Shoot Out v TT v Whobe

MediaCentral
2010 September 09 22:06:26 
Not sure what the punters have been smoking but Shoot Out deserves to be clear-cut favourite in the Dato.

Whobe is a non-winner and is a huge risk 2nd-up as he always is after pulling out a big run when resuming.

TT is suspect at the mile and Moody must have inhaled some of the punters 2nd hand smoke by setting her for the Plate.

Shoot Out on the other hand is quite clearly the 2nd best WFA horse in the land. His run in the Memsie after being parked 3 and 4 wide the trip was every bit as good as the winners. He'll settle back this time and so long as Stathi can find some cover he'll run over the top of them in the straight.

The rest are just making up the numbers but Shoot Out should be approximately evens with TT at 3.75 and Whobe at 4.50 and 40+ anything else.

There are two betting options here, the obvious is backing Shoot Out straight out at the inflated odds whilst the alternative is standing him one-out in the feccy with TT and Whobe boxed to run 2nd and 3rd. It won't pay anything flash but it'll get up.

I'll be going with the former however as it is the safest bet.

He's a good-thing.

MC
PREMIER R&S ANALYST
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19 Comments

romanrodent

2010 September 12 14:40:55

Huh ?
Quote -- There are two betting options here, the obvious is backing Shoot Out straight out at the inflated odds whilst the alternative is standing him one-out in the feccy with TT and Whobe boxed to run 2nd and 3rd. It won't pay anything flash but it'll get up.

I'll be going with the former however as it is the safest bet.

He's a good-thing.


-- Now you say you had a collect on a boxed trifecta ? am I missing something ??

Smallsy

2010 September 12 14:35:55

"Had a huge collect after boxing the trio.".

Did you, MC? You need to read your initial post again.

Magpie magic

2010 September 11 21:04:35

TT loses to Whobegotyou whether on or off the pace.

Great win, great ride.

Mantank

2010 September 11 23:45:58

MC, you are a grade A pudding.

Only one horse was going to win the Dato today. And you didn't pick it.

Media Central. R & S Distinctly Average Analyst

Mandrake

2010 September 12 08:55:11

Shoot Out's sectional's have been very weak. Always a risk in this class. Over rated by some.

Magpie magic

2010 September 11 21:00:08

TT loses to Whobegotyou whether on or off the pace.

Great win, great ride.

tigerrish

2010 September 11 20:04:29

Two are ridden againt their normal pattern and lose, one is ridden exactly the same way he always has been and towels them up.

The experiment with TT was stupid at best, what on earth gave them the idea to try something different? If it aint broke....lets fix it anyway?

And if the tactics on Shoot Out were of the trainers making, then take a reality check John, he's not bomb proof. If it was the jockeys idea, then its time Stathi got his marching orders....three strikes, you're out.

Whoby, Kav and Rodd....lets just do what we always do here and come around them from out the back. Its worked just about every other time over a mile, why change now.

Why change indeed.

mrjones

2010 September 11 20:34:52

MC
PREMIER R(eally)S(ite)ANALYST

squidman

2010 September 11 15:44:57

Just wondering Media Central

Have you ever been right?

Abraham Froman

2010 September 11 12:09:41

Typhoon Tracy will race right up on the pace, kick away around the turn and streak down the straight to win by 2 at least.

I´ll stand her out in the 1st 4 with brightnight, zipping and whobe.

I have a feeling that shoot out will be left flat footed and wont be able to make up the ground to get into the placings.

Pinkline Jones

2010 September 11 10:12:24

Shoot Out has them well covered in this event. Too classy and has ample zip to overcome any adversity to the circuit.

bkmac

2010 September 11 08:29:57

Reckon Shoot Out will sit outside Typhoon Tracy and pour on the pressure early doors.
His run was easily the pick out of the 3 of them last start. This is what I would be suggesting to Katsidis if i was my great uncle Wallace. If they do this he will win.

Hands N Heels

2010 September 12 11:58:21

Despite the usual post race whining and carry-on from the throng, well done for at least putting your thoughts out there before the race MC.

Macca,

"They will all start close to the 2/1 mark - so I think the trifecta will have to pay a minimum of $12."

11.90/13.90/13.50

Love your work!

MediaCentral

2010 September 11 09:59:39

Tactics will be huge with chick chick boom.

He's probably good enough to win without the perfect run based on his last few but if he doesn't work too hard in the run he should shoot 'em down in the straight.

Right that's it, off to back my judgement.

All the best on the punt today lads.

MC
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Mr Lister

2010 September 11 10:51:56

Tactics will be huge with chick chick boom.

