Adam,

Using raw times is only flawed if you have anything to do with Timeform. Its common knowledge they don't take much notice of them, so I'm not surprised a TF disciple such as yourself thinks using them are "moronic"

You know what is foolish.....

Someone who disregards a horse who consistently runs fast times on a surface and at a distance and says they believe its not that horses best distance or surface. Yet has no factual basis to back up a claim like this.

Recording the race time on the fly or not isnt relevant. What is relevant is that Wise Dan broke the mile course record at San Anita last year in the biggest mile race in the USA. And then this year he broke the mile course record in Canada's biggest mile event.

But these races are on turf......over a mile.

And Adam, I'm still waiting for you to tell me where I can read up on Sam Walkers criticism of the Lethal Force team for choosing the second tier option of the Breeders Cup meeting on turf.

I did chuckle at his terminology when describing the field who contested the July Cup as "Cosmopolitan".....lol. It would be a "cosmopolitan" field if Micheal Phelps lined up against the under 11 100m champion from 7 other countries, it doesn't mean it would be an epic contest, would it.

So let me get this straight Quezinator.

In your first post about what the trainer said regarding Lethal Force, you said he was "never" going overseas after his defeat in France.

And now you're saying you heard from the trainer that regarding the race in France.."if he didn't win then any plans for any trips overseas would seriously be in doubt"

I'm guessing tomorrow Cox will have phoned you directly after the France defeat and told you he was maybe, probably not but could be possibly going to the Breeders Cup meeting.

And you're right, at 3am I'm like the vast majority of sane, rational humans, I'll be sleeping. You'll of course be screaming yourself silly at a horse stumbling over a fallen log at Hicksville or slipping on the bitumen as it crosses the highway at Ludlow during peak hour. And all for the rider who's busting his rump for a Big Mac value meal upgrade and a bag of 3 month old popcorn.

Happy days at the Quezmiester Newtown bedsitter at 3am.

Tigerishhhhhhh..two posts and both say nothing, well done.

Cox said before France dumbo that if he didn't win then any plans for any trips overseas would seriously be in doubt. That was enough for me and copped the tip.

You see Tigerplod, watching all the lovely NH or euro flat races at night allows one to watch and listen to all the GBI or At The races interviews that come in "off air" with trainers or connections, they are some of the most comprehensive racing interviews you will ever see, the level of questioning and answers put to trainers and jockeys is the best there is anywhere, they make this joint (oz) and it's jouno's look like playskool.

The interview that ATR ran with Mark Johnston mid flat season was sensational, they were discussing all his horses in work one by one, when he got to Scatterdice he tipped that he would need further that what he had been racing over recently to show his best latter in the season, I copped the tip with my mate at work and even though we initially got it wrong and backed him in the Ebor, we were grinning from ear to ear a few weeks later when we saw him line up in the Cesarawitch and trot home at 66-1. Just one of the many fabulous interviews run daily in the UK.

You just stay asleep eh, that's where you belong anyway...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

And just for you Quez.

This was written 3/9/13 when Lethal Force was sold to Cheveley Park Stud prior to his last start.
This was three weeks after Sam Walker's ridicule of Wise Dan's connection for taking the easy option of running in "side dish" turf events in the USA.

"He also raised the possibility of Lethal Force ending his racing career at the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita in early November. “He has been nominated and the logical target for him is the 6½-furlong Turf Sprint.”

Cox thought long and hard about the bonuses and incentives offered to run Lethal Force at Flemington in the Patinack Farm Classic on the final day of the Melbourne Spring Carnival in November. “I would love to have gone down there and done a Black Caviar in reverse,” he said, “but if the horse is right, the Breeders’ Cup is now on the agenda. But let’s see how he runs on Saturday.”



According to his trainer a month after being beaten in France, he was still going to head to the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint.

Apparently he couldnt see what you could, either.

