Zarita - Australian Cup

2009 March 13 21:40:43

I coulda won the Mc. stakes in me thongs
Shoulda finished in the $$$ Cox plate with someone else up
woulda won the St George by 6 with someone else up
woulda won the other day with someone else up.

2009 March 13 10:08:41

seventhell

http://www.uulyrics.com/music/pseudo-echo/song-listening/

2009 March 13 15:58:15

I'll take your last post as you conceding.

2009 March 11 16:41:44

sevenshortofapicnic

I bet Knuckles is rapt to have you in his corner.

He's a lucky guy.

2009 March 12 14:33:07

I'm silly but not silly enough to let a jockey turn me off backing one and I do talk thru my pocket in case you missed it. Only a $5 punter but thanks for your concern anyway.

Wouldn't matter what race he's in, the horse would go better for someone else. If he was mine, I'd certainly switch jocks for someone a little cooler and kinder.

If you are a fraction of the horseman you think you are, you know that some horses just run better under certain jocks. Look how well Zavite goes for Trelawiller.

Knuckles has already faltered a few times on the big occasions you may recall.

He is lucky Gai's getting soft in her old age or he'd have been sacked after the Cox Plate massacre. Luckily for your favourite jock, he keeps getting the opportunities on the top mounts and he may yet prove you right, god help us all.

He is not the best jockey in Australia there are many better than your mate Rash Trelawiller who don't get the opportunities.

Sevenshortofapicnic get off the keyboard and back to the stable. Stop procrastinating and walk those neddies. When you've finished doing that, put the boxing mits back on.

2009 March 12 15:56:05

YOU SAY - "If you are a fraction of the horseman you think you are, you know that some horses just run better under certain jocks"

What's wrong with Theseo's form or the way Theseo travels under Nash Rawiller?

I agree with your above comment, but Theseo is going just fine.

You made the comment that Theseo hasn't forgotten Rawiller's ride in the Cox Plate which wrecked his mouth as you put it and somehow psychologically scarred the horse.

I am sorry mate but since then he has won a Mackinnon Stakes, a St George by 4 lengths and been beaten a lip in the Australian Cup.
That is the only thing I am taking expcetion to, you bad-mouthing Rawiller when there is nothing wrong with the horses mouth or the way Rawiller is riding the horse.

I totally agree that horses run better for certain jocks or when you make a jockey switch. Unfortunately you have chose the wrong horse/jockey to use as an example.

2009 March 12 08:33:20

Dumb call mate.

Cop it on the chin.

Someone on this forum made the same call after the Cox Plate, saying the horse wouldn't forget Nash riding him in the Cox Plate. . . he then won the Mackinnon LOL!

2009 March 11 11:37:50

Thought Theseo looked a bit 'overcooked' as he stepped onto the track.

Knuckles Rawiller inflicted pain to Theseo's gob in October and I don't think the horse has forgotten.
Also believe that the horse doesn't have to lead.
I'm a fan of the horse and I think he'd race better for a new jock.

Be a good effort if his form holds for the rest of this prep.

2009 March 11 12:57:28

So Theseo forgot Knuckles Rawiller two starts ago but remembered last start?

LOL!

2009 March 12 08:53:31

You are the one that has a chip on your shoulder when it comes to N.Rawiller.

When you realise that the bloke is probably the best jockey in the country your bank balance will be all the richer.

2009 March 08 18:05:29

Cant believe the price Theseo got in to.

I ended having a little on Niconero only because he got out to a ridiculous price for a last start group one winner. Didn't think he could win but I have been wrong many times before.

2009 March 08 15:07:40

Too true seventh, she was desperately unlucky. Had she got the run she would have certainly finished in the first three and possibly went close to winning.

2009 March 06 12:53:19

Fair call bkmac.

He won the Gr2 Sandown Classic.

That would be one group race more than the rest of the MC field have won between them since November.

2009 March 06 11:14:23

Tiger, Did you state that all 3 horses that run a place in the cox plate have gone on to win group 1's since?
Didn't Zipping run second in the cox plate?
Care to enlighten the forum as to which group 1 he won?
Ever?
Add that to the comment about the 3 melb cup ones doing nothing since and you can see why my friend that you are a mastermind.

