Rosehill Guineas Lay

gladys
2019 March 22 13:23:15 
The Autumn Sun is way unders here. He won a pretty ordinary Caulfield Guineas in slow time, just look at the place getters to get an idea of the standard.

His two wins back have not been very convincing. He just got to Fundamentalist in the last few strides in his latest race. Fundamentalist was being beaten in Melbourne and came to Sydney for easier races. If you watch his last run, Madison County was three lengths behind him when he made his run and finished up two lengths off him at the post.

He is presently at $1.33 on fixed odds. Should be about $3.00 at least.

I will be laying him.
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5 Comments

theking

2019 April 10 22:42:28

Gladys,
You said:
"Just fell in and against what?"

If you really think that this was a poor field ala "against what?"

THEN WHY DID YOU LAY HIM DOPEY?

nigeltufnel

2019 April 08 19:01:10

Chortle and guffaw.

N.T. ;-)

Hands N Heels

2019 March 26 13:26:25

I posted on this thread last Friday but it did not get through even not there was nothing contentious. In any case I agreed at the time TAS was too short under those conditions but I had no doubt about his ability.

The real issue with the race in my view was the complete lack of pace and that was his vulnerability. Looking at comparative times against the Ranvet, albeit older horses vs 3YOs, it did paint quite a picture. The genuine pace in the Ranvet was offered by HE’S EMINENT running 1.04.55 for the first 1000, almost 2 full secs quicker than TAS (about 12L ordinarily but we’ll amend to 10L to allow for the HVY 8) and 1.42 secs (about 7L) faster than Guineas pacemaker CROWN PROSECUTOR. That particular leader folded, not that surprising for a dubious 100/1 NZ Derby winner but I believe his dawdling pace allowed ARROGANT to stick on and gave TAS a fight. In saying that I don’t think TAS handled the conditions all that well. The last time he tackled a heavy Rosehill he got beaten in the Stan Fox (1500) in a very slow 1.33.82, even if unlucky, so there might be something in that. Different days etc. but most of WINX’s opposition bettered that time in the Ryder in similar conditions. TAS did fall in but it had much less to do with his ability and a heck of a lot to do with the pace, anyone who did just a shred of form on that race would know have known that going in.

It was for the opposite reason in my view that AVILIUS did so well. He was brought into it by a decent pace. At the top of the straight he ran, on comparative times to that point, 2.5-3L slower than TAS yet ran home 0.6 secs (about 3L) quicker. That’s almost a full second over the last 400m.

Ramses

2019 March 23 23:27:47

It's the glad/khap infection that put an end to my afl tips, was keen on Lions today/top 8/top4. Just can't be effed posting. Made a profit with my AFL thread a few years ago, but turned off posting by glad/khap. Will stick to losing Ruffies.

gladys

2019 March 26 13:51:36

I have never posted anything about AFL Ramses. I don't follow the game and never have.

If you are so distressed about not being able to post about that stupid game then just bar me. In relation to my posts, simple, don't read them.

Problem solved!

Mantank

2019 March 22 15:02:24

I agree the price is way too short, but to suggest the two wins this time in have not been convincing is absolutely staggering. You might know price and value, but gees, you are a poor judge of horseflesh and race rating.

gladys

2019 March 22 19:03:23

I may be very wrong Mantank, but when those front runners are going up and down on the one spot, it always looks like the back runners who could not go the early pace, are Bernborough.

I am quite happy to find out having layed at 1/2.

gladys

2019 March 23 13:05:10

Unfortunately Madison County is a late scratching.

I think he would have won this race.

gladys

2019 March 23 14:56:13

Just fell in and against what?

They will retire him immediately.

larch

2019 March 26 16:28:59

Yes, the retire him rhetoric is growing (especially now with the redoubtes news.)

We will never know if he is/was any good.

Rex

2019 March 26 20:34:35

So we can add AFL to Racing as things you know nothing about.

Is there anything, anything at all that you have even some clue about Bop Bag?

theking

2019 March 23 23:36:37

"against what?"

A NZ Derby winner

A duel Guineas winner like himself

A horse that was narrowly beaten in the Champion Stakes

Other than that not much at all.

Mantank

2019 March 23 17:48:30

If you cant understand why that was a super win, you have no hope.

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