"Lethal Force never went to the US anyway so who cares, the horse was never coming to Australia or going anywhere after it's failure in France, anyone could see that coming"



Is that right Quez? It would seems as if you were the only one "who saw that coming"

This quoted by his trainer the very next day after the French defeat.....
"
Australian trip still a chance for Lethal Force
Brad Waters - 5/08/2013

Top UK galloper Lethal Force found French star Moonlight Cloud too good for him in the Group I Prix de Maurice de Gheest (6-1/2f) at Deauville but the defeat has not ended hopes of him taking on Australia's best sprinters in the spring.

Lethal Force led for most of Sunday's race but was no match for the explosive sprint of Moonlight Cloud in the final furlong, going down by 1-3/4 lengths.

However, Lethal Force still pleased trainer Clive Cox with his effort but he would assess the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and July Cup winner's recovery before deciding his immediate future.

"All credit to the winner. I am still very pleased with the performance of my horse and I was happy to bring him here after his July Cup win," Cox told Racing Victoria.

"It was run in a course record time and the ground was only just good so he's run a very brave race. At the end he was just beaten by a very good filly who was winning the race for the third time.

"As I have always said, we are taking it one race at a time and we will continue to do so. It is an honour to have been invited to Australiabut it is an enormous ask for the horse and we will wait and see how he comes out of this before making plans."


Can we put your quote into the "Black Caviar has been sold for $75m" basket of goodies that you've given the forum lately, or perhaps its a "Frankel will be retired at the end of his 3yo season reliable source that you had", tray?

Stick to the Numptyville Mudswimmers Stakes worth two bob and a bag of carrots at 3am on a Tuesday.

Lethal Force never went to the US anyway so who cares, the horse was never coming to Australia or going anywhere after it's failure in France, anyone could see that coming, relying on some of these racing media types for accurate info is useless for the most part.

What is also interesting about Sam Walker was his lack of criticism toward the connections of Lethal Force regarding his proposed trip to the Breeders Cup for the turf sprint this season.

In August he's having a snide dig at the connections of Wise Dan for sticking to the "second tier" turf surface. Yet at around the same time the Lethal Force team have shelved the Australian trip citing quarantine issues and didnt take up the challenge and go to Japan for the Sprinters Stakes instead. Where do they decide to go......USA

They took the Sam Walker termed "second tier" option of the BC Sprint.

Patsy, Adam or anyone else want to point the forum to the article Walker wrote where he has a shot at Lethal Forces' connections for taking an easy option?

Patsy, are you really that clueless?

Most people who work for racing outlets r just mug punters.

This guy isnt even close to being a good analyst let alone an imaginary expert.

You really dont know much do you?

Where r his own ratings and books?

Where r his millions from punting?

He is an employee and knows no more than the average joe in a pub.

That fact that a mug like yourself agrees with him just proves he is wrong.

Dear oh dear.

What relevance does that have because he was born here, does that make it ok to run down a horse or the races it competes in, does it?

The turf ratings have to have Wise Dan at the top over a mile because he's beaten Gr1 mile winners from France, England, Dubai and the USA. They'd look pretty silly rating a horse who hadn't beaten anyone, above him.

That doesnt mean Walker has bagged the racing in the USA on turf and the options his trainer has taken.

This from his article in August:
"Turf horses in the US have their own separate categories at the Eclipse Awards because they are a side dish. Dirt horses don't require separate awards because dirt is the main course. It's the surface everyone wants to win on; the surface they were all bred for.

Being the best turf horse in America is like being the best harness, quarter horse or show pony. It's commendable but largely irrelevant in racing circles unless you also happen to be top class on dirt."

- Its a "side dish" is it. Why are there several turf categories on the Breeders Cup card if its what he termed "second tier"

Or this:
"Since then it's been turf all the way. Connections have moulded him, whether he prefers it or not, into a horse who runs exclusively at a mile on turf - and because of this he hasn't faced a worthy opponent in four starts this year.

It's like Manchester United playing in League Two in order to always win. They would undoubtedly enjoy a perfect season, but the wins would prove they are the best only in League Two.

There is no evidence whatsoever, other than his rigid campaign, to suggest that Wise Dan is actually at his best over a mile on turf."


- What, running 1.31.78 in the 2012 BC mile didnt do it for you? Or the fact he was 9 from 10 on turf at the mile up until that article was written?

