley but a strong finishing effort would be enough for me.
In the meantime we might get another reference in the today’s Derby Trial where PRETTY PUNK goes round. They intend to late nom her for the Oaks if she performs.
Gary's whip rule thread prompted to widen the topic of results and changes to them.
Talking through my pocket obviously but I can't help but be a little miffed at the ruling concerning horses being disqualified when a hoop weighs in light - the recent case in point being Jye McNeil on TIGIDIG TIGIDIG Sandown R5 on Wed just gone. He was 0.6kg under whereas stewards can uphold a result when the shortfall is less than 0.5kg.
The disqualification is not in question, you have to have a limit, but penalising punters in a situation where they never had any chance of winning by virtue of the fact that the pilot was light from the off seems unreasonable. I accept in racing that there are many many variables and the risks associated with backing any given runner are, in theory, compensated for in the price. However, quite simply, if a horse could never have won because of the retrospective application of the rules, there is no calculable price so surely this is a strong case for declaration as a non runner and refund of all associated bets. There are of course numerous counter arguments, the way that horse has affected the way the race was run, deductions now necessary on the promoted place-getters etc.- all reasonable in their own right but nevertheless I'd like to hear the forum's views on the betting aspect of this ruling.
As an aside I also backed BLONDE MISSILE Gawler R7 on the same day. It was duly protested against for drifting out severely in the last 100m. I must admit I began to feel like someone/thing was out to get me ;)
Talking through my pocket obviously but I can't help but be a little miffed at the ruling concerning horses being disqualified when a hoop weighs in light - the recent case in point being Jye McNeil on TIGIDIG TIGIDIG Sandown R5 on Wed just gone. He was 0.6kg under whereas stewards can uphold a result when the shortfall is less than 0.5kg.
The disqualification is not in question, you have to have a limit, but penalising punters in a situation where they never had any chance of winning by virtue of the fact that the pilot was light from the off seems unreasonable. I accept in racing that there are many many variables and the risks associated with backing any given runner are, in theory, compensated for in the price. However, quite simply, if a horse could never have won because of the retrospective application of the rules, there is no calculable price so surely this is a strong case for declaration as a non runner and refund of all associated bets. There are of course numerous counter arguments, the way that horse has affected the way the race was run, deductions now necessary on the promoted place-getters etc.- all reasonable in their own right but nevertheless I'd like to hear the forum's views on the betting aspect of this ruling.
As an aside I also backed BLONDE MISSILE Gawler R7 on the same day. It was duly protested against for drifting out severely in the last 100m. I must admit I began to feel like someone/thing was out to get me ;)
Tragic news regarding this promising 23 y.o. hoop overnight in Singapore.
I remember first following him around NSW Provincial tracks and latterly Sydney metro about 4 years ago thinking what a big future he had. He won the Brisbane premiership the season before last.
Not racing related apparently but no less a tragedy.
I remember first following him around NSW Provincial tracks and latterly Sydney metro about 4 years ago thinking what a big future he had. He won the Brisbane premiership the season before last.
Not racing related apparently but no less a tragedy.
As racehorses go, I like BASSETT, I really do.
I've liked BASSETT since I saw him in his 1st career start, a 2YO 1100 at Caulfield back in May. He looked like a pro from day 1 - he accelerated effortlessly and beat home a horse called Kinglike, who just 4 weeks ago won the Danehill 1st up, beating the current Guineas 2nd fav.
BASSETT went to Qld for the 2YO G1 mile and I thought Moody was a head-case - 2nd up 1100 to a G1 mile off 21 days, are you serious?? So I bet around him. I was right, but for the wrong reasons. BASSETT got smashed by COUNTERATTACK when going for a gap that Hughie promptly closed. It looked to be a winning run, the winner got the dream passage and is now the $2.20 CG favourite. Some doubt in my mind therefore that the best horse in the race won it, he might just have run 5th.
