KING STAND STAKES

2006 June 22 13:31:10

Dooly,

Hope you had a good win on TT it was great to watch whether you were a financial supporter of same or not. Money is not always the issue.

Your first sentence explains why most bookmakers drive expensive cars while a lot of investors use public transport.

Regards

Timesman

umrum

2006 June 21 23:19:18

what about the run of Falkirk, a mile too far back, blocked for a run, held up, had to come inside where whole field was infront of him and had to come of heels. ran a great race, finsed fourth and with another 200m would have swamped them. If he backs up, he's the one to beat. Think he'll run a great race.

Put Callow back on.

2006 June 21 22:09:13

JaQal,

Exactly correct. Out of interest, is there any prohibition in the TAB charter on the issue of "laying off"? Does anyone know?

Again, great victory, and lets hope for a repeat dose from another Aussie on the weekend.

Regards

Timesman

slim

2006 June 21 15:00:58

Oh how great it is...sat up and listened to Takeover Target's race even though I had an early start in golf in the morning.
Was worth it...I almost fell out of my chair with excitement. Massive ride by young Jay to get TT over into a supurb racing position, nurse and rate him so well and then have enough up his sleeve to hold on and win...super ride, I reckon it will be the ride of the carnival.
I never had anything on him but I am overjoyed with the victory...did tip him to my brother in law in England though, hope he had something on the horse.
Looking forward to Saturday, he should have a good chance of backing up again with another win...here is hoping!

2006 June 21 14:37:16

Scenic,

I am glad you had a win, I was on La Cuca.

TT on course was 7/1 yet 5/2 with TAB in Aust. If you subscribe to the theory any winner is a good winner then, in the long term you will win less.

I am pleased TT won for Australia and the connections but taking 5/2 (or even 3/1) versus a starting price of 7/1 is not what I would call a value investment. I wouldn't have posted the term "sucker" just thought it.

Hope you have some more success.

Regards

Timesman

PS Isn't the venue great. What a buzz, even saw Richie Benaud on the TV.

doosra

2006 June 21 13:37:43

Quinny

Of course we can call him a champion :) He's an absolute bloody legend :)

What a brave horse he is with his wonky legs and his big heart - and WHAT a return on $1400 he has given.

It really is a racing fairytale, they don't happen all that often but when they do it's priceless. Well done Joe and TT :)

How well are the Aussies going on the international stage at the moment?

The Socceroos, Takeover Target, "our Lleyton" broke his winning drought and goes into Wimbledon in good form, even Scud The Dud has managed to snare a wildcard into the tournament due to actually winning something somewhere.

It's all good.....

The Mighty Quinn

2006 June 21 11:24:39

Super win and what a story, will only get better for Saturday's race, I reckon.

Can I call him a champion ??

Well done Joe, Jay, the Champ and all involved with the horse.

2006 June 20 21:26:06

Racing Gal,

One of the problems with attempting to pass an intelligent comment on this analysis is the lack of a form guide. I think this is addressed in a recent thread.

On pure numbers, at 9.20 pm tonight (fixed odds), TAB has TT at $3.50 and La Cucaracha at $8.50, based on a story on this site out of UK, La Cucaracha is now into about 11/2 with some bookmakers, from as much as 10/1.

I don't know what the pooled figues are as the TAB doesn't have market up yet, but you seem to be getting about 1.5 points over the local price due to the prescence of the Australia favourite runner.

Hope you have some luck.

Regards

Timesman

PS I am having a little interest La Cucaracha, La Cucaracha, . Please sing along at your leisure.

doosra

2006 June 20 20:38:27

Pivotal Point has a great record at the track and at about 50-1 with Dettori to ride might be one who could put some value in trifectas!

