Good tip, BB.

Not now Rex. I am almost certain that if she wins, BC will be on a plane back to Australia as soon as possible.

If she loses however, it may be a different story.

As for Sepoy, we all know he has superior form around a bend, and in Australia his straight track performances were below his best, so I don't give him much chance in the July Cup (although I would love to see him run well).

Tuesday June 19 2012
Ascot 15:05
King's Stand Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1)
£350000.00 added, 3yo plus, 5f, Class 1
Winner £198485 2nd £75250 3rd £37660 4th £18760 5th £9415 6th £4725
23 runners
Going: Straight: Good; Round: Good to Soft-Good in plcs.
Surface: Turf

No.   Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey
1 (20) 80/221-4 Amour Propre 18 6 9-4 H Candy Dane O'Neill 112
2 (8) 29228-1 Bated Breath 24 5 9-4 R Charlton J Doyle 118
3 (23) 13239-6 Dinkum Diamond (IRE) 69 4 9-4 H Candy D Sweeney 106
4 (14) 323-103 Hamish McGonagall 16 7 9-4 T D Easterby D Allan 110
5 (16) 452-213 Joy And Fun (NZ) 80 9 9-4 p D Cruz B Doyle
6 (7) 14-7611 Little Bridge (NZ) 51 6 9-4 t C S Shum Zac Purton
7 (18) 18020-8 Masamah (IRE) 24 6 9-4 p1 K A Ryan J P Spencer 113
8 (3) 0-57553 Medicean Man 10 6 9-4 p J Gask L Nolen 103
9 (12) 124420 Monsieur Joe (IRE) 24 5 9-4 R M H Cowell William Buick 110
10 (13) 17-4907 Prohibit 16 7 9-4 p R M H Cowell Jim Crowley 114
11 (19) 1246-83 Secret Asset (IRE) 30 7 9-4 h Jane Chapple-Hyam G Baker 112
12 (22) 039-222 Sole Power 24 5 9-4 E Lynam J P Murtagh 117
13 (6) 3-22432 Spirit Quartz (IRE) 18 4 9-4 R M H Cowell L Dettori 106
14 (21) 00095-1 Stone Of Folca 17 4 9-4 h J R Best L Morris 100
15 (9) 10011-7 Tangerine Trees 24 7 9-4 v B Smart T Eaves 115
16 (11) 410-800 Margot Did (IRE) 45 4 9-1 v1 M L W Bell Hayley Turner 114
17 (10) 4156-55 Night Carnation 45 4 9-1 A M Balding J Fortune 105
18 (5) 67011-1 Ortensia (AUS) 80 7 9-1 b P Messara Craig A Williams
19 (15) 1552-51 Wizz Kid (IRE) 16 4 9-1 Robert Collet G Mosse
20 (2) 110-9 Bapak Chinta (USA) 24 3 8-12 K A Ryan P Makin 109
21 (4) 5111-02 Stepper Point 16 3 8-12 W R Muir Martin Dwyer 109
22 (17) 313-263 Caledonia Lady 33 3 8-9 J Hughes P Hanagan 102
23 (1) 76161-2 Ponty Acclaim (IRE) 33 3 8-9 T D Easterby T E Durcan 105
Last Winner
Year Horse Trainer Jockey SP Age Wt Draw
2011 Prohibit R M H Cowell Jim Crowley 7/1 6 9-4 14

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Ortensia, 5/1 Bated Breath, 5/1 Wizz Kid, 7/1 Sole Power, 8/1 Little Bridge, 12/1 Joy And Fun, 12/1 Prohibit, 16/1 Margot Did, 20/1 Amour Propre, 20/1 Tangerine Trees, 25/1 Masamah, 25/1 Spirit Quartz, 25/1 Stone Of Folca, 33/1 Dinkum Diamond, 33/1 Hamish McGonagall, 33/1 Medicean Man, 33/1 Monsieur Joe, 33/1 Secret Asset, 33/1 Night Carnation, 33/1 Bapak Chinta, 33/1 Stepper Point, 33/1 Caledonia Lady, 33/1 Ponty Acclaim