Walker's article was to make him look a little silly a few weeks later when Wise Dan went even quicker over the mile at Woodbine running 1.31.75s. The turf mile still wasn't his best trip?

The fact that not one European turned up for this years BC turf mile says enough. Last year Excelebration had come off back to back Gr1 mile wins in Europe and Moonlight Cloud had won a Gr1 mile in France.

This year none of them fronted up, but according to Walker in August......
"Over in France on Sunday there was a real turf race over a mile: the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville, which boasted six individual European Group 1 winners."

Well the winner of that "real" mile race couldnt keep up with Wise Dan last year and it was no surprise they didnt have another crack either.

And what happened to these other Gr1 winners, why didnt they head to the BC meeting if it was ok for those who went for the BC Turf stayers?

Walker has a habit of down playing every other racing centre because he, like most Europeans see their racing as superior. Wise Dan has beaten multiple Gr1 Euro winners in super fast time, yet this guy says there's no evidence he's a "true turf miler"

He talked up Lethal Force based on two runs on home turf against average opposition. The fact he used the term "best Australian horses in training" at the time of lauding this flash in the pan says it all when it was the middle of winter here.

And he's at it again regarding Gentledonna like she should be running out of her skin everytime she races. She won the biggest race in Japan and their wasnt a single supposed WFA European star to be seen in the race. Horses like The Fugue and Magician were in the USA going around in the Turf 2400m race against inferior opposition who are not known for their production of staying types like the Japanese are.

Sam Walker can come from Mars for all I and most race watchers are concern. He may be a ratings man but he should stick to ratings and keep his gob shut when it comes to rubbishing races around the world because he doesnt think the class is up to the European standard.

WS,

Sam Walker has a history of trash talking most racing outside Europe.

He has down played Wise Dan's achievements on turf in the USA by saying turf racing standard there was poor and he needed to win on dirt to be considered world class. But any turf horses from Europe who fail on dirt are world class anyway.

Wise Dan has broken the world record for a mile on turf, beaten Excelebration, Cityscape, Trade Storm, Moonlight Cloud and every other Euro runner to take him on over a mile.

But according to Walker he still has to win on dirt to be world class.

The funniest part about his comments regarding Lethal Force was his claim "no Australian sprinter in training would beat him"

Considering it was July and all the top Australian sprinters don't really kick off until Sept and the last of the better ones finished their last campaigns in Brisbane in mid June. He was right, none of them were in training except Shamexpress who was a 3yo having his third campaign at that age, in England.

“Whips you just want aggro.You love it.”

Don’t be ridiculous, you’re post s are riddled with complete ignorance and you sook when all in sundry point it out. Grow up or get a clue.

To say Orfevre would walk it in is clueless stuff when she beat him last year. Then again you said Lucky Nine was a shoe in too and look what happened.

If I was as thick as you I would say Hay List would have walked in the Golden Jubilee because BC beat him last time out and that was a weak field.

Face facts, you hopelessly lack common sense in practically every post. As well as your posts are blatantly and obviously angled at talking up Euro form when it’s not there. Why, because your one eyed (probably brown) and don’t know enough to compare rationally, your famous for irrational “Patsy form” for a reason.

Unfortunate for you you’re transparent and acting obnoxious as your theme is well spotted a long way back. Isn’t around now you do some more sooking or something….pfft

I sympathise with you that after your history you still hang around this place.

"And what did I get wrong?"





Do you really believe you assessed Dunaden correctly do you?

As has been pointed out to you.......numerous times on this thread. Dunaden was not, as you claimed, "hopelessly out of form" at all.

His form was very similar to his lead into the KG, his price was similar and the result was similar.

If I could draw in colored pencils and textas, I'd make it easier for you to understand what you got completely wrong. But unfortunately Microsoft haven't come up with a usb crayon or pencil to draw with, so you'll have to try and get your head around grown up text writing.

You claimed Dunaden was hopelessly out of form, you were wrong. Hopelessly wrong.