With such a huge field it's going to look like the charge of the Light Brigade.

honky

2006 June 20 22:04:16

It is difficult to see glamour puss winning

with 130 pounds, and it is takeover target's

133 pounds that may carry the day. His form

compared to the others would be 7 pounds

superior and so i have to recommend the more

than ready filly, la chunga. she is placed

next to takeover in the machine, and his grand

commitment will allow those 2 to , bias aside,

take up the running out wide and fight the

finish. la chunga resumed in the guineas and

didn't run the mile, and to take these ones on

second time out tells me she is a smart one.

1.la chunga

2. tt

3.moss vale

regards

honky

Torpedo Punt

2006 June 20 21:19:40

Can't believe no ones mentioned Glamour Puss.

Is she going that badly over there?

Im gonna be one at 9/1 :)

Torp..

emmandy

2006 June 20 15:36:32

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie - wouldn't it be nice

mcgarret

2006 June 20 13:25:06

Bigdaddy

$6.20 is available on Betfair (admittedly for small change at this stage)for TT as I type.

Do you really think he will be as short as 9/4 on Saturday if he wins today?

Who is offering the 20's the double?

If the race is as weak yourself and Patsy suggest, I might get involved at $6.20.

Any advice on the above appreciated.

Enjoying your missives from the front line.

Much appreciated.

Aloha...McGarret

2006 June 20 17:26:13

Ladbrokes are offering 20/1 the double as I write.
TT has a 5lb penalty for the Kings Stand. Will go into the GJ with a good weight pull on todays rivals as it is run at WFA (Kings Stand WFA plus penalties). If he can win today, he could go off as short as 5/2 I think. Has the weight drop, we know he has travelled well and racing over a trip he is more proven at. Like I say, if he wins today, he should win on Saturday

mcgarret

2006 June 20 21:43:09

Thanks Bigdaddy

Your logic sounds OK.

TT out to 6.40 on Betfair.

The 60.5kg might just be managable over the 5f.

With the Queen bein' in attendance, our most famous taxi driver may yet feel at home.

Cheers...McGarret

doosra

2006 June 20 13:06:44

Lol Racing Gal

Yes, clearly TT knows nothing about racing and winning on firm tracks having only carried 60kg to victory at Doomben, to name but one example :)

You wonder how some people get and keep their jobs

I just read an interview online with the trainer of the veteran The Tatling who runs again this year, and he was saying he is happy with the track because both The Tatling and his other runner Corridoor Creeper perform best when they can get their toe in a little and that's exactly what they're going to have underfoot.

As near as I can figure it what they call "good to firm" we call a genuine good 3.

All the best to the Aussies!
It would be so fantastic to see Joe and TT just roll on with the fairytale...he's such a great horse.

Apparently barriers don't mean all that much in this race so TT and "The Puss" should have every chance. I wonder which Falkirk will be putting his hoof forward this time?

No doubt all three possess the ability to win but TT looks the standout as long as he has travelled okay. Good luck to them all and wouldn't it be great if they ran the trifecta :)

Dandy Man, Reverence, Resplendent Glory and Baltic King look the best local chances to me....but it's really just educated guessing...and all are at double figure odds so I might have to have a little speculate on a couple. It should be a great race.

GO THE AUSSIES :)

blink

2006 June 20 09:07:58

Is there a link or site on the net that we can watch the race tonight live.
Blink.

Racing Gal

2006 June 20 11:31:09

Maybe the Racing Post site will show the race.

It is definitely on Sky and TNV. TNV coverage starts from 10.30 with Bruce Clark hosting. I have obtained the Fields from Sportinglife.

One of the tipsters has virtually overlooked the Australian contingent and said that Takeover Target will be running on harder ground than he has run on before. Do these people know nothing about Australian tracks. I am sure their hardest track would certainly be softer than a fast track here. Just ask Dermot Weld.

marbine

2006 June 20 14:00:48

Nice job Patsy, make sure you cover all bases. So what you are saying is that the Aussie horses are on a hiding to nothing. Some of these so called weak horses have only had a handful of starts so their status is not yet confirmed. Based on form the Aussies should run very well though I think that they will be better suited by the 1200m on Saturday.