FORMWATCH
Amour Propre 15-8fav (9-3) Tracked leaders in 3rd, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, 4th of 7, 4 1/2l behind Excelette (8-5) at Haydock 5f Listed stks 3yo (1) gf.
Bated Breath 2-1fav (9-4) Tracked going well, challenged 2f out, led over 1f out, quickened entering final furlong, held on, won at Haydock 5f Grp 2 (1) fm in May beating Sole Power (9-4) by nk, 12 ran.
Dinkum Diamond (IRE) 7-4fav (9-10) Fly leapt start, raced wide in touch, ridden halfway, edged left and weakened 1f out, last of 6, 10l behind Jonny Mudball (9-1) at Nottingham 5f cond Stakes (3) gs in Apr.
Hamish McGonagall 12-1 (9-2) 3rd of 11, 2 1/2l behind Wizz Kid (8-12) at Chantilly(FR) 5f Grp 2 (1) gs.
Joy And Fun (NZ) 6-1 (9-0) 3rd of 15, 1 1/2l behind Ortensia (8-9) at Meydan(UAE) 5f Grp 1 (1) gd in Mar.
Little Bridge (NZ) (8-11) won at Sha Tin(HK) 6f stk (1) in Apr beating Leading City (8-11) by 3/4l, 7 ran.
Masamah (IRE) 7-1 (9-4) Prominent, ridden and every chance 2f out, hung left and beaten from over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong, 8th of 12, 9l behind Bated Breath (9-4) at Haydock 5f Grp 2 (1) fm in May.
Medicean Man 25-1 (9-5) Chased leading pair, ridden to challenge when head high over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, 3rd of 10, 1l behind Mirza (9-6) at Newmarket 6f hcp 105 (2) gs.
Monsieur Joe (IRE) 20-1 (9-4) Mid-division, ridden over 2f out, no impression over 1f out, soon weakened, eased, 11th of 12, 20l behind Bated Breath (9-4) at Haydock 5f Grp 2 (1) fm in May.
Prohibit 5-1 (9-2) 7th of 11, 2 1/2l behind Wizz Kid (8-12) at Chantilly(FR) 5f Grp 2 (1) gs.
Secret Asset (IRE) (8-13) 3rd of 9, 2 3/4l behind Ato (8-13) at Kranji(SNG) 6f Grp 1 in May.
Sole Power 3-1 (9-4) Not much room soon after start, held up, headway and waiting for room over 2f out, switched left over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, ran on, closing near finish, 2nd of 12, nk behind Bated Breath (9-4) at Haydock 5f Grp 2 (1) fm in May.
Spirit Quartz (IRE) 2-1 (9-3) Slowly into stride, in touch in 5th, ridden over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on towards finish, 2nd of 7, nk behind Excelette (8-5) at Haydock 5f Listed stks 3yo (1) gf.
Stone Of Folca 50-1 (8-12) Prominent, led 2f out, ridden and edged left final furlong, stayed on under pressure, won at Epsom Downs 5f hcp (2) gf beating Desert Law (9-2) by 1/2l, 20 ran.
Tangerine Trees 12-1 (9-8) Led, ridden 2f out, headed 1f out, weakened inside final furlong, 7th of 12, 7l behind Bated Breath (9-4) at Haydock 5f Grp 2 (1) fm in May.
Margot Did (IRE) 6-1 (8-11) Always in rear, eased over 1f out, last of 16, 19l behind Mayson (9-0) at Newmarket 5f Grp 3 (1) gs in May.
Night Carnation 9-1 (8-11) In rear, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on towards finish, 5th of 16, 2 1/4l behind Mayson (9-0) at Newmarket 5f Grp 3 (1) gs in May.
Ortensia (AUS) 6-1 (8-9) won at Meydan(UAE) 5f Grp 1 (1) gd in Mar beating Sole Power (9-0) by 1 1/4l, 15 ran.
Wizz Kid (IRE) 3-1fav (8-12) won at Chantilly(FR) 5f Grp 2 (1) gs beating Stepper Point (8-9) by 1 3/4l, 11 ran.
Bapak Chinta (USA) 20-1 (8-10) Held up, ridden over 2f out, no impression, 9th of 12, 11l behind Bated Breath (9-4) at Haydock 5f Grp 2 (1) fm in May.
Stepper Point 14-1 (8-9) 2nd of 11, 1 3/4l behind Wizz Kid (8-12) at Chantilly(FR) 5f Grp 2 (1) gs.
Caledonia Lady 5-1 (9-2) Tracked leaders, raced freely, switched right and ridden 2f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, kept on, 3rd of 6, 3l behind Pearl Secret (9-2) at York 5f con stks (2) gd in May.
Ponty Acclaim (IRE) 14-1 (9-4) Tracked leaders, challenged over 2f out, soon led, ridden and headed 1f out, kept on, not pace of winner, 2nd of 6, 1 1/2l behind Pearl Secret (9-2) at York 5f con stks (2) gd in May.