2009 March 05 23:40:09

Yeah Theseo doesn't have to lead he can box seat like he did in the Mackinnon.
I like your point that none of the melb cup horses have done anything since Tiger
C'est La Guerre hasn't started since
Bauer hasn't started since
Viewed one start for a 4th over 1400m at WFA
Good point.
Excellent research.
Viewed hasn't won at WFA, won't be long.
If trained for this race he would give it an almighty shake.

Horizons

2009 March 06 10:55:33

How is Zarita a plodder but Master O'Reilly is not?

Mystifying.

badge4au

2009 March 05 18:14:22

I think MOR is great ew value. $11 a win at the moment and $3.10 a place.

Nice odds for a second favourite. ( unitab )

2009 March 05 14:59:49

Nice work bkmac, you really don't endure yourself with your self righteous "Im right and the rest are fools" attitude.

Try actually reading my original post regarding these two before you continue on your meaningless crusade of once again assuming that you know my opinions of the actually race itself.

One foot note mate, you claimed that the Cox Plate was a farce but then use the Melbourne Cup as a support for MOR. Did you watch the same Cup as me? Now that was a farce and primed for the backmarkers.

As for Viewed, he has never been placed at WFA level in his life. His only wins at 2000m have been in a Listed and a C4 race. His best effort at WFA was in the Doomben Cup last year, beaten by Sarrera, an 8 year old. And the placings went to Rampant Lion and Like it is, hardly quality there.

As for the Cox Plate, all three placegetters have gone on to win group one races afterward, none of the MC placegetters have done anything. Theseo competed in the Cox Plate too and he's going ok.

MOR has no better chance in this race than Zarita and if you read my original respone to this particular subject you will find that Zarita has in fact a better record over the last 12 months than MOR. And thats a fact.

2009 March 05 12:32:48

Theseo will not get the same bludge he did in the St George.

This is Group 1 racing and he is a dominant $2.25 favourite. He is the one they are all out to beat and they won’t do that by handing up an easy lead.

Maldivian my have gotten away with it in the Cox plate but he wasn’t $2.25 and his form was questionable leading in to the race.

I can see Pre Eminence applying some pressure and a horse like Scenic Shot could throw a spanner in the works.

2009 March 05 13:47:56

Theseo wins the St George by dictating the pace and all of a sudden he has to get away with a soft lead to win the Australian Cup.

This horse does not have to lead to win. The only reason he led in the St George was because there were no other leaders in the race.

If Pre Eminence or something else wants to cut sick in front then good luck to them, Theseo can smoke the pipe behind them just off the pace. That was where he settled when he won the Epsom and the Mackinnon.

2009 March 05 17:11:26

I'm not saying Theseo has to lead to win.

I'm saying his last run could have been flattered by the fact he was left to dominate the race on a supposed leader biased track.

He may still win and win well but the $2.25 is false odds in my opinion. Better than $3 and he might be a worthwhile gamble.

Blutigeroo is the value.

Horizons

2009 March 05 12:50:41

bkmac,

What do you guys mean by digging a hole?

It's tiggerish's opinion. So how is he digging himself a hole?

2009 March 05 12:29:42

I find it amusing that the 2 are even being compared. And yes i do think it is worth noting he ran 4th at flemingotn over 3200m.

Viewed wouldn't be given a chance in this Tiger? Why not? He has placed in events from 2000m down 10 times. 6 of those were wins.

First up over 1400m he flashes home to run 4th behind Tuesday Joy. It certainly didn't stop Makybe Diva winning a Melb Cup and then an Aust Cup did it? Since when was running 2nd in a turnbull and 4th in a melb cup considered fair?

You just kepp digging the whole deeper. Because the Caulfield Cup was 18 months a go we will just forget it ever happened. But Zarita won 2 restricted group 1's in Adelaide of all places LOL
What a joke, how can you compare a first and a fourth in Australia greatest 2 handicaps with 2 wins in restricted company in adelaide and keep credability.