Back pedal, change your story, use the Arc as an example after the Japan Cup or change Coke to Pepsi, it still doesnt change the fact that you yet again got it horribly wrong and have come back......yet again claiming a totally different story.

“Dunaden ran well..”
“Dunaden ran a blinder”

Make up your mind??

“And what did I get wrong?”

Your usual drivel is wrong, Orfevre walking it in is a good start. It’s been pointed out to you by all and still you’re too thick to see it.

Similar WFA/Set Weights form leading into this race as had been the case prior to the KG.

Similar prepost price too.

And surprise, surprise, a similar beaten margin.

It would appear that you don't have a clue how to actually read a horses form and take notice of how a bookmaker assess its form either.

Dunaden didnt run a blinder, he didnt run out of his skin, nor did he leap tall buildings in a single bound or run faster than a speeding bullet.

He simply ran to his current form, just as he did in the KG.

Typical of you, throw your hands up and get the sulks. You got it wrong about the pricing, plain and simple.

In Dunaden's three runs prior to the MC this year he went off as second favourite each time. In the race he was beaten by Novellist he went out as the more favoured of the two behind CDA and that was in June, not March. Even in Sept the bookmakers thought he was the best chance of beating Orfevre, they rated him a 4/1 chance as opposed to the favourite who was 9/10.

Last year leading into the KG he went off as 3rd fav - fav - 2nd fav.

Bookmakers have clearly rated him on a very similar scale to the lead into the the KG last year.

8 mths is nothing. A horse can go from 8 to 20 but not 50. Plodsy is clueless once again.

As per usual, you back pedal and head off on some tangent.

Dunaden was beaten 6l by Orferve, 1.5l by Novellist and 3.5l by SNA.

How is that lead up form any different from his three lead ups going into the KG? What ever age the horse is and who he faced isn't relevant, betting prices are based on how a bookmaker rates their chances. And those ratings would be, correct my if I'm wrong here, based on the horses ability and current form?

His three lead up runs have been similar (not withstanding his MC run) to his KG path and his price is not dramatically dissimilar to his starting price in the KG.

So even if we think a horse like Simonen should be 50/1, he's still rate the equal to Dunaden. And with Dunaden no better and at worse slightly lower than when he ran in the KG, its safe to say that a bookmaker (and not you) would have the horse far shorter than the 40/1 than you claim he'd go off at.

You can go off on your little colorful tangents and babble on about which horses would or could do backflips and a triple somersault with pike out of the gates at Ascot and still win. The fact is that Simonen would be rated far lower in a KG (not the Arc as you have changed it to now) than what you claimed.

You got it wrong, take your own advice and move on.

Racing Post article..

Euro raiders cautious about Japan Cup chances
By Nicholas Godfrey in Tokyo 5:19PM 21 NOV 2013

EUROPE has three runners in this weekend's Japan Cup but it seems none of their connections are overly confident about their chances of landing one of the world's richest prizes at Tokyo racecourse on Sunday.

On the other hand, Ryan Moore might have reason to celebrate as his mount Gentildonna has been identified as the horse to beat in the 521 million yen (£3.23m) contest. Moore, who partnered Sunday's rival Joshua Tree to win the Canadian International on his most recent start, is replaced by Johnny Murtagh on the six-year-old, who is joined by French-trained Dunaden and Ireland's Simenon in the 33rd running of the Japan Cup.

Gentildonna, 2-1 joint favourite alongside Gold Ship with Paddy Power, is bidding to become the first repeat winner of Japan's richest race, having scored under Yasunari Iwata in 2012, when she also landed the fillies' Triple Crown.

Ed Dunlop's assistant Andrew Stringer, overseeing Joshua Tree's preparation, rates Gentildonna as the horse to watch.

"Obviously Ryan Moore is one of the finest jockeys in the world riding one of the best Japanese horses so he's got to be a big danger to everyone in the field," said Stringer.

"There are three Japanese horses - Gentildonna, Gold Ship and Eishin Flash - all of whom have form 10lb superior to Joshua Tree so we need one of those to run poorly to get into the serious prize-money."

