VRC Derby Speculator

Hands N Heels
2016 October 19 14:12:48 
In a year with no real standouts this one is a bit of a low flyer from the McEvoy yard -SILVERA. Only started racing in August so this would be some feat at start no 5 but not the first to do so.

A winner at listed level at start 2 coming from last in a slowly run race on a Slow 7 then in to the Hill Smith last start. Runner-up that time but the improvement was obvious over the extra distance. Again it was a dawdling affair, they ran 3 sec below standard. As if to emphasise it the handy MORVADA led from early on until the last 100m and stuck on for 3rd by 2L. The winner (PRETTY PUNK - 3YOF) and SILVERA both came from near last, recording the fastest final 3 sectionals of the day, SILVERA the fastest last 200 of the day, including an earlier 1050 sprint. He looks like he’ll just get better over further and revel in the wide open space of Flemington.

Breeding is solid for a Derby and the owners know a thing or two about winning Derbies having bred and raced Shoot Out & Preferment.

Check out the vid, I like the way he attacked the line and through it, be sure to keep watching after the line….
http://www.theracessa.com.au/show_video.php?track=30072&date=2016-10-08&race=7&trial=no

SILVERA races in the Vase on Saturday and has accepted for the Derby ($26). Not sure how he would go at the Valley but a strong finishing effort would be enough for me.

In the meantime we might get another reference in the today’s Derby Trial where PRETTY PUNK goes round. They intend to late nom her for the Oaks if she performs.
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10 Comments

Ramses

2016 October 28 19:36:28

Yeah Nige and Timesman, ran good closing sectionals for a horse not liking the wet track. Should be dry tomorrow. Hopefully Bowman can add to his collection. Wow, nice odds Todman. Makes the 25's I got earlier look paltry. Hands, I hope you grabbed another piece at similar prices. Wouldn't mind if Moreira worked some magic from the 17 gate (would kill my doubles though). SE would completely wipe me out for the race. Going to be a great day of racing/punting.

loges2

2016 October 27 09:39:20

Agree WCF and Mr P.
On breeding he should be double the odds,but I'm on now and not much I can do about it.
Just have to have faith in Nick Hall putting him to sleep and shaking him up at the right time,something Hall is good at!
Yeah,I think I'm grasping at straws.

cheers,loges.

Mr Prospector

2016 October 26 23:10:11

Loges I backed Beach Life last start, and he was excellent/unlucky, so I thought he would be my tip for the Derby. But then I saw he was a Hinchinbrook, and I hesitated.

I might lean towards Captain Duffy.. He went to the front and ran a really strong 2200m in the Geelong Classic. He needn't lead this time from barrier 2, I think he only did last time because he was caught wide.

Great race with lots of chances.

worker collective farmer

2016 October 26 23:41:03

Given his breeding I hope you're getting quite a few extra points on the price of Beach Life. Sometimes middle-distance horses steal the derby but look at his pedigree; Hinchinbrook, Snippets, Fastnet Rock, Encosta, Star Watch, Sovereign Slipper and he's related to Snitzel, Missile Stakes winner Captain Bax, Ascot Vale winner Theatre, Goodwood (the Adelaide one) winner Marstic, and his grandam ran second to Brawny Spirit in an Ascot Vale

Hands N Heels

2016 October 27 08:27:31

I'm not that disappointed in SILVERA'S Vase run.

Being a big strider I wasn't convinced the Valley was going to suit but there were other factors, significant other factors I thought. A simultaneous split video analysis of the Vase and the Cox Plate is telling.

Todman

2016 October 27 10:01:51

Hands, I somewhat agree re Silvera and I am sticking with him. Sometimes the best stayer does win the Derby. SE may be the class act but will he kick on strongly, although getting the run of the race is a big plus.

Todman

2016 October 27 14:38:15

Silvera is out to $61 on Sportsbet - I took $121 on power play plus $16 place

Hands N Heels

2016 October 27 12:47:49

Todman

Check your inbox...

Cheers

Timesman

2016 October 26 23:04:49

Ramses,

The jockey stated SSB was slipping in the going and wobbled around the last bend last Saturday.

So, on a dry track and assuming Hughie can give him a reasonable run, he should be in the mix.

