2008 November 03 15:59:55
1 SEPTIMUS Aidan O'Brien Johnny Murtagh 10 58.5
Septimus comes here with not only the reputation of being Europe’s best stayer, but also the backing of perhaps the world’s biggest player on the international racing stage. This means he must be respected, but history tells us that, despite their obvious ability, horses of his ilk, such as Yeats and Vinnie Roe have been grinders rather than the kind of horse that usually wins the Cup. It took a soggy track slugfest to make Vinnie Roe truly competitive in a Cup and I suspect Septimus would require similar conditions. In his favour is the fact that this will likely be solidly run due to the probable pace-making tactics from team Coolmore.
I would be inclined to put him on the bottom rung of multiples, but I don’t see him winning.
2 MASTER O'REILLY Danny O'Brien Vlad Duric 6 55.0
Horses that are coming back for another go at the Melbourne Cup after failing to threaten in their previous effort rarely make much of an impact. I suspect that will be the case with Master O’Reilly here. His Caulfield Cup run was decent and they’ve tinkered with his preparation to try and get him to peak here, but I see the distance as a major query as well as the fact that I don’t see enough improvement in him to overcome the weight rise from last year as well as a rise in this year’s field quality. I’m leaving him out.
3 HONOLULU Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donoghue 24 54.5
Even for the Euro’s who like a bit of galloping space, barrier 24 is an awful draw for racing under Australian conditions. I would suggest this draw has assigned him the role of Coolmore’s #1 sacrificial lamb. There doesn’t appear to be any advantage to Coolmore in having this bloke sitting four wide the trip or being jagged back to the tail. O’Donoghue will use up his mount to go forward and ensure a tempo that suits his stable mates. He will probably stick on at the end further than most would expect, but I think the sacrificial efforts he will make through the race will eventually tell. I will leave him out.
4 C'EST LA GUERRE John Sadler Brett Prebble 5 54.0
I’m a big fan of this horse and I think he’s been ticking over just nicely with this race in mind. One must be mindful of the fact that this is the same stable that unleashed Efficient on this race last year after a quiet build-up. His Cox Plate run was a good Melbourne Cup trial, and the form from that race looks good for horses that made up ground in the straight, comparing well with the Caulfield Cup form. He looks a genuine stayer and the form out of his NZ Derby win is now undisputed. Any give in the track will certainly be in his favour. He is a leading chance.
5 NOM DU JEU Murray Baker Jeff Lloyd 1 54.0
Possibly not the ideal draw for this horse, but, as they say, it’s easier to get off the fence than get on it. He will have a very economical run and then it will be up to his experienced pilot to get him a clear run at them in the straight. If he gets this, his Caulfield Cup effort – the second best in the race behind the winner – suggests he will be right there in the finish. It’s always a query til they’ve run the distance, but based on previous efforts over the longer courses and his staying pedigree, the two miles should not be a problem. He is a top chance in the race.
6 YELLOWSTONE Jane Chapple-Hyam John Egan 12 54.0
As I write this, there is some speculation this horse is still under the eyes of the RVL vets and may yet be withdrawn. If not withdrawn, and there is nothing wrong with the horse, I think he’s over the odds at the current quote of 100/1. Although a well-beaten third in the Newburgh behind All The Good, his run with the top weight had a bit of merit. And the failure behind Septimus last start can be completely ignored due to the bottomless state of the track that day and the fact that the horse was basically pulled up, accordingly, the last 300m. The jockey has also shown the ability to ride well in a Melbourne Cup previously, which is an advantage. If right, I think he’s one to throw in for value in the multiples, but, from a punting point of view, I’d prefer they withdraw him with differing views over whether he’s right or not.
7 ZIPPING John Sadler Danny Nikolic 16 54.0
You have to respect Zipping because of the top notch form he brings into the Cup and the fact that he has been valiant in this race before. That said, I think he just fails to run out the 3200m and with barrier 16 and the likelihood it will a very solidly run Cup, I think he may be up against it. An alternate viewpoint, that has some merit, may be that the barrier and the tempo might allow him to drift back, slot in and attempt to nail them with his trademark final withering sprint. I think he will be running home, but I think it will be into a place or on the fringes of the placings at best.
