1984-2009 Melbourne Cup Winners Field- Who'll win?

joshkayll
2009 December 07 17:32:47 
EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP 3.00

3200m $6,000,000 3yo & up. Group 1. HCP. Apprentices cannot claim.
Good3 track
1 31202 JEUNE, 14 D A Hayes W Harris 56.5 1994
2 530s3 DELTA BLUES, 4 K Sumii Y Iwata 56 2006
3 s4272 MAKYBE DIVA, 5 D L Freedman G Boss 55.5 2004*
4 21231 SAINTLY, 12 J B Cummings D Beadman* 55.5 1996
5 16121 VINTAGE CROP, 15 D K Weld M Kinane 55.5 1993
6 22421 AT TALAQ, 22 C Hayes M Clarke 54.5 1986
7 s9821 DORIEMUS, 13 D L Freedman D Oliver* 54.5 1995
8 s0409 EFFICIENT, 3 G Rogerson M Rodd 54.5 2007
9 22645 SUBZERO, 16 D L Freedman G Hall 54.5 1992
10 23039 TAWRIFFIC, 19 D L Freedman S Dye 54 1989
11 s6031 EMPIRE ROSE, 20 L Laxon T Allan 53.5 1988
12 48212 KINGSTON RULE, 18 J B Cummings D Beadman* 53 1990
13 s8700 VIEWED, 2 J B Cummings B Shinn 53 2008
14 80031 MEDIA PUZZLE, 6 D K Weld D Oliver* 52.5 2002
15 12281 MIGHT AND POWER, 11 J Denham J Cassidy 52.5 1997
16 12645 WHAT A NUISANCE, 23 J Meagher P Hyland 52.5 1985
17 s3331 ETHEREAL, 7 S Laxon S Seamer 52 2002
18 11127 KENSEI, 21 L J Bridge L Olsen 51.5 1987
19 30111 LET’S ELOPE. 17 J B Cummings S King 51 1991
20 32666 JEZABEEL, 10 B Jenkins C Munce 51 1998
21 93221 SHOCKING, 1 M A Kavanagh C Brown 51 2009
22 87123 BLACK KNIGHT, 24 G M Hanlon P Cook 50 1984
23 07141 ROGAN JOSH, 9 J B Cummings J Marshall 50 1999
24 60121 BREW, 8 M A //smoron//sey K McEvoy 49 2000

My tip would be Makybe Diva but I wouldn't be sure. Of course the race would be ran like it would with these horses in the field.

NOTE: Some jockeys have more than one ride lol
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26 Comments

Tontonan

2010 May 21 19:21:02

At two miles could the mares run down Might and Power ? .... yeah, I reckon they could.

Can Makybe Diva give Lets Elope 4.5kg and a beating ? ...I am not so sure. Equal weights ? The Diva. 10lbs makes a hell of a difference though.

One thing is certain though - such a race would not be a walk in the park. With the hammer down, who'll argue with the time Kingston Rule ran ? Who could run two miles faster ?

Poindexter

2010 May 21 17:45:01

Delta Blues to Kill this Field from

Kingston Rules

greyshot

2010 May 21 13:28:41

Yes I would be singing this song again:

Put on my blue suede shoes
And I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the pouring rain
W.C. Handy -- won't you look down over me
Yeah I got a first class ticket
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Then I'm walking in Memphis
Walking with my feet ten feet off of Beale
Walking in Memphis
But do I really feel the way I feel

Saw the ghost of Elvis
On Union Avenue
Followed him up to the gates of Graceland
Then I watched him walk right through
Now security they did not see him
They just hovered 'round his tomb
But there's a pretty little thing
Waiting for the King
Down in the Jungle Room

(Chorus)

They've got catfish on the table
They've got gospel in the air
And Reverend Green be glad to see you
When you haven't got a prayer
But boy you've got a prayer in Memphis

Now Muriel plays piano
Every Friday at the Hollywood
And they brought me down to see her
And they asked me if I would --
Do a little number
And I sang with all my might
And she said --
"Tell me are you a Christian child?"
And I said "Ma'am I am tonight"

(Chorus)

Put on my blue suede shoes
And I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the pouring rain
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the pouring rain

greyshot

2010 May 21 13:22:49

Delta Blues wins, no doubt in my mind.