That is without doubt the most silly line I have ever read on this forum.

Having said that MC, I think Shoot Out will win.

McG, more of that please.

Smallsy

2010 September 11 11:55:37

Bet both the boys at around $3 and make 50%.

Wortel

2010 September 11 15:49:17

1,2,3.

You just seem to bring out my best MC. :)

Eastside Steve

2010 September 10 23:20:31

Evening all

I reckon Wortel has called the race right.

Whobe's three main weapons are fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency - and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.

(Oh, bugger I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition. Sorry).

Where was I....

Among his weaponry are such elements as...

1. He was finally ridden properly last time.

2. It's small field with a lot of trailer trash.

3. His low centre of gravity action suits the camber of the Valley.

4. He can put two lengths on Shoot Out in a flash at the school.

I also don't think Shoot Out will be suited by the Valley.

And I don't think Tracy will ever recapture her career high rating from the Myer last November. And with the rail back to normal leaders tend to find it tough to win - as evidenced by the recent history of this race.

Whobe is a genuine G1 WFA performer who has attained that level of rating six times. As I have said before, he is often set too big a task with his preferred racing style in big fields. In a smaller field he can be ridden smarter to stalk and use his wonderful sustainable sprint - as evidenced in this very race last year.

Anyway - whichever of the three you have on top - the trifecta is definitely the play in this race if you want to leverage some value.

MC is right in his assessment of the superiority of this trio over their opponents tomorrow.

They will all start close to the 2/1 mark - so I think the trifecta will have to pay a minimum of $12.

If you stand your selection from the other two both ways you'll get a minimum return out of the race of 5/1.

More chow mein please chef.

Eastside

Pinkline Jones

2010 September 11 16:32:51

A fine preview Eastside. Well selected. Mind you, Shoot Out probably could have been ridden better.

MediaCentral

2010 September 11 18:55:14

As expected the three class horses feccy'd the race.

Had a huge collect after boxing the trio.

Stathi needs to be replaced however. Three of the worst rides you'll ever see...4 wide the trip, 4 wide the trip then he decides to possy up behind the leaders when the track is favouring Chick chick boom's usual racing pattern. An absolute disgrace.

You replace the rides and you replace the result.

Pointdexter, it's clear you need to give up the punt...I gave you the first three over the line and again the Big 'C delivers.

For the record SYT is by far the best galloper in the nation and will absolutely destroy them in the plate.

MC
PREMIER R&S ANALYST

mrjones

2010 September 11 20:19:46

You're a crackpot MC, "I gave you the first three over the line and again" yep pretty tough analysis required ....

Truth is you got it pretty badly wrong. Shootout was never going to win that race. Is racing pretty dour, was only an average ride and again ( and I emphasise again) is no chance in the Cox Plate.

Up too early, 4 runs by early September = he'll be lucky to win a major this spring.

Thegoatman

2010 September 11 22:28:31

spot on assessment - shoot out has been badly prepared and slaughtered last 2 times - katsides is dreaming ! To many barrier trial wins so welcome to WFA racing katsides theres a big difference !

2 horses can win cox plate - whobe and so you think and daylight 3rd unless freak 3yo pops up again cause it is a great weight advantage and also who know what m/valley will serve up.

lostclarity

2010 September 12 11:29:43

I thought the name 'goatman' was fun.

Whobe is suspect over 2000 metres. He was presented with ther race yesterday: slow pace, probably dead track by then, and the mile. He smoked his pipe out the back and did his Caulfield Guineas run all over again.

They won't let him do any of that on Cox Plate day. He was ready to go last time and he ran into a better one. More Joyous will be cuddled till then. I wouldn't be potting her.

Shootout may be a notch short, but it looked like he wanted further yesterday. I suppose I'll reserve judgement on him, but I have big doubts.

CountChivas

2010 September 12 16:04:22


'Whobe is suspect over 2000 metres.'




Yeah, just like Purple can't run a mile and a half. LOL
Whobe has only started at 2000m and beyond, five times.
Of those five starts he has a Gr1 win in the 2000m Yalumba Stakes as well as a 2040m win in the Gr2 AAMI Vase, he also has a Gr1 second placing in the 2500m VRC Derby.
So how do you gauge his 2000m form as being 'suspect'?

You have no clue whatsoever!



Pinkline Jones

2010 September 12 21:15:08

Once again, you're wrong Chivas. And you
have no business with the old 'havent a clue' line, considering you were the poster responsible for what many forumites believe to be the dumbest tip in forum history ie tipping Viewed to win a CF Orr first up.