8 MAD RUSH Luca Cumani Damien Oliver 4 53.5
His Caulfield Cup run was good, but I wasn’t as taken with it as many others seem to be. I thought the winner and Nom Du Jeu produced far superior efforts, for example. That said, Mad Rush should be better suited at Flemington and should take some improvement from the run – and that puts him right in the mix. I don’t think he showed the acceleration in the Caulfield Cup that some of his rivals have in their arsenal. For this reason, the Coolmore tempo may suit him, but there have also been a few whispers around about whether he quite has the stamina for a genuinely run 3200m. I won’t be backing him for the win, but I think, queries aside, you’d be mad (pun not intended) not to include him in multiples.
9 ICE CHARIOT Ron Maund Michael Rodd 22 53.0
In an old-school Cup, people might have been getting quite excited about a horse they know runs a genuine 3200m, who ran on superbly in a Mackinnon Stakes and was very solid in the Caulfield Cup. When you throw in the fact that he has the form jockey of the moment, who just happened to be last year’s Cup winning rider, and, if this was the 80’s, you’d have a genuine winning chance. The Cup landscape has changed since then, but some of the old theories still hold plenty of sway, so this old bloke has to be respected. Barrier 22 probably puts him further back in the run than he’d want to be, but he’ll get a good ride and run out every inch of the trip. One for the multiples.
10 VIEWED Bart Cummings Blake Shinn 9 53.0
The trainer’s name alone means you have to give this horse some respect, but it’s possibly one of only a few ticks in this horse’s favour. He hasn’t had a lot of luck in recent racing and, even then, hasn’t been disgraceful, but it’s hard to see him taking the step up to win this. His best chance would come if the heavens opened up and flooded the track. I will be leaving him out.
11 LITTORIO Nigel Blackiston Steven King 17 52.5
A one-time favourite for the Cup following his Turnbull run, his recent form has seen him get out to around the 30/1 mark. I believe this to be a fair indication of his chances. As I indicated in my Caulfield Cup preview, I believed his Turnbull run was over-rated by many on the back of the fact they saw it as a weight for age win where he was, in fact, in the race incredibly well under the set weights and penalties conditions. His runs in the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes have been only fair and there must be serious doubts about his ability to stay the trip. Barrier 17 probably sees him get back further than he wants to be, and it will be very tough for him from there. I can’t include him.
12 BAUER Luca Cumani Corey Brown 13 52.0
He was unconvincing in winning the Geelong Cup. He won that race decisively, but the other class runners in the race were basically taken out as factors in the race due to circumstance. Moatize should have finished a lot closer than he did, as should have Guyno, and Light Vision was never given a chance due to wide running. On the surface, that form looks to have been franked by Moatize winning the Saab, but that was basically just the same horses going around again. That form is, in my estimation, a bit below the Moonee Valley Cup form which, in itself, looks below what will be required to win this race. I couldn’t have Bauer as a winning chance, but may include on my bottom rung of multiples.
13 BOUNDLESS Steve McKee Greg Childs 20 52.0
She didn’t have a lot of luck in the Caulfield Cup, but there was probably still the sense she was outclassed and poorly weighted against other runners – as, of course, she is again here. I think the distance is also a massive query with her and the drawing of barrier 20 is not in her favour. I will be leaving her out.
14 GALLOPIN Danny O'Brien James Winks 21 52.0
He comes into this as last start winner of the Moonee Valley Cup. In recent years, that form hasn’t been good enough to win this race. I expect that to be the case again this year and, even then, I think there were a couple of hard luck stories that finished behind Gallopin in that race that represent better chances here. As an in-form horse with a good record over staying trips, he won’t disgrace himself, but, overall, others look to have him well and truly covered. Barrier 21 will not help his cause either. Not for me.