West Coast

2010 May 20 21:54:04

How do you think Rogan Josh would have gone against all of these horses. I know it may sound like a stupid question because in terms of ability he wasn't as good as some of the those runners but he was strong and a willing worker and he could certainly run the 3200m.

I know some ppl see him as just a galloper who won races in the south west of WA, but Bart did see that he had ability and so took him in to the stable. I think he could run a good race. He was a an on-pace horse who liked to be ridden up near the front - top 5 in a field, and then let him go with what ever had left in the tank. In this field he does have 50kg which does help.

I reckon if he finished in the top 5 of this 5 or 6 in the field then he has done a good job

Anyways its just a thought. Look forward to your feedback.

tigerrish

2009 December 10 23:11:42

"Both M&P and Saintly ran very quick times in their cup wins, both in the 3.18's."

Considering M&P had to beat off a couple who pestered him for the lead and Saintly was on the fence the whole way just off the speed. Wouldnt you condsider the run of M&P to be better based on times alone and the fact he carried more weight without any cover or favours?

There doesnt seem to be a horse in this field who would take him on for the lead and as he showed in races where that was the case, he did what he liked and demolished them.

Pinkline Jones

2009 December 11 14:45:32

Delta Blues would be right up the front and pounce on them if he ran to 2006 form. Might and Power would have his job cut out.

Clackers

2009 December 11 21:28:04

Sorry Pinkline I don't agree.
Delta Blues would get pummelled by Might And Power. How far would M&P heat Maybe Better by over 3200m?
At Flemington Lets Elope, Makybe Diva and Saintly would all trounce Delta Blues as well.

Pinkline Jones

2009 December 13 17:03:06

That's just crackers, Clackers.

sg29

2009 December 12 08:12:10

"Delta Blues would get pummelled by Might And Power. How far would M&P beat Maybe Better by over 3200m?:"

Maybe Better was good enough to run 3rd in the race but still got thrashed by 4 1/2 lengths; what more do you want?

Clackers

2009 December 12 09:40:04

Exactly my point sg.
Might And Power would beat Maybe Better by the length of the straight.

glencoe

2009 December 22 10:14:46


He didn't beat Harbour Dues and Markham by the length of the straight.

worker collective farmer

2009 December 12 13:15:55

How much did M & P beat Markham by? How much better is Markham (at all?) than Maybe Better? This all isnt cut and dried

Balciano

2009 December 11 11:19:15

Yeah fair argument Tigerrish, I was basing my opinion of the chances on M & P more around the form of Doriemus, who in my opinion was a better horse in the Springs of 1995/96 than he was when he got pipped on the line by M & P in 1997. By that stage he hadn't won a race in over 12 months and was getting on in years yet still gave M&P weight on a firm track and ran him to a nose.

Given that, if Doriemus is in with his 1995 Cup form, and drops significantly in weight to when he got pipped by M & P, I'd think he'd have a great chance of beating him. Likewise Saintlys Cup win was a dominating performance, only carrying 1kg less than M&P and won comprehensively, without being touched with the whip. Doriemus was 5 lengths in arrears.

But as you said, with nothing to take M&P on in the lead, it might not matter.


Balciano

2009 December 11 13:05:15

I can see I'm outnumbered here! And by some of the more learned judges on here. Still, thats what its all about, differing opinions..

I disagree with the Doriemus run in 1996 Mr Grieves, had he gone around them like Skybeau, which would have involved Oliver going around Oscar Schindler on his immediate outside who was going nowhere, theres no way in my opinion he finishes in front of Skybeau anyway. He just wasn't travelling well enough.

Oliver had him under the whip on the point of the turn and was hard at work on him from then on, whereas Beadman hadn't touched Saintly who had idled up the the leaders. No doubt Doriemus was held up momnentarily in the straight from the 300-250 but I don't think it cost him the roughly 3 lengths between 2nd and 6th, at best he finishes 5th in front of Nothin' Leica Dane, but I can't see him beating the others home. He wasn't making up any significant ground on Skybeau in the last 100. Compare that to his run in 1997 when he loomed up with Greg Hall sitting quietly as a mouse at the 300, and you just can't compare the runs. To me the 1997 field was weaker. And even though M&P was taken on in front, don't forget Linesman, the horse who took him on from the 1000 on wards, was beaten only a length or so himself, despite costing himself ground on the home turn when he drifted 4-5 horses wide.