Roll forward to September, BASSETT returns to Caulfield/1100 and accounts for a field of new 3YOs with typical ease. The minor place-getters then went to the Valley last Fri and ran 1-2 in reverse order, but the winner did so just 2/100ths of a sec slower than Miss Andretti's course record, running home in 34.45. That's right, a 3YO went round the Valley faster than Black Caviar ever did and BASSETT is seemingly better than him. Granted the track was lightning fast last week but they still have to do it and they ran almost a sec slower in the only other 1200 that night (BM90).
BASSETT lines up in the big dance tomorrow, he’s $13 - 1100 to a G1 mile off 28 days, are you serious??
I've liked BASSETT since I saw him in his 1st career start, a 2YO 1100 at Caulfield back in May. He looked like a pro from day 1 - he accelerated effortlessly and beat home a horse called Kinglike, who just 4 weeks ago won the Danehill 1st up, beating the current Guineas 2nd fav.
BASSETT went to Qld for the 2YO G1 mile and I thought Moody was a head-case - 2nd up 1100 to a G1 mile off 21 days, are you serious?? So I bet around him. I was right, but for the wrong reasons. BASSETT got smashed by COUNTERATTACK when going for a gap that Hughie promptly closed. It looked to be a winning run, the winner got the dream passage and is now the $2.20 CG favourite. Some doubt in my mind therefore that the best horse in the race won it, he might just have run 5th.
Roll forward to September, BASSETT returns to Caulfield/1100 and accounts for a field of new 3YOs with typical ease. The minor place-getters then went to the Valley last Fri and ran 1-2 in reverse order, but the winner did so just 2/100ths of a sec slower than Miss Andretti's course record, running home in 34.45. That's right, a 3YO went round the Valley faster than Black Caviar ever did and BASSETT is seemingly better than him. Granted the track was lightning fast last week but they still have to do it and they ran almost a sec slower in the only other 1200 that night (BM90).
BASSETT lines up in the big dance tomorrow, he’s $13 - 1100 to a G1 mile off 28 days, are you serious??
Always keen to see something unprecedented happen in racing and if you're a racing fan you would have to be drooling over this prospect on Sunday.
Can TREVE win 3 Arcs? Will GOLDEN HORN spoil the party? Speaking of GH, he's had plenty of runs leading into this and it could be argued others have more scope for improvement, FREE EAGLE (stiff last time out) & FOUND (can she find a another 2L at he first try try over 12f).
Head-Maarek says Arc win will make Treve the greatest filly/are in turf history, I'll let you argue that one, I just want to see a ding-dong battle at Longchamp.
Awesome weekend of racing approaching, from Randwick to the Bois du Boulogne via Flemington.
Can TREVE win 3 Arcs? Will GOLDEN HORN spoil the party? Speaking of GH, he's had plenty of runs leading into this and it could be argued others have more scope for improvement, FREE EAGLE (stiff last time out) & FOUND (can she find a another 2L at he first try try over 12f).
Head-Maarek says Arc win will make Treve the greatest filly/are in turf history, I'll let you argue that one, I just want to see a ding-dong battle at Longchamp.
Awesome weekend of racing approaching, from Randwick to the Bois du Boulogne via Flemington.
For those who weren't aware, Australasia lost two of its stars of yesteryear in the last 3 weeks.
Triple Doomben Cup and 11 time G1 winner ROUGH HABIT passed away on Thursday last at 28 years joining VEANDERCROSS who died on Caulfield Cup day aged 26. Reminds me of a time when we had genuine WFA superstars and a plethora of them.
Triple Doomben Cup and 11 time G1 winner ROUGH HABIT passed away on Thursday last at 28 years joining VEANDERCROSS who died on Caulfield Cup day aged 26. Reminds me of a time when we had genuine WFA superstars and a plethora of them.
Usual rules with one addendum, if I don't like your tip, you'll be banned :P
Gluck!
Gluck!
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Re: GROUPIES RESULTS Autumn 2022 Final