BB

What are the chances of Sepoy being retired without another run?


Firming by the day I suspect.

He is no chance of beating BC, so I have no idea why they would want to take her on in July Cup.

So Sepoy is going straight to the July Cup, a race that is more suited to horses who can get 1400m.

And he'll bypass the King Stand, a distance that he's run really well at. Some of his best wins have come over 1000-1100, he beat Buffering in the Caulfield Sprint over 1100m. If Buffering was lining up in the race he'd be the outright favourite.

He has no hope of getting within 5 lengths of Black Caviar in the JC and if he raced in the KS he'd go close to winning.

What logical reasoning does the stable have for choosing the race they have for him?

I'll be backing a local in this if I bet. I don't rate Ortensia. Pity Foxwedge isn't going- I don't rate him either.

Although having a quick look at the pommies- sheesh. Sole Power, the third favourite, has won 2 races out of 21 starts. I won't look at the ones below him- they must be shockers.

Ortensia in the Old Dart

Paul Messara's video diary:
http://www.youtube.com/user/ArrowfieldTC

I just hope those slow UK horses don't get in the way of the Aussie speedsters.

King's Stand against Ortensia and pommies or July Cup against BC- which way to go? Hmmm, ah- very difficult decision.

DUMBOS!

Old hand..

Great post, described Lister perfectly in that last part.

Macca Sepoy has won all his efforts down Australian flat straights, yes...but he never looked comfortable for mine, always seemed to be out of his comfort zone, the fact he is with Godolfin and the uphill straight at Ascot is enough to doubt him imo, he's a talent no doubt, but they nearly always perform below their Australian form when Godolfin train em.

I'd like to see him have a run to assess his form before Ascot, hopefully he has a start somewhere between now and then, dunno, they do things different over there, and I'd love to see Barzelona ride him actually, reckon he will suit the horse well.

There's a good point Nige, if he's riding Ortensia then it does sway things a little in her favour.

Never took him into account to be honest.

Foxcat trailed very ordinary at Rosehill imo, Ortensia is the best aussie chance, Messara has her on a lovely long sparingly raced fresh n fit prep, clear running in the right part of the track and she bolts up the Ascot hill to win for mine.

Ascot can be a nightmare if you draw the wrong side and are in a pack that discovers their side is the wrong side.

Infy,

HL beat them both in the Lightning by less than 2 lengths.

And had HL been right in the WR he would have won, but the margin would've been similar.

Irrespective of the weight relief FW got, he's not that far behind HL, particularly over 1000m.

On exposed form, there's not a single runner who I could see running Hay List to a couple of lengths in the Kings. The exception being Foxwedge and perhaps Ortensia, but she'd need a hot speed up front and thats not likely to happen over there.

Nash reported that Foxwedge worked in outstanding fashion prior to his departure. I don't think there's much between him and Ortensia at their best.

Foxwedge is on a similar level to Buffering, only marginally lower than Hay List.

Put Hay List was in the King Stand he'd be odds on.

If he's travelled well, then Foxwedge is the horse to beat.

Sepoy not a straight tracker IMO
Ortensia is.

Infi,

They have Helmet and Sepoy entered in the Diamond Jubilee & July Cup, and only Sepoy in the Kings Stand.
You would envisage somehow has told them about Black Caviar and the perils of taking her on. I would guess that the Kings Stand is the perfect race for Sepoy. But hard to say if he's fit, ready and able for it. 14/1 is a nice gamble to find out...think of his best efforts down the straight at Flemington vs. the locals in the Kings Stand Stakes, and those odds are tempting.

Maybe Rex knows more as he is over there and often gets quality stable info?

BB