What LC is saying is that he feels Whobe looks a bit shaky over 2000m in a Cox Plate context. He's two from four over 2000m but you need to consider that he beat Buffett and Orca in one of those wins and Heart of Dreams in the other. HOD has since proven he doesn't have the right stuff to win a pressure G1 over 2000m. Whobe was also found wanting in a Cox Plate already so there's nothing crazy in what LC has written.

Apologise and move forward.

PINKLINE JONES CBE

Mandrake

2010 September 12 23:44:20

FlatLine says; 'Apologise and move forward'...

..hmmm and move forward... I wonder where I've heard that ad nauseam? ah yes, Ms Gillard used it, over and over again. Some original material there eh Pink!

CountChivas

2010 September 12 22:34:30


'What LC is saying is that he feels Whobe looks a bit shaky over 2000m in a Cox Plate context.'





Wrong, Mr Scoutmaster, what LostaClue said is there for all to see 'Whobe is suspect over 2000 metres.'
In other words, a horse with a Gr1 and a Gr2 win at that distance and a Gr1 placing at 2500m is SUSPECT at 2000m ie: has trouble running it out.
And now, it seems you are of the same opinion. LOL

I know you see 'haven't a clue' as a personal invitation to weigh-in to the discussion and give definition to the phrase, but LostaClue has been doing just fine on his own for quite some time in that regard.
When he wants to turn his solo act into a duo, I'm sure you'll be first cab off the rank.

BTW how's that great Irish trainer Aiden O'Brian (sic) going these days, you sure know your racing. LOL






muirfield

2010 September 12 22:28:06

Great post Pinky.

MD

2010 September 12 10:34:30

goatman - you don't rate More Joyous a chance? There's 3 chances imo

Khaptingly

2010 September 11 19:49:50

I am fairly safe punting on racehorses in Australia, when Pinkline and MediaClown, come here and look like they know something.

You absolute fools, keep up your work.

sg29

2010 September 11 19:33:52

"I gave you the first three over the line and again the Big 'C delivers"

Wow - you picked the first 3 home in no particular order (along with nearly everyone in Australasia).

burnsey

2010 September 10 22:58:56

caulfield - agree shootout was a good run late but lets have a look at another good run that day, in the last race similar run 1400m, precedence weaved through the traffic made a stack of ground to run second to jungle ruler,now this horse has no first up or second up form,but it was an eye opener on a slow track, i would suggest bart has trained this horse a bit different this time around, maybe that explains why he doesn't want one horse to take the prize off another,(so you think), oh by the way jungle ruler ran a faster time than so you think over the 1400m at caulfield that day so where would precedence have finished had it run in that race,i'm not talking it up to win but i will be happy to take $16.00

dead heat

2010 September 10 21:37:02

Shoot out will smash em all

balbeel

2010 September 10 20:57:47

SHOOT OUT WILL NOT WIN AT THE VALLEY!!!!

He simply takes too much time to get balanced and unleash that devastating sprint. will be laying him tomorrow for as much as i can as ive already done in the cox plate.

much more suited around fleminton. should be aimed solely at the mel cup

I repeat... Shoot out will not handle the valley

Magpie magic

2010 September 10 19:29:50

There doesn't seem to be any threat to Typhoon Tracy leading tomorrow and I'd expect her to take up the lead and fight out the finish with Whobegotyou who will prob be 1 out 1 back waiting to pounce, and will get up.
Shoot out will run a very good third from what I'd expect to be from the back of pack in prep for the longer races.

Whobegotyou
Typhoon Tracy
Shoot Out

Margins - 1l x 1/2l

My bet - wbgy & tt quinella @ quite a few units.

MM

Mandrake

2010 September 10 21:11:04

Shoot Out=Risk...

Todman

2010 September 11 05:29:15

I reckon Shoot Out will be a knob at the vallee.

Caulfield seems to be a track that horses tend not to handle although since the camber was improved, it is not as big a hoodoo track.

Shoot Out's biggest prob will be settling off what will probably be a rather moderate pace as TT does not need to go harf until the 800.

Shoot Out will be pressing SYT for fave in Cox after today.

Boxcar

2010 September 10 23:21:56

While not many of Lloyd Williams decisions regarding horse placement make sense to me, the placement of Rundle here is another strange one ... Either they have a big opinion of this one and consider him a real, player or they'll send him to the lead for a true run race for Zipping ...

While the race again looks devoid of pace, again suiting Typhoon Tracy, the fact that she struggled to run out the 1400 last time means I can't have her. As mentioned earlier, with Shoot Out a query at the track and the short straight, and while Whoby goes great at the valley, he doesnt go great 2nd up and seems to have forgotten how to win.