Again just my opinion, have been wrong before and will be wrong again...

Weight Special

2009 December 14 11:26:41

Balciano,

You are rating M&P based on 1 formline thru Doriemus which is pretty flawed.

But if doing so then blind Freddy could see Doriemus ran up to best form against M&P in the MC and ran below par against Saintly. Look at the horses that beat Doriemus that day.

Saintly's win was good but soft.

worker collective farmer

2009 December 11 13:35:58

Balciano,

As long as you present your arguments amiably no one will mind your opinion (and it's reasonable anyway)

Weight Special

2009 December 10 13:36:40

With 54.5kgs Efficient would be no hope of finishing in the top 5. That's a given. He won one of the worst MCs ever.

M&P is the best stayer in 25 years yet people doubt he could win with 52.5kgs? ROFLMAO

He won grp 1s by 5,7,10 lengths. He ran many track records.

He lead all the way with 56kgs. No horse has lead all the way for ages. With 52.5kgs I dont see how any of these horses, all which have inferior ratings could beat him.

I think people have short memories rating a B grader like Efficient up there or just too young and dumb to know he doesnt rate.

Go look at some M&P replays.

Pinkline Jones

2009 December 10 22:48:40

Speedy,

Might and Power was a great 45% elite galloper and produced some astonishing performances when wound up. You criticise what you describe as 'weak' fields yet outside Doriemus, M&P beat in your own terminology some 'walkers', cats, and second raters including:

Harbour Dues (53.5) R. Cochrane 40/1
Linesman (52.5) L. Cassidy 10/1
Arabian Story (53.5) L. Dettori 25/1
Skybeau (53) D. Dunn 16/1
Ebony Grosve (54.5) R. S. Dye 7/1
Sapio (55.5) D. Nikolic 80/1
Grandmaster (49.5) L. Beasley 33/1
Court Of Honour (55) B. Thomson 50/1
Magnet Bay (53) C. Johnson 100/1
Vialli (55) B. York 16/1
Always Aloof (53) S. King 12/1
Scrupulous (52.5) M. Carson 200/1
Yobro (52) G. Cooksley 33/1
Sunny Lane (49) B. Stanley 66/1
Marble Halls (52.5) D. Oliver 7/1
Alfa (54.5) D. Beadman 14/1
Bonsai Pipeline (50.5) G. Grylls 100/1
Crying Game (52) G. Childs 200/1
Count Chivas (57.5) D. Brereton 50/1

Balciano

2009 December 10 20:33:09

WS

As the originator of this post has stated that M&P's weight was a typo, and that he'd carry 56kgs, great horse that he was I can definitely see him getting rolled in this field.

Doriemus gave M&P 1.5kgs and ran him to a nose in 1997, whereas the same horse couldn't get near Saintly in 1996, giving him 2.5 kgs and finishing over 5 lengths in arrears. Both M&P and Saintly ran very quick times in their cup wins, both in the 3.18's.

Importantly that Spring of 96 Doriemus had bolted in with the Turnbull 2 starts earlier, and then was the only horse to make ground on the leaders when a close 4th beaten 2 lengths in the Caulfield Cup. I consider Doriemus' 1996 lead up form superior to his 1997 Spring form, where he ran 6th beaten 5 lengths in the Turnbull, followed by his 2nd in the CC, beaten out of sight by the Champ. On that rationale Saintly or a 1995 Doriemus with only 54.5 Kg's would beat him home.

M&P may well be the best horse in the field, and WFA over 2400 metres he'd be a warm fav but over 2 miles at the weights I'd back a few to beat him home.

nigeltufnel

2009 December 10 21:31:51

Nope. Not swayed one iota. Still M&P for mine. Some of you folks don't realise how good he was; and he did it all his way.