Better get that shovel and dig your way further in here.

2009 March 05 10:16:04

You consider running 4th in a 3200m race as some kind of guide to this? Viewed won that race and if he started in this he would have no hope of winning. And MOR's win in the Caulfield Cup was 18 months ago and is irrelevant.

Unless someone goes out of their way to crack on the speed here, Theseo will do just as he did last start and that gives horses like MOR very little chance of winning.

Their is very little between Zarita and MOR, to suggest he is a better propsition because of a couple of fair runs last spring but by also down playing her runs is foolish.

Makes little difference anyhow, its hard to see anyone beating the favourite

2009 March 05 09:15:50

I think Blutigeroo represents excellent value @ $26!

Colin Little has been very patient with him following a disastrous spring in 2007 and all indications are he's got him ticking over just beautifully. His last run was very encouraging on and apparent leaders biased track over a distance way short of his best. I expect him to produce somewhere near his peak on Saturday.

I was a little disappointed when Annenkov didn’t accept but hopefully enough pressure will be applied up front to allow him to finish off.

Give him due consideration in your race analysis.

There are only four legitimate winning chances in my opinion. Those being Theseo (no value), Master O’Reilly (looks primed), Road To Rock (the improver) and the above mentioned Blutigeroo.

2009 March 05 09:15:14

Zarita wins an oaks against her own age and sex
Wins a derby against her own age
Both in Adelaide
4th in a farciacal cox plate
Master oreilly wins a Caulfield Cup concincingly
Runs 4th in a melbourne cup
2nd in a turnbull

She runs third him 4th in St George after he is 3 deep closer then he'd want and she has lovely run. Once you dig a little deeper it is a touch clearer then mud Tiger.
This makes sense though and that my friend means it probably won't eventuate.

To the person who suggested Alamosa is a couple of lengths of group 1
his last 4 starts are
Wins the Group 1 Toorak by 1.8 lengths
beaten 4 lenghts in the group 1 cox plate
Beaten a head (2nd) in the group 1 cf orr (another bound or 2 wins)
beaten half length (3rd)in the group 1 Futurity after sitting 3 deep softening the leaders up from the 740m mark.
Clearly a couple of lengths of group 1.

2009 March 05 00:57:09

Tiger are you forgetting Master oreilly's 4th in the melbourne cup? I would of thought that worth a mention since it was at Flemington. Making his 2 best runs of late at Flemington. Was never a chance in Cox Plate because of tempo. He is clearly a better horse then her. She goes all right when there is no pace in races. Run at an even tempo he beats her every time.
Even with the seemingly lack of genuine speed in this I will back him to beat her home and think he is a good each way bet.

2009 March 05 01:45:37

MOR's course form reads 2-1-1-0 and his 2nd in the turnbull was 2nd up with 4kgs more than the winner.

Zarita's big flop in the Turnbull worries me and she's never won an open age group 1 and never looked like winning. Her last win was 3yo grp 1 in Adel.

2009 March 05 09:29:00

Zarita is as good a chance as any of filling a minor hole behind Theseo because of the way the race is going to be run, imo.

I suspect it's basically going to be a 600m sprint home and that won't suit Master O'Reilly. He's unders.

2009 March 05 11:08:07

600m straight suits MOR just fine. Fast pace means he can win, slow pace means a place.

Zarita is a one paced plodder.

2009 March 08 13:40:46

Author: Weight Special
Timestamp:- 5/3/2009 11:08:07 AM
Subject: Re: Zarita - Australian Cup

Message:

Zarita is a one paced plodder.

-------------------------------------------

Zarita, climbing over heels at the 400, gets beaten 1.5 lengths.

Master O'Reilly, under the stick 800 from home to make ground. Plods over the line.

Who's the plodder?

Speedy is.

Mr Lister

2009 March 09 08:30:31

Just saw a replay of the race. Zarita was momentarily held up for a run at the top of the straight but got out in plenty of time. The winner and Zagreb went straight past her. She ran very well but does not have the finishing ping to win races like this whether she is held up or not. Would not have won the race no matter what happened and certainly wasn't desperately unlucky. Was a poor Australian Cup quality wise and that is the reason she got so close.