15 GUYNO Lou Luciani Craig Newitt 8 52.0
An unlucky runner in the Geelong Cup, his form is okay, but below what is required to feature in the finish here. Others definitely look to have his measure.
16 ZARITA Pat Hyland Dwayne Dunn 7 52.0
Scratched.
17 NEWPORT Paul Perry Chris Symons 15 51.5
The Metropolitan winner didn’t have a lot of luck in the Moonee Valley Cup, where he also had to carry a big weight under the conditions. From that race, he gets a 2.5kg turnaround on Gallopin at the weights and should receive a better run and luck from the barrier. He has a good record over longer course races, gives the impression he will stay all day and is a Cup carnival winner in his only start at the track. He represents an outside place hope. One for the multiples.
18 PROFOUND BEAUTY Dermot Weld Glen Boss 2 51.5
She is really the unknown factor going into the race. Her record reads only modestly, but her trackwork, from all reports, has been terrific and her trainer and jockey both having winning records in this race. Those factors probably explain why she appears a little over-hyped and under-priced in markets. As with most European horses, she would probably appreciate a bit of galloping room, so the barrier may not be ideal. I probably couldn’t include her on form, but, due to the unknown, I will out of respect for Mr Weld, who previously brought out the under-credentialed Media Puzzle to win this race.
19 RED LORD Anthony Cummings Nicholas Hall 14 51.5
He appeared to be flying earlier in his campaign before going off the boil, though his Moonee Valley Cup run was not awful. He stays, but whether he stays fast enough is what is in question. He failed to beat a much weaker field over the two miles in the Sydney Cup and tends to be found out in this kind of company. He did win at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November, but, realistically, it would be hard to see him back in the winner’s stall tomorrow.
20 VAREVEES Richard Gibson Craig Williams 23 51.5
This mare doesn’t come here in career best form having failed at her past three and spectacularly at her most recent. Barrier 23 will make it more difficult for her and it makes the decision to risk leaving out one of the unknown horses a bit safer. A note to consider is that this horse is Australian-owned. I only mention this because I am always wary of Australian-owned overseas-based horses that are brought here to race in the Melbourne Cup, as I believe they are mostly not here for the right reasons (i.e. they are here because the owners want a Melbourne Cup runner, not because they believe they have the right horse). I will be leaving her out.
21 PRIZE LADY Graeme Sanders Mark Sweeney 18 51.0
Her last start was dreadful in weak company, but her start before that was a respectable effort in the Kelt. As a dual Auckland Cup winner, perhaps her last start effort can be explained away by the suspicion she was looking for further than the 2000m at that stage. That said, I think she will give a good honest account of herself, but will be outclassed in this company. Barrier 18 will make it a little bit trickier too. Not for me.
22 ALESSANDRO VOLTA Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 11 50.5
Whilst the initial suspicion may be that this horse is here as part of team Coolmore’s pace-making plan for Septimus, I believe he has to be respected in his own right. He comes here having run in, and acquitted himself well in, some very prestigious races. Despite the fact he is a three year old by Northern Hemisphere time, I still believe him to be well-weighted. He is drawn ideally and will roll forward and may just be the one who can keep on going. I see the possibility of a Give The Slip type performance from him. I will be including.
23 BARBARICUS Peter Moody Stephen Baster 3 50.5
His form simply cannot be faulted. He ran a very strong 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and then came out and ran a very close 2nd in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. From that run, he drops significantly in weight tomorrow. He must be considered a risk at the trip though and may need every milligram of that weight relief to take up a forward position and remain there at the end of the journey. I will include him because his form reads so well, but I am sceptical of his ability to run the journey in this field.
24 MOATIZE Bart Cummings Clare Lindop 19 50.0
As mentioned before, I don’t think the Geelong/Saab form is quite good enough to win this race. He does have Bart in his corner and a very light weight, but barrier 19 will be a negative factor for him as it will put him back further in the field than he would ideally like and will make his job tougher. Maybe include him on the very bottom rung of multiples, but I’d be pretty confident leaving him out.
Re: GROUPIES RESULTS Autumn 2022 Final