.................and phark moi, WS agrees.


It must be Christmas.



Nige ;-)

Rex

2009 December 11 01:41:06

My market is based on M&P carrying 52.5kg- didnt realise there was a typo. He would still take a power of beating even under 56.5kgs. I doubt he would be unlucky to be taken on twicebefore being a sitting shot for the rest (ala Dorieumus) as he was when he won. I hate to think what he would do if left alone in front, which is possible in this field.

Mr Grieves

2009 December 11 09:00:57

Balciano - I wouldn't be using the margin between Saintly and Doriemus in '96 as the basis for any calculation - it was one of the worst "miss the boat" rides you'll see. If Oliver goes round them like Skybeau did, instead of waiting for inside runs a la Princess Coup (and way too many other D. Oliver rides), then he runs a place at the very least. By the time he got out, Saintly was clear. Still somehow ran 6th.

ron turcotte

2009 December 10 23:23:46


Well, loyalty is a wonderful thing Nigel, but if I ever found myself thinking as WS did, that would tell me all i needed to know.

And when you say that some others don't realise how good M&P was, I'd say au contraire - there are some others who DO know how good he was: not underrating him but not overrating him either. Read Balciano's post again - Doreimus for one would offer some interesting insights on whether he found Saintly or M&P harder to handle.

nigeltufnel

2009 December 11 20:50:17

Fair points, ron; I shall do some thinking and maybe take in a replay or two.


Nige

PerfectEight

2009 December 09 22:45:38

Before I even scrolled through the page, I would've comfortably bet my left nut on Pinkline picking Delta Blues on top. I'm convinced now he must just be having a laugh at the expense of all of us.

I was a little nervous whilst scrolling, but I shouldn't have been. You really are quite funny, Pink.

For the record I am not sure who I would have on top, and I am probably the great mare's biggest fan. I can eliminate several of them though, with Delta being one of those eliminations. *Easily*.

sohosquare

2009 December 09 20:52:12

Great field, would indeed be the race that stops the nation!!!!!! Dartboard stuff really.

1. Saintly
2. At Talaq
3. Efficient
4. Kingston Rule for mine.

I was only 12 when At Talaq won but he was the first winner of the cup I picked and backed. How good was he or was he flattered by inferior opposition? My memory is vague but even at 12 I thought he was pretty good. He won the Orr first up after the cup too did he not? Did he beat Bonecrusher in an Australian Cup or was he beaten in a photo? Cant remember. Would it be fair to say he was the changing of the guard from out and out stayers winning the cup to genuine WFA horses becoming the norm.

Soho

infidel

2009 December 09 18:12:30

It would be fascinating to watch but I would not have the faintest idea who wins.

Make it a heavy track and the race becomes a lot clearer.

CountChivas

2009 December 09 22:13:50


'I would not have the faintest idea who wins.'






Makes it no different from a regular Saturday's program of races for Infidel.

Magpie magic

2009 December 09 13:22:35

Barriers don't play fair (most recent, barrier 1 and so on) but hard to give an even assessment of who should jump from where?
What barriers did they all jump from when they won?

My Top 5 -
Efficient
Might & Power
Let's Elope
Saintly
Kingston Rule

MM

* a wet track would have Subzero in my top 3.

Torpedo Punt

2009 December 11 23:33:01

On potential hard to go past Saintly.

Think he was still on the up.

The Orr win freaky.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fuk6e5hEeYI&feature=channel

Torp..

nigeltufnel

2009 December 12 08:19:14

Apparently Cold Chisel have reworked one of their classics as a tribute to one of our revered forumites. It's called "The Rising Sun just stole my objectivity away."



Nige ;-)

the urger

2009 December 08 21:29:42

Nige,gotta disagree strongly there.Lets Elope may have caused interference to many runners in the cup but she demolished them all the same.There's no way Shivas Revenge would have beaten her regardless of the circumstances,the stewards got it absolutely right IMO.

lostclarity

2009 December 09 11:15:22

She won by two-and-a-half lengths, Nige, turn it up. I didn't want to be on anything else at the top of the straight.