2006 June 21 04:35:03

no wasnt making it sound as though u were on a hiding to nothing re TT..i backed the horse quite strong EW and was cheering him home like you...i have no faith in european sprinters whatsoever,hopeless...saying that the race on saturday is much stronger and TT did only win by a nose..

2006 June 21 09:19:48

Pastsy,
I dont see where the added strength for Saturdays race is. Ifraaj (Godolphin not convincing enough for me) and Amadeus Wolf (unproven against older horses). TT had nothing in its favour today and still won. Should donkey lick them on Saturday. That 20/1 for the double is sure looking good now!!

What a brilliant ride from Ford to get him across from the other side of the track and still have enough to win. Absolutely brilliant ride.
Couldnt resist having another go at TT when he got out to 7/1. Sorry all you suckers who took $3.50 in Oz!!

scenic_warrior

2006 June 21 11:36:25

Suckers? Er we got the chocolates didn't we? Yep the money is in my account! If they had totes on that race, TT would have been $2.50 so I'm very happy with the $4 I got on TAB sportsbet. I'm tipping the TAB took a hiding on this result..

JaQaL

2006 June 21 20:54:49

scenic,

why would they take a hiding at $4 when they could lay off at $6+ with overseas firms (excluding betfair?).

scenic_warrior

2006 June 21 23:30:23

Good point Jaqual if indeed Tab Sportsbet lay off as you suggest. My point is rank and file punters who don't have betfair or other betting shop accounts only had one choice to back TT. The horse won and my little bet of $25 saw a return of $100. I couldn't care less what other people got but good luck to them at the same time. I was just rapt to see Takeover Target salute.

Dooly_Boy

2006 June 22 12:31:57

Any price is a good price if you back a winner. You can only beat what's put in front of you and TT did it like a true champion should in conditions and surroundings that he is not used to.

Interesting point that will cause great debate - if TT wins the Golden Jubilee & the July Cup, should he get the horse of the year title over Makybe Diva? I think so.

iglesia

2006 June 22 13:29:05

He'd be 100/1 for the HOTY even if he won the two Group Ones over there - sprinters don't win it, he did nothing in the Spring, and even the English don't rate their short course horses

kevin brest

2006 June 21 18:58:34

honky,

spot on with your assessment of tt, but be
careful about bias towards what you're familiar
with.......and as for the honkers form, the sprint there is wfa and the runner up to takeover did not compete at wfa last night...
saturday will sort out the wfa form....cheers

Rex

2006 June 21 18:30:33

I suspected he would be shorter over home than here in the UK, but 7/2 is way unders. I got 7/1 here in the UK and had £100 straight on him. Missed the forecast(exacta). Took TT on top from 5 other including the 3rd horse for £10. Paid $200. Oh well cant complain.

Isnt it great to see the Aussies back on top in sport.

Rahs Rahs are winning again;
TT great win;
Taikun won in the states i believe;
Socceroos still very much alive
G.O wins the golf, Webb back in form
Hewitt wins a tourny for the 1st time in 17 months;
Stosur takes at the doubles in the French;
Now for the Ashes

cheers

riv

2006 June 21 15:49:09

did anyone notice glamour puss, great run and ill have her in the golden jubilee at value,
dont get me wrong, TT is the better horse but he worked hard early in that run (how r the legs?) the puss was pushing thru at the death (too many runners) at wfa 1200mtrs nice,....
I havent forgotten TTs 1200 course record at doomben though.
cheers

Bell Flight

2006 June 21 13:12:53

It was a mighty win with lots of factors against him - especially the draw.

I loved how the BBC2 caller had him "swamped" inside the 1/2F and had to eat humble pie seconds later!