With these queries on the top 3, I'm going to take the punt that the Williams camp reckon Rundle goes pretty good and can run top 3 here. Maybe a saver on Zipping?

Maybe the race will be not so much a guide to who can win the Cox Plate, but a guide to who cannot?

CountChivas

2010 September 10 21:42:50


Agree with MC.
This is Shoot Out's race.
I'll be backing him.


Poindexter

2010 September 10 17:06:14

The thing that amazes me is

Everyone thinks that there are only 3 horses in the Race..

Did other Trainers and owners pay up for 1 Prize.. That of 4th

One of them.. if not 2 of them.. will miss the Place.. Match races always throw up the Unexpected

muirfield

2010 September 10 19:20:36

Shoot Out is the lay of the Spring so far.

Word is he won't handle the track. And even if he does he will be outsprinted by Whobe & TT who LOVE the track.

1) Whobe
2) TT
3) Shoot Out

MediaCentral

2010 September 10 19:06:32

Poindexter, I don't knew what ewe ave been smokin but I'll give up the punt if somethin other than the favoured trio get up.

It's WFA and under handicap conditions the rest would be receiving 6 and 7 kegs from the class runners and they'd still get smoked.

AS most of you know I like to be diplomatic on this forum and listen to what others have to say however you've completely lost the plot this time.

The more I watch Shoot Outs runs this time in the more convince I am that the best horse will simply win. The Valley is the one query but most good horses (the champ Lonhro the possible exception) handle it and I see no reason why Shoot Out won't.

I'm right once again and I suggest you listen to the class runner of this forum and back him straight out, he'll be winning.

MC
PREMIER R&S ANALYST

He'll

Hands N Heels

2010 September 10 23:18:15

"AS most of you know I like to be diplomatic on this forum and listen to what others have to say....."

and then...

I'm right once again and I suggest you listen to the class runner of this forum...."

Comedy gold MC

bkmac

2010 September 10 15:25:21

Keen Shoot Out
Speck Rundle

infidel

2010 September 10 08:51:01

Shoot Out will win the Dato: MC will be right for the first time in his headline-grabbing posts: o happy day.

Eastside Steve

2010 September 09 23:56:24

Great post MC

Don't necessarily agree with the outcome, but that is more of what is needed round these parts.

Only one other horse can win the race.

I don't want to make a Rodd for my own back by going the early crow - so I'll respond after more thought.

Eastside

Mr Grieves

2010 September 10 10:22:25

This is Whobe's last chance to win a race this spring (unless Kav wakes up and sets him for the mile handicaps) and I think he will. There is no pace whatsoever outside of TT, and Shoot Out might have to sit in the death, which I very much doubt will suit him. Whobe will get the last shot, and we know he loves the Valley.

Wortel

2010 September 10 14:02:50

I reckon Shoot Out will be getting back now.

He can't play around sitting out wide and I don't think he can get the pace here with Typhoon Tracy.

He's just not fresh enough here and the short straight adds to his problems.

In the Memsie you will notice how much So You Think gets up to bug TT. She really didn't like having him on her hammer.

Whobe can puts lengths on in a flash, he's a great push button horse and I think they really want him up the pace as in the past he has lost too many races getting back in the field. I reckon he can accelerate from the pace now and that makes him very dangerous.

Typhoon Tracy defending a late charge from Whobe and getting done by a nose with Shoot Out flying home 3rd.

Whobegotyou
Typhoon Tracy
Shoot Out

mrjones

2010 September 10 15:07:24

Mantank, I agree with you 100% - If Shoot Out is looking for the 2,000m in early September he has virtually zero chance in a Cox Plate!

Weight Special

2010 September 10 11:59:03

Slow/heavy should suit Shoot Out more.

TT and WBGY are better on good tracks.

mrjones

2010 September 10 09:52:22

Tempo will probably dictate the outcome here. If TT gets a soft lead and Shoot Out and Whooby are worse than midfield she will be very very hard to run down.

The way Shoot Out went around the turn at Caulfield, I'd have serious reservations about him at MV!

Mantank

2010 September 10 08:45:05

I'm warming to Whobegotyou in the Feehan. Think what you may of his cat like tendancy's, but there's no denying his Valley record.

How Shoot Out will handle the Valley is unknown, but regardless, I think he is looking for the 2000m already. The mile might be a bit short, but it's the only realistic opportunity he has of running around under race conditions before Cox Plate day.

lonhrofan

2010 September 09 23:17:57

agree agree and agree

Whobe has a great valley record, TT looks off the pace, only concern is shoot out fourth up, but should in the red for me

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