Clackers

2009 December 09 11:54:37

Let's Elope cost Super Impose a place for knocking him sideways on the turn but if she had mantained her line and run straight the result would not have changed. Shivas Revenge couldn't hold a candle to her. The stewards were correct.

tigerrish

2009 December 08 19:28:56

Ron,

You make some good points, all fair too. Cheers

Gattonera

2009 December 08 13:23:43

Tough one Rex - I'll try this

With what we know now
6/1 - LET’S ELOPE
8/1 - SAINTLY, VINTAGE CROP
10/1 - MAKYBE DIVA, MIGHT AND POWER
14/1 - JEZABEEL, DELTA BLUES
16/1 - ETHEREAL, EFFICIENT
20/1 - KINGSTON RULE, JEUNE
25/1 - SUBZERO, SHOCKING, DORIEMUS
50/1 - EMPIRE ROSE, AT TALAQ
100/1 - MEDIA PUZZLE, BREW, VIEWED
200/1 - ROGAN JOSH, KENSEI, WHAT A NUISANCE
250/1 - BLACK KNIGHT, TAWRIFFIC



With what we knew at the time
5/1 - LET’S ELOPE, MAKYBE DIVA
8/1 - MIGHT AND POWER
12/1 - SAINTLY, JEZABEEL, ETHEREAL
16/1 - EMPIRE ROSE, MEDIA PUZZLE
20/1 - VINTAGE CROP, KINGSTON RULE
25/1 - SUBZERO
33/1 - EFFICIENT, DELTA BLUES, SHOCKING
50/1 - JEUNE, AT TALAQ
66/1 - DORIEMUS
100/1 - BREW, ROGAN JOSH
200/1 - BLACK KNIGHT
250/1 - VIEWED
330/1 - KENSEI
500/1 - WHAT A NUISANCE, TAWRIFFIC

Rex

2009 December 10 00:42:40

Gattonera Send message to this user

Timestamp:- 8/12/2009 1:23:43 PM
Subject: Re: 1984-2009 Melbourne Cup Winners Field- Who'...

Message:
Tough one Rex - I'll try this

With what we know now
6/1 - LET’S ELOPE
8/1 - SAINTLY, VINTAGE CROP
10/1 - MAKYBE DIVA, MIGHT AND POWER
14/1 - JEZABEEL, DELTA BLUES
16/1 - ETHEREAL, EFFICIENT
20/1 - KINGSTON RULE, JEUNE
25/1 - SUBZERO, SHOCKING, DORIEMUS
50/1 - EMPIRE ROSE, AT TALAQ
100/1 - MEDIA PUZZLE, BREW, VIEWED
200/1 - ROGAN JOSH, KENSEI, WHAT A NUISANCE
250/1 - BLACK KNIGHT, TAWRIFFIC



With what we knew at the time
5/1 - LET’S ELOPE, MAKYBE DIVA
8/1 - MIGHT AND POWER
12/1 - SAINTLY, JEZABEEL, ETHEREAL
16/1 - EMPIRE ROSE, MEDIA PUZZLE
20/1 - VINTAGE CROP, KINGSTON RULE
25/1 - SUBZERO
33/1 - EFFICIENT, DELTA BLUES, SHOCKING
50/1 - JEUNE, AT TALAQ
66/1 - DORIEMUS
100/1 - BREW, ROGAN JOSH
200/1 - BLACK KNIGHT
250/1 - VIEWED
330/1 - KENSEI
500/1 - WHAT A NUISANCE, TAWRIFFIC




Interesting market there Gon. Im not to far off with what you have except Im shocked at the price of Media Puzzle (I would have to have $20 ew with you at 100/1 as a matter of principle, not because I think he wins). Here is my market.

6/1 Might and Power
8/1 Lets Elope
10/1 Saintly, Makybe Diva
12/1 Ethereal, Vintage Crop
16/1 Delta Blues, Efficient, Doriemus,
20/1 Kingston Rule, Shocking, Media Puzzle, Jezabeel
25/1 Jeune, Viewed
33/1 Subzero, Empire Rose, At Talaq, Brew,
50/1 Rogan Josh, Kensei,
66/1 Black Knight
100/1 Tawriffic, What A Nuisance

Do think that Lets Elope and M&P (on what we now know) are very well weighted

Red_Summit

2009 December 08 09:22:07

Sorry, my mistake on M&P's weight. The Millers Guide result has it listed at 52.5 which I'm guessing was prior to the penalty for the Caulfield Cup.