Regards

Timesman

Laws clause: I was on pre-Vase.

loges2

2016 October 26 19:49:16

Now that Beach Life has gained a start ,I give him a good outside chance. He looked good coming from barrier 15 to win his maiden,tailing out last and rounding them up with a long sustained run.
Jumped to listed company with wide draws again to contend with,gets a nice barrier in the Derby which should give him a chance of some cover.
Has the same problem as a few of them,the distance?
Can a Hinchenbroke colt run the distance? Personally I doubt it but C Maher is pretty upbeat about it.
I'm on at $17,plus have taken it in a small double for a nice pay-out.

Cheers,Loges.

Ramses

2016 October 25 14:58:03

I backed So Si Bon and Silvera a few weeks ago (plus some doubles into Almoonqith, Bondi Beach, Grey Lion and Qewy - for the cup).

Wasn't impressed with Silvera's run but So Si Bon looked like a good Derby trial. Hoping the big track and long straight will suit better.

Will also have a few sheckles on Wine Bush at $26

nigeltufnel

2016 October 25 20:08:00

Interesting too Ramses to hear So Si Bon's trainer before the Vase stating he thought the horse was nowhere near his best on anything but a dry track, which gives the run a bit more merit.

Sydeston

2016 October 24 11:32:05

I've been following Sacred Elixir this spring. He should have won by further on Saturday - Lane seemed to have trouble extricating him entering the straight. Zac Purton takes over on Saturday.

His breeding on his sire's side is all staying - Montjeu and Sadlers Wells. Interesting to see on his dam side Horlicks is his great grandmother - a McKinnon Stakes and Japan Cup winner. I think $3.20 is a good price - agree So Si Bon a fair chance though.

Redback

2016 October 24 14:45:10

Strange decision to put Purton on in my opinion. Why break up a winning combination with a local jockey one week out?

nigeltufnel

2016 October 22 21:44:28

After today I reckon it's down to Sacred Elixir, So Si Bon & Swear.

I'd be interested in other thoughts: what do other forumites think?

Nige

Khaptingly

2016 October 24 06:40:20

I told you Silvera and Pretty Punk were pretty slow and ordinary.

Will Tufnel ever tell us some tips outside the top few in the betting and what most others also reckon. Will he ever bring something new to the forum.

Redback

2016 October 24 14:31:41

Yeah probably not superstars Khap. However, if you followed that form line through you got Smart As You Think @ $17 on Fri night and Morvada $15 the place (silly price beaten half a length by Silvera with a harder run and better suited at the Valley).

nigeltufnel

2016 October 24 08:28:58

Oh really?

They may be at the top of the market now, but they weren't weeks ago when I took them on doubles with Jameka.

What price for the Derby was So Si Bon before and after his run in the Caulfield Guineas?

What price is Swear now? What price was he before his Spring Champion run?

Sacred Elixir is at the top of the market because he's a very good horse. You'll note I tipped him in the Guineas, having backed him when he won first up. He was a great last leg in my multi with The United States and Winx on Saturday.

How did you go by the way? Still waiting on your answers to my questions.

Nige ;-)

Timesman

2016 October 23 23:20:32

Nige,

I reckon Swear is the value runner. The Caulfield race (over 2000m) and the Vase were not run in flash times. The Spring Champion providing a reasonable time is a good guide. To me Swear is the value at about $11. If Swear draws nicely he may do a Polaski ie jump, put him to sleep on the rail, bring him out at the top of the straight and pounce.

Not saying that SE or SSB can't win, simply looking at prices.

Gee I love spring racing.

Regards

Timesman

Redback

2016 October 23 05:06:50

Sacred Elixir should have won by further, clearly the one to beat.

Morvada was solid, a bit one paced but puts himself in he race, handles the wet and has always showed staying promise. Tough day to lead.

Silvera, the Valley didn't suit and in hindsight might have been better suited at Geelong. Will go better at Flemington but probably next prep for him. Did get stirred up in the gates.

Khaptingly

2016 October 20 03:26:43

Fairly slow ordinary horses if you ask me. The worst thing is they are only 3yo and they could hang around a while yet.

Redback

2016 October 20 20:27:48

Hence the term speculator ie. playing for a small amount at long odds due to the lack of obvious standouts.

nigeltufnel

2016 October 20 11:57:32

Yeah, right.

Factual evidence?

Oops, rhetorical question.

My apologies.


N.T.

Redback

2016 October 19 19:40:59

Been following this group of horses with interest, definitely look above average this year. Whether Silvera can go up in class and win a VRC Derby in his first prep is a big ask, but i'm also on for a small amount at $31. Screaming for a big track and more ground.

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