2009 March 09 20:05:22

Spot on Lister. She did well to win those Group 1 races in Adelaide last year, but she's simply not up to WFA class.

The Matriarch on the last day of the VRC carnival is her go during spring.

2009 March 10 09:16:55

Zagreb was impressive.

Niconero? Hayes has him firing. Not bad from a dud trainer hey 7th picnic boy.

2009 March 10 11:11:49

Too true Weight Special!

You will notice though that the initial post pointed to the fact he was struggling in his placement of Growl.

Same goes for Largo Lad in the Newmarket, shocking placement.

Would have bolted in the Open Sprint at Stony Creek OR Echuca on Cup Day.

Thanks god for Niconero.

Oh and by the way Weight Special?

What happened to Master O'Reilly finishing in front of Zarita?

You said she was a plodder and he would beat her home without a worry in the world.

You also said he had better form for the past 12 months than Zarita?

What happened?

He was under the stick at the 800 and Zarita is a plodder?

2009 March 11 08:43:52

Speedy/Weight Special,

Why do you go missing when you make a call that's wrong, on this occasion, Zarita and MOR, yet when someone else makes an error of judgement, albeit an opinion, you are all over them like a rash?

mrjones

2009 March 11 11:05:17

Seventh,

Don't expect to see Dead Weight on this thread again. He makes states his theories as a matter of fact and then when proven incorrect doesn't have the goolies to cop it on the chin. But as you point out is very quick to jump on anyone else. I still haven't seen him tip anything prior to a race - but is big on telling us how "easy" a race or day was after the fact... Very Khrapperish....

Mr Lister

2009 March 10 12:34:16

MOR needs the 2400m of the BMW and in a weak year for WFA stayers he would be some show to run well.

2009 March 05 11:47:09

Where's this race being run Weight Special, Victoria Park?

2009 March 05 11:28:38

"Zarita is a one paced plodder"

And Master O'Reilly isn't?

LOL.

jonesy09

2009 March 04 19:30:23

The 3yo is an e/w certainty

Burnsy08

2009 March 04 17:16:10

She has drawn well and did beat Theseo in the Cox Plate so might be worth a nibble at the 16s and 4s on offer

Pinkline Jones

2009 March 04 16:36:25

The only thing that will stop Theseo winning is if the jock comes down with late night kebab poisoning and Frank Thring heavily disguised as Quentin is the replacement.

lostclarity

2009 March 04 20:10:53

She's a length or two off group class but it's a weak race.

2009 March 04 21:37:51

Lost Clarity,

How do you propose Zarita is a few lengths of Group Class (1,2 & 3) when she is a Group 1 winner?

Weight Special,

Good call with Zarita bozo. She has better form than Master O'Reilly over the past 12 months.

Try again Speedy. Back to your times. LOL

lostclarity

2009 March 05 05:01:06

Seventh, Few things vary as much as the standard of Group races. In top company, she is, like Alamosa, a couple off them.

Pinkline Jones

2009 March 04 16:35:52

The only thing that will stop Theseo winning is if the jock comes down with late night kebab poisoning and Frank Thring heavily disguised as Quentin is the replacement.

2009 March 04 16:28:44

What has Zarita done in the last twelve months?.....lol

She's done a heck of alot more than MOR.

Won the SA Oaks and Derby, 2nd in the Makybe Diva and close up 4th in the Cox Plate finishing well in front of MOR. All this in the last 12 months.

MOR's only close up effort was in the Turnbull and he's finished behind Zarita in the Orr and St George this time in.

You question Zarita's credentials, but then suggest a horse who's been going worse than her and hasn't won for over a year and a half. Clear as mud

infidel

2009 March 04 14:19:41

It is a thin race. If Theseo has a bad hair day, nothing would surprise me. But if Theseo matches the ratings of any of its last 6 runs, it will win.

2009 March 04 13:54:31

What has Zarita done in the past 12 mths?

MOR e/w looks a better bet.