Still think Saintly comes out on top though.

tigerrish

2009 December 08 01:03:59

Ron,

As much as I rate your posts as some of the best, Im mystified by your comment....
"I've never understood the esteem in which M&P is held"

The horse broke course records in the CC, Doomben Cup and Cox Plate. As well as demolishing the field in the CC by 7.5l, the QE Stakes in Sydney by 10.5l in the process handing a great WFA horse like Juggler his single biggest thrashing by more than 14l along with winning the Mercedes/Bmw by 5l and the QE Stakes in Melb by 7l without getting out of first gear.

Sorry mate, but this horse rates as one of the greatest we've ever seen and the horses he left in his wake is testament to that. He was 9 from 12 at races 2000m plus and two of those defeats came in his 3yr season, he was 8 from 9 at or beyond 2000m as an older horse. There are very few in the modern day that can boast the same or similar to that.

Pinkline Jones

2009 December 08 17:19:56

Tiggsworth,

You don't have to explain to Ronnie that Might and Power was a fine horse when he was at his top albeit with not the most impressive career strike rate (45%). However, we are talking a 3200m event. There are several horses that would more than likely finished in front of M&P under these conditions, including Let's Elope and Saintly.

M&P could not possibly have beaten Let's Elope home at the weights. She was a hell of a mare and crushed her rivals in the MC.

Ronnie was merely suggesting that mathematics has not been applied to this particular weight configuration.

PINKLINE

nigeltufnel

2009 December 08 20:43:36

Wrong Pinky. Even though I backed Let's Elope right through her magnificent spring she flattened a number of her opponents in her Melbourne Cup win and should have lost the race to her stablemate.


She was a great horse indeed, but she got away with one that day. They got her 11 1/2 months later though.


Nige

Pinkline Jones

2009 December 08 21:44:44

Wrong Nigel. Let's Elope was one of the most formidable mares seen in this country. Mark my words, a better horse than Makybe Diva. She won the MC convincingly.

Pinkline Jones

2009 December 08 19:35:38

To assessing this weight configuration is my meaning.

Rex

2009 December 08 00:09:30

whats the track rating?

bkmac

2009 December 08 00:05:45

I loved Might and power but i reckon he would struggle to hold Makybe Diva out over 3200m.
Saintly was a champion and would have run a mighty race. There are a lot of good horse there, some very good ones and a handful of champions. I think you would hvae to go with the champions myself
1. Makybe Diva
2. Might and Power
3. Saintly
4. Lets Elope

Weight Special

2009 December 08 00:01:06

m&p won with 56kgs, highest for a 4yo in a long time

52.5kgs too good from kingston rule, saintly and at talaq. MD 5th.

tigerrish

2009 December 07 23:51:10

Ron,

I think WCF answered that with his next post. There werent any horses in this field that would have badgered M&P for the lead like he had to contend with on his day.

He smacked Doriemus in the CC two weeks before hand under the same weight he has in this hypothetical without any pressure from other horses

Pinkline Jones

2009 December 07 21:55:11

Delta Blues - cruises to victory in the absence of Pop Rock.

Wins from Let's Elope and Vintage Crop.

tigerrish

2009 December 07 20:06:37

Too true WCF, thats a gimme for him. He'd win by 5 carrying that weight.

On the true weights they carried, M&P to fight it out with the most convincing winner of the group, Saintly, with Kingston Rule to plug on for third based on the fast time he ran and the fast tempo that the equine freight train would set.

alcimedes

2009 December 07 19:53:06

Saintly to win from Lets Elope & Makybe Diva. Might & Power a distant 4th.

ALCIMEDES (GB)

nigeltufnel

2009 December 07 19:30:14

I agree with wcf.

With 52.5 at his top even a few of the greats in this mob wouldn't have got near Might & Power. I'd give strong consideration to reversing the top two if he had 56 or more.