The TT story defines how anyone can realise the dream of owning a superstar.

marbine

2006 June 21 12:23:10

I agree scenic, eventhough you got "unders" you syill won. I hope that the TAB did cop a hiding. They saved me money - I didn't bet in the race as I was after some big overs on a couple of the locals but as "Super" TAB can't handle 28 runners only Sportsbet were operating. Fair dinkum, they get their price assessors from Tuppaware they are so tight. It's good to see in this day & age that "Super" TAB still haven't updated their software to cope with 28 runners. Granted that it doesn't happen too often but the software shouldn't have such restrictions anyway. Well, that's my gripe. Well done Joe, Jay & TT - it was great to see. It did look like he was getting swamped near the line but he showed great courage. My missus has a bruise on her left arm after I elbowed her yelling "He's hung on!"

proffross

2006 June 21 10:18:59

I am in Oz and went to Betfair at about 7pm our time and took $7.60 for TT.
Thought I would go to sleep and see the race in the morning(lack of sleep from World Cup has been catching up with me). But even though I went to sleep at 11.15pm, I rolled over and saw the time was 12.05am and dutifully went downstairs, logged onto Betfair and was not amused that there was 9.90 available. Not wanting to double up my bet, I decided to back him for the place-$4.00 was available whilst the non-educated took $3.50 on our TAB-who was doing us all a favour.
He has Saturday's race at his mercy. We all know he is better at 1200m. His legs are the only worry I have. If he has taken no harm and recovered I can't see him being beat. Not sure whether I'd back him at the current price though after getting great overs last night.

mcgarret

2006 June 21 10:14:44

Bigdaddy

Well done old son!

I owe you a pint.

Hope you loaded up on the double.

I have never been able to "find" TT when he played at home, but we got the three points "away" last night in fine style.

Agree a superb ride by J. Ford.

Great to see the little Aussie battler saying that it was "pretty easy" to get a horse halfway across the world to win a Group race.

Especially when after the very next race we had to endure the particularly earnest (it's important to be) Godolphin racing manager, Barrington Smith-Smythe-Smith, still making excuses about not having enough time to get their horses from Newmarket down the motorway to Ascot to be competitive.

Not enough money apparently....

That will do me.

And the added bliss of watching the great Frankie riding superb tactical races (sic) made the baggy eyes this morning even more worthwhile.

Thinks....

"In a field of seven we'll just neck out the back as they walk up front and then we'll chase at the furlong".

He should dead set be riding in Sydney.

I hope Lizzy gave Joe a nice ride up the straight, back to the ranch for a stiff G and T in her Hansom Cab.

He certainly deserves it.

Aloha...McGarret

marbine

2006 June 21 08:48:45

Fair enough Patsy. I think TT is better suited on Saturday, provided he pulls up well. 1200m & back to WFA. I think Glamour Puss is a big chance too. The Irish horse, Dandy Man, may have been the hard luck story (along with Falkirk but his whole career is hard luck!) as he seemed to race on the slower side. GP will be a force on Saturday too. Interesting to line the form up if you can - the runner up, Benbaun, was beaten very easily in the HK Sprint last December...

Rex

2006 June 21 08:45:41

Patsy,

You have got to be kidding. Euro sprinters hopless are they? No you are not kidding, you are full of it.

Facts are; They are the best sprinters over here and TT beat them,

TT came all the way over here to do it;

TT had top weight;

and the most impressive point about TT win was he came from the wrong side of the track to do it. Did you watch the racing today? the inside was lengths faster, TT had to be used up to go towards the inside, although never seeing the rail and still won.

Brillant win but you still can not recognise it gracefully. I have time for a few of the pommies that post in here, Mighty Quin etc, but you are a bad loser my friend.

Cheers

2006 June 21 18:31:46

Dont know what your talking about Rex,I think it was a great win by TT had to use plenty of early speed to take up a position,still had them all hard at work a furlong out and held on after all the excursion in the early part of the race,great win,plus with all the travelling etc,huge win...but I knew if you sent a decent sprinter over it had a big chance in that race...im not a bad loser i won alot of money on TT...I really dont rate the european sprinters at the moment,not one dominates the scene,they swap placings each run,no consistency,very rarely do they get competitive against the silent witnesses and and the top USA sprinters in the world..I just dont rate them..plus the older ones that have had 300 runs tend to win the odd G1 sprint over here also,the ones that get flogged overseas,dont rate them sorry.
I think Amadeus Wolf is a class up from what TT took on Tuesday and Iffraj is still an improver,but yes I agree id still make TT favourite although im tempted by AW's price..

