Not going down Without A Fight

This was a fantastic Caulfield Cup with a brutal tempo bringing the best horses to the fore, and it was Without A Fight who took all honours. He had he lameness query earlier in the week which was well publicised, but I think what hasn't been mentioned as much is that he was only second up with a month between runs, going 1800-2400m.

A & S Freedman did this by design, but to have him at peak fitness to be so strong in such a fast race was an excellent training effort, and peak is exactly what he's done.

Timeform make his win 124, which is up three pounds on his previous best which came when winning The Q22. That's 14 pounds higher than Durston and one pound higher than Gold Trip (with 57.5kg) in last year's edition.

The last horse to run to exactly 124 to win the Caulfield Cup was Descarado in 2010, but sits in between the likes of Mer De Glace (122) and Best Solution (125) in more recent years, with Incentivise (129) the best winner since Dunaden (130) in 2012.

The time was outstandingly strong due to the fast early pace and as mentioned, the class horses came to the fore, with the trifecta carrying 55.5, 54 and 58.5 kilograms respectively.

All three of Without A Fight, West Wind Blows and Gold Trip were excellent. West Wind Blows has run to his absolute best at 120. He's a chance of dropping back to 2000m in the Group 1 Champions Stakes (2000m). That race could come up a bit thin this year and he'll be a strong chance.

Without A Fight and Gold Trip are likely to press on to the Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m), the latter probably via Saturday's Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m).

Without A Fight failed in last year's Melbourne Cup but I think he's capable of figuring this year. The ground was blamed as the main factor last time and while a strong 2400m doesn't always translate to 3200m, he's deserving of another chance.

Invariably a good lead up to the Melbourne Cup, the Caulfield Cup is often about finding the one best suited to two miles at Flemington and outside of the obvious, I really liked the run of Valiant King. He sat fifth in the run and copped a few bumps around the turn, then got quite tight between runners at the 200m and had to stop and check. He still held his ground well late, holding off Soulcombe and Breakup to finish sixth. Whether he'll run 3200m remains to be seen but if they do push on to the Melbourne Cup, I think he'll be competitive again.

Breakup was perhaps the other one that can improve. His best form in Japan is over 3000-3200m and he'll take benefit from Saturday. I thought he loomed up with a rough chance into the straight and just battled the last 200m but he does have a fair bit of ground to make up.

 

Riff Rocket Rolled

One of the shortest favourites ever during the Caulfield Cup carnival, Riff Rocket was officially beaten at $1.28, the same price Zaaki was beaten by Probabeel in the 2021 Caulfield Stakes.

I think he's still clearly the horse to beat in the Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) and would be incredibly disappointed if they didn't push on. This race was an absolute farce. They've run (on a good 3), over three seconds slower than the class average.

This was not a test of talent at all. Riff Rocket gave the leader Sunsets two lengths on the turn and that was all it took because they simply couldn't run much faster late. He also didn't handle Caulfield all that well with James Mcdonald saying post-race he was on his wrong leg and would relish getting back to Flemington.

To explain the performance a bit better, imagine racing against Usain Bolt over 100m, and you get a 5m head start, but for the first 80m, you both walk. Suddenly he has to sprint 20m in the time it takes you to sprint 15m (which he probably would), but it'd be quite close because it's not a true test.

The commentary suggesting he can't win a Derby because he can't stay, based off Saturday, is ridiculous, because it wasn't more than a 400m sprint. His SP here will ensure he stays favourite for the Derby but we may get a better price now and realistically, he won't have to beat much more than what the market said he was a 78% chance of doing on Saturday.

It's also worth noting we've seen very similar scenarios twice in the past five years. Both Warning and Extra Brut won the Super Impose at Flemington, were beaten at Caulfield and bounced back to win the Derby. I'm tipping he'll do the same.