1. Might & Power
2. Makybe Diva
3. Kingston Rule
4. Let's Elope


Nige

the urger

2009 December 07 19:28:29

I'd take Lets Elope,she was unstoppable at that stage in her career.

worker collective farmer

2009 December 07 18:19:49

Might and Power with 52.5?!!! He'd start odds-on

Red_Summit

2009 December 07 20:12:22

WCF, wouldn't Doriemus be a certainty to beat him at the weights given it's a 3kg turnaround from 1997?

Saintly wins for mine - but reckon Delta Blues would be the forgotten horse given his ability to sit up near the pace and unleash a turn of foot in the home straight.

worker collective farmer

2009 December 07 23:23:10

Very good observation, Red. These hypotheticals are so hard. I reckon without M & P being challenged by horse after horse down the Flemington straight he would have beaten Doreimus by a few lengths more. Also I think he kept improving after his Cup win. BUT on the other hand maybe some of these horses would similarly challenge M & P at the front and maybe Doriemus was a few lengths better when he won his Cup. Could it be that some of these winners only got 3200 in that they struggled less than their opposition or with their low weights? I couldnt imagine many Newmarkets, Doncasters or Cox Plates having winners that never had another start at the same distance.

Clackers

2009 December 08 07:24:32

Gee this is hard.
At the weights Makybe is severely disadvantaged against some great horses. She would be in the finish with Saintly for sure. They were both that good.
I reckon Might And Power and Lets Elope are the other two. When Might And Power was at his peak, nothing could get past him. Saintly and Makybe would be surging late but I reckon Lets Elope would get them all with the light weight.

Rex

2009 December 08 10:28:20

I like to do my own tissue prices on some of the big International races. Here is a challenge for those with some nous- provide a market for this field, working on the basis that the track is on the dead side of good. Ive played around with it myself, and it is a very difficult field to price up.

cheers

The Shu

2009 December 08 12:08:32

The mare
The mare
with a length to spare.

2nd Might and Power
3rd Saintly

Last Black Knight

Mr Grieves

2009 December 08 08:58:43

I'll assume the 52.5kgs allotted M & P is a mistake as he should have 56. Also will assume a strong pace with the Power in the field. Best stayers to the fore.

1. Doriemus
2. Might And Power
3. Efficient
4. Delta Blues
5. Let's Elope
6. Vintage Crop

MD

2009 December 08 13:28:15

Very tough indeed. I can't split Saintly and M&P at these weights.

Mind you, nobody's mentioned Media Puzzle yet - ordinary field he beat but did run great time and therefore must be included as a genuine stayer.

ron turcotte

2009 December 08 16:05:19


Tigerish,

I don't want to distort the thread with a long M&P debate, but my comment that I don't understand the esteem in which M&P is held should not be taken as meaning that I didn't appreciate the horse. I did, for the reasons that you gave.

But some have him on way too high a pedestal in my opinion. For example, he was put into the Hall of Fame in just the second year of its intake - ranking him in the top ten of all time. M&P was put in ahead of horses like Peter Pan, Tobin Bronze, Galilee, etc., which I cannot fathom. Redcraze is not even there at all - let alone a second year inductee - yet Redcraze achieved much more than M&P did.

M&P was the best WFA horse of his day, but he was only at the top for 12 months. He streeted a handicap field with no weight, then was brought back to the field with 56 kgs. By contrast we've had other champions who stayed at the top of the tree for multiple seasons and won handicaps under crushing weights, but they don't get the same acclaim. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that M&P was a front-runner, which people warm to.

marbine

2009 December 08 08:53:37

I'm guessing the M&P weight is a typo Josh? Every other running is carrying what they had in the cup bar him.

Tough race to pick, M&P is the only genuine pace in the race with Delta Blues sitting just off him along with Saintly. Makybe would be finishing hard with Let's Elope but can't see how they would be able to get past Saintly.

Torpedo Punt

2009 December 08 00:26:25

Saintly by some here.


Torp..

ron turcotte

2009 December 07 22:18:41


Red Summit - Doriemus gave M&P 1.5 kgs in real life when M&P nosed him out. In this theoretical race Doriemus actually meets him 0.5 kgs worse.