Rex

2006 June 21 23:30:37

Patsy,

i explain to you in simple terms what i am talking about.

Straight after the win of TT you write a post that basically says well done TT and i had £ on him so im happy, but he didnt beat much. In other words, as one other poster pointed out, he was on a hiding to nothing from you. If he wins, he beats nothing, if he loses you would be declaring Euro dominance once again.

You fail to mention he travelled all the way around the world, carted over 60kgs, drew the wrong side of the track, winning the race without getting within cooee of a running rail and after being headed.

Little lesson in racing Patsy (and if you are half as experienced as you pertain to be you would know this), it isnt always what you defeat but the way you do it that defines the victory.

I noticed a couple of pommies have posted in here after the win, they congratualated the horse and connections on a great win without feeling the need to make any comment that would take away from the victory. Look and learn.

Cheers

2006 June 22 07:38:34

Just read your post again Rex no i would never declare Euro dominance in the sprint division EVER no matter how many TT's win or lose from your parts..
Ive seen our best sprinters race in USA or HK year in year out and they get completely outpaced..its not our forte as proven once again..

Mr Lister

2006 June 22 11:49:16

Morning all,

Great run by Falkirk but given that he only ever sems to produce while fresh these days I would expect the Freedmans to save him for the race in July. I hope they do anyway because I think he can win that. I wouldn't touch him on such a quick back up if he runs on saturday. Glamourpuss is obviously in with a huge show as 1200 is her go and she proved she can back up after the Spring in Melbourne last year. As for TT, well if he pulls up good and he can back up ok then he is obviously the horse to beat. Go the Aussies.

cheers.

2006 June 22 07:34:49

Rex calm down..you're sprinters have once again been proved that they are better than ours,ive said that for the last 5 years..he did great its a big feat to travel that far and win any race let alone one at royal ascot..

However it does highlight our massive weakness in that division of racing,our horses travel all over the world picking up WFA G1's at huge meetings over distances from a mile upwards but in the sprints year after year we flop all over the world.

Anyone backing an english or irish or french 5/6f horse needs their head examined,our breeding industry doesnt cater for it and they are poor and if they are outstanding over 6/7f like a George Washington could be then they'll step him up to the mile to get a classic..
Weve always said our sprinters are poor,i say it every year and so do you so what are you on about?..
But if want to say that because TT won at ascot you can send over horses to clean up over middle distances and upwards then thats a completely different story..
Once again congrats to TT and i bow to your superior sprinters,cant say more than that can i..

2006 June 22 07:33:33

In a 28 runner field there are going to be any number of hard luck stories. Falkirk was just one of many. Im sure connections of 10 horses thought that they should have won. A field of that size will inevitably produce that sort of thing. That is why taking $3.50 on a horse that has travelled to the other side of the world, hasnt proven it can travel, is drawn on the wrong side of the track and is not racing over the distance he is best proven over is not the smartest thing that you can do. Granted you got the choccies this time but backing a horse at half the price it should be just becuase you want it to win is not often going to be a profitable exercise.

Rambo

2006 June 21 09:57:14

Well said Rex!!

TT had to do it the hard way and still managed to win.

Back to wfa over 6 furlongs on Sat. Watch out!!

Raw Instinct

2006 June 20 19:37:42

I wouldn't over look Falkirk here guys I have heard he has really thrived since being over there if his head is on right he is a fantastic horse I have had a bit on all the Australian runners as I know nothing of the english ones all in all I would be wrapped just to see any one of them win this race would be great for Australian racing again.