Canadian International victor Joshua Tree, Britain's sole representative, has been handed the outside post in a 17-runner field.

In 32 previous runnings of Japan's richest race, no horse has ever won drawn higher than 16, though admittedly only 15 horses have started from such wide gates and lower double-figure posts have been no barrier to success over the years in the 1m4f event.

A total of 17 winners have come from between gates ten and 16, which is good news for Europe's other two representatives as French-trained Dunaden is drawn ten, four inside Willie Mullins' Simenon.

The European trio all stretched their legs at Tokyo racecourse on Thursday morning, where Joshua Tree was in top shape.

"At this stage he'd be 110 per cent - he couldn't be any better," added Stringer.

"The track here should be right up his street as he loves to gallop and this stiff mile and a half should bring out all of his fighting qualities. I think he's the real deal at the moment. He looks fantastic; he's at the top of his game."

The Canadian International is one of several qualifying races for the lucrative Japan Cup bonus scheme, whereby a horse winning both races earns an extra $888,000 (£571,000). Even third place would net Joshua Tree's connections an extra $222,000 (£142,000).

Joshua Tree is aiming to become the fifth British-trained winner of the Japan Cup after Jupiter Island (1986), Singspiel (1996), Pilsudski (1997) and Alkaased (2005).

Dunaden is ridden by Jamie Spencer while Richard Hughes retains the ride on Simenon, whom he rode to finish fourth in the Emirates Melbourne Cup.

William Buick also has a mount on locally trained outsider Tosen Jordan.

How is Dunaden's current form far worse than it was leading into the KG?

Into the KG he was beaten by Al Kazeem (6l), Aitken (3.5l) and Sea Moon (3.5l) They were all at WFA.

Take a look at his current last three runs at WFA and explain to me how he would be 50's on current form, yet deserved to be 8's in the KG on the above form.

Here is your answer Quez why Simenon is a chance, another horse that performs better on firm ground than the bog holes back home.

“We're happy. We're not particularly worried about the firm and fast turf here, he has good form on very fast ground, especially his last start, the Melbourne Cup, was very fast as well, but he came out of that perfect with no problems at all. He has a preference for fast ground, which is why we came here”

Another like Red Cadeaux and co. that has seen the light. They grow an extra leg abroad enjoying the better tracks and globe-trotting gig, can’t see him hanging around home for long other than a chill out.

Looks like the Oz form is valued more as well. Joshua Tree coming off a win in a 2400m G1 at $17 kind of ranks that win as cheap and more like a G3.

In fairness, A few of their better ones are missing the race Fagan.

I would have thought both Dunaden and Joshua Tree would be beter suited to a Japan Cup than Simenon, but he has arrived in Japan in good form, but I cannot see him being in the finish. Although it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong if he was to surprise.

"He'd be 40's in a king george/arc imo on home soil."





Incorrect speculation from you again, patsy.

He's posted as 14's with William Hill, the same price as Dunaden. And Dunaden started at 8/1 in last years King George against Danedream, Nathaniel, SNA and co.

So, using the market and not his form/ability as the correct guide then he would not be 40's in the King George.

All that aside, I think the horse is a 50's chance anyway. A low level handicapper who has a good finish in a two mile handicap doesn't make it a walk up top four chance in any WFA race.

As bad as our WFA staying stocks are, there is no way a horse like Simonen would start at 8/1 in the BMW, let alone the Japan Cup. He couldn't beat an out of sorts Sea Moon with a weight advantage.

MARKET~

GOLDSHIP $3.00
GENTILDONNA $3.50
SIMENON $9
DUNADEN $13
EISHIN FLASH $15
JOSHUA TREE $17
ADMIRE RAKTI $21
DENIM AND RUBY $21
-BAR

SIMENON installed 3rd favorite @ $9 behind GOLD SHIP $3.00 and GENTILDONNA $3.50

6th is no good to punters anyway! Reckon he will be bottom 5

Patsy I would not be surprised to see SIMENON go alright, I expect he will enjoy a fast run race..?

Joshua Tree/Simenon/Dunaden?

Ewww.

That's a shame.