I've never understood the esteem in which M&P is held. Tigerrish says that with 52.5 kgs he'd have 5 lengths on this field. Hmmmm. That's a drop of 3.5 kgs on his actual weight, good enough for maybe 2 or 3 lengths or even 4 lengths if you like, but that's relative to an ageing Doriemus carrying 57.5 kgs. Not sure how that translates into having 5 lengths over some much better horses.

I've trained 12 cup winners fewer than Bart, so I'm willing to take his thoughts on board. He has consistently rated Saintly as a close second only to Galilee among his stayers. Galilee would eat anything in the modern era, and I couldn't see any of this field winning more arrogantly than Saintly did in 1996.

lostclarity

2009 December 08 05:38:33

Might and Power did not really want two miles.

I remember Galilee as freakish and Might and Power has always reminded me of Galilee ~ but his Caulfield Cup.

Absolute tragedy that Let's Elope ran into that wet spring the year after her effortless Melbourne Cup victory. She was the biggest certainty of all time that year. 9/2 was daylight robbery. She would have won the Cox Plate the following year had she been in condition. Sorry 'Super' fans.

Tommy Waterhome

2009 December 07 20:49:42

Might and power to win.

He would lead pretty easily and would hold on. Dont forget the year he won he was attacked a long way out by a decent stayer in Linesman and still had the nerve to hold off a great stayer in Doriemus.

All the best,

Tommy

mitch_006

2009 December 07 18:45:25

Makybe would win, she's the hreatest champion ever of the race. But not at the weights you've set out. She wouldn't be giving Might and Power 3kg lol

joshkayll

2009 December 07 21:23:34

Mitch, that's the weight she won with in 2004, when I think she had her best Cup win.

mitch_006

2009 December 10 22:45:10

Yer josh i agree but there was no Might and Power in the field. If there was she'd have 52kg probably

West Coast

2010 May 21 00:02:33

How would Rogan Josh go against this field. I know Rogan Josh clearly doesnt have the ability as some of the champion horses, but he was a strong and willing worker and he could run the 3200m.

I know you ppl might think this is a stupid question, but I would appreciate your comments.

Rogan Josh's only succcess's before heading east in the spring of 1999 were wins in the Pinjarra Cup and Bunbury Cup, plus a 2nd in the Group 2 C.B Cox Stakes (2400m WFA) at Ascot and then running a gallant 2nd in the Perth Cup on New Year's Day Ascot (when it was 3200m.

Bart Cummings was over in Perth for the Perth Cup that year, and agreed to take him because he believed he had potential.

Rogan Josh was best being raced on the pace in the top 5 or 6 of a race and then letting him go in the last 250m with whatever he had left in the tank.

In the Spring of 1999, besides his Melbourne Cup win, he won the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes and the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes at Weight-for-Age, plus a 4th in the Caulfield Cup.

I will admit - I liked the horse, basically I cos I got him at 250/1 when the Melbourne Cup Market first came out a few months before the race, I had $200 on him. Not only did I like him but most of WA backed him on Cup day as well. Before his Cup win, only two WA horses had won the Cup: Blue Spec 1905 and Black Knight in 1984. I'm from WA and I may seem biased but im not, just wanna know what you ppl think.

I honestly think he would run a pretty good race against this field - he may not win it, but he would do ok.

I noticed that he has 50kg in this field which is handy. I reckon if he finished top 5 or 6 then he would have done well.

Like I said you may think this all sounds crazy but I would like to see your comments regarding this. In terms of talent he had a bit but not much as some of the champs in this field, but he would definetly fun the 3200m.

I reckon he was better than Jezabeel and Brew for example, and Black Knight as well, and maybe a few more.

Cheers.

The Shu

2010 May 21 12:36:53

The bottom three plus Kensei to fill the last four places.

West Coast

2010 May 24 23:39:03

I still Rogan Josh could be at least competitive, Bart Cummings did have a good opinion of the horse, as i said before, in terms of telen, other horses in this field were better but he was strong and could run the 3200m, and with 50kg on his - you never know with the lightwieght's.

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