Racing Gal

2006 June 20 15:17:42

I attach an excerpt from the Racing Post outlining the writer opinion of the King's Stand and the Australian contingent in particular. Whilst some have said the English sprinters are average the Racing Post writer sees it in an entirely different light and does not give the 3 Australian horses any chance.

"Anyway, one horse does not make a case. Antipodean sprinting is seen in a less impressive light through the prism afforded by the Hong Kong sprinter Cape Of Good Hope. His form figures in Britain were 23441, the victory coming by only a head in last year's Golden Jubilee in a time barely faster than Group 2 horse Iffraaj in the Wokingham. Before then he was defeated by such unremarkable horses as Boogie Street, Ashdown Express and Fayr Jag.

In Australia, Cape of Good Hope was able to win the Group 1 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley in clear-cut fashion, while he was under a length behind Takeover Target in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington. Earlier, he had finished around two and a half lengths behind Glamour Puss at Flemington, while conceding 6lb to the mare.

This is hardly form that should scare Moss Vale, Reverence, Tax Free and Dandy Man - all sprinters on a firmly established upward curve. Their presence, together with that of others such as Les Arcs, Resplendent Glory and La Cucuracha really does give the home defence a sturdy look.

It is the last-named filly who provides an obvious time comparison. Her Nunthorpe Stakes victory over five furlongs at York was gained in 56.82sec - an almost identical time to that posted by Takeover Target in the Lightning Stakes at Flemington in November. Choisir recorded 56.63sec in the same race in 2003, while the track record at York of 56.16sec was set by the brilliant Dayjur.

All these times provide no strict scientific exercise due to the potential for variance in conditions, but they are included for interest because of their correspondence with the evidence provided by the form book, and expressed more succinctly than possible here via the excellent medium of Racing Post Ratings (RPR) which can be viewed on the racecard.

If only one horse had come from Australia, its performance may not have provided a basis for comparing racehorses in the two countries. But the fact that there are three makes the King's Stand a truly significant race in our understanding of the global racehorse.

It seems to me that the Australian sprinters may not be as far ahead as many suppose, if they areahead at all. For Takeover Target can shrug off a 7lb penalty, he would need to record a rating in the high 120s on the RPR scale - champion sprinter material. And that assumes that none of the promising horses beneath him on the racecard improves."

What does everyone think of the above?

The Mighty Quinn

2006 June 19 22:38:52

Had a quick look through the prices with my bookie over here.....they really are pathetic, not one price better than is being offered in the UK !! Absolutely gutless.

I love TT and he must have a great chance, I just can't back him at $4.75 in a 28, that's right, 28 runner field up the straight at Ascot, he's drawn 18, wouldn't have a clue if that's the right side of the track to be on.

Let's hope he can do the business.

Cheers,

Quinn

sethlad

2006 June 19 17:00:47

Are Sky/TVN showing the race this year?

2006 June 18 22:11:19

bigdaddy,

Thanks for that, Dandy Man is currently 11/1 in our markets.

Hope you have some luck.

Regards

Timesman

2006 June 19 20:18:19

Big Plunge on La Cucaracha overnight best price 10/1 now into 6/1

2006 June 19 20:00:42

Ive backed La Cucaracha at 10/1. That price is still available over here. If TT has comes here well, he will probably win but id rather see him first. Good price of 20/1 on offer for him to win both races. Great value in my opinion. If he wins the KS only bad luck will beat him in the GJ and his odds will shorten dramatically if he wins on Tuesday

Mr Lister

2006 June 18 12:07:22

Afternoon all,

Takeover Target is a better horse than Choisir in my opinion so if he has travelled well and acclimatised without any problems then I would be happy to take odds like that.

cheers.

2006 June 18 09:44:23

I operate out of the old dart at the moment but am as aussie as they come. La Cucharacha unbeaten fresh and 3/4 over 5f is going to be right up there. TT has a penalty for the race and would be more likely in the Golden Jubilee. Dont know what price you are getting about Dandy Man but he is around 10/1 here, has weight pull as a 3yo and race will be run to suit