Underwood Stakes - SYT

MediaCentral
2010 September 12 11:18:44 
Morning punters,

On the back of selecting the boxed trifecta in the Dato I'm going to keep the ball rolling with another feature winner in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield next Saturday.

The Bart Cummings trained So You Think is a class galloper of the highest order. The lightly raced son of High Chaparral has come back in fine fettle this campaign evidenced by his strong win in the Memsie when defeating the aforementioned trio from yesterdays feature mile.

The form line looks imposing and his rivals are going to have their work cut out getting to him in the run to the wire.

He'll take out the Underwood on his way to the Plate where he looks assured of defending his WFA championship crown.

I firmly believe that he is the next true Champion to grace the Australian turf and he will further enhance this claim when he demolishes his rivals on Saturday.

MC
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16 Comments

tigerrish

2010 September 20 19:36:33

Agree with your thoughts on Metal Bender HnH, he was entitled to throw it in coming around the corner last weekend.

He raced like a horse looking for more ground and stayed on really well.

He's a tough horse and the MC looks like a race he could certainly do well in on current early form. I thought his run was pretty good all things considered.

Pinkline Jones

2010 September 18 23:22:07

So You Think. Wow, what an outstanding prospect. Pretty hard to tip against him this Spring.

CountChivas

2010 September 19 08:21:00


Two years ago, almost to the day, the same praises and accolades were being heaped on Weekend Hussler who'd just won three straight, including the Underwood Stakes.
He hasn't won a race since!


Settle down.

Weight Special

2010 September 20 07:00:14

WH hadn't won a 2000m race let alone a CP before.

To win like that 2nd up over 1800m after a long spell is something special.

WH was a sprinter/miler so the comparison is null and void.

Wortel

2010 September 19 13:30:53

Well said Chivas.

His only 2000m form was with a postage stamp on his back so I'm not convinced just yet.

He looks like a freak but given the horse that ran 2nd yesterday isn't a big WFA superstar it's throwing up more questions for me.

I called the race wrong. Ollie was sitting back on HoD as he didn't have the speed to lead, ended up getting boxed in and was gone in the straight.

Metal Bender was brave but might not be up to it. Typical Doomben Cup winner not up to Melbourne grade??? Who knows?

Hands N Heels

2010 September 20 15:02:01

"Metal Bender was brave but might not be up to it. Typical Doomben Cup winner not up to Melbourne grade??? Who knows?"

Let's not be too harsh, he's not just a typical Doomben Cup winner, he's a dual Guineas winner who also ran 2nd in QE to a seasoned WFA horse in PR @ 3YO coming back from a Derby (included in the beaten brigade were PRED PRICE, ROAD TO ROCK and WBGY) before having a year off and then winning a Doomben Cup. Then wins a Warwick Stks 1st up. I think that puts him in a somewhat better grade than what you're describing. He was also going left handed first time on Saturday, plenty take a run to come good on that score, even SO YOU THINK as you may recall. I think MB will go a lot better in the Turnbull assuming that's his next run.

Mr Lister

2010 September 19 13:06:18

As we know know Count, Weekend Hussler could not stay a yard past the 1800 of the Underwood and has had several injury issued to contend with.
So You Think is already a Cox Plate winner.
You will be eating those words by the end of the Spring.

MediaCentral

2010 September 19 12:11:27

Chivas I think you'll find that Old McDonald had a farm and on that farm he had a sprinter. He elected to run that sprinter over the most gruelling 12 furlong race we have in this country.

Besides the fact that SYT isn't one-dimensional, the master places him to perfection and won't make the same mistake.

So You Think is a dead set Champion.

MC
#1 Member SYT Fan Club

tigerrish

2010 September 16 17:21:47

muirs,

I think those of us who have critisised Stathi for his ride understand Shoot Out doesnt have that turn of foot to mix it in a sit and sprint affair.

He had the chance to pinch a break on them and decided not to. Then uses the old line of "bigger fish to fry" to explain why he pulled the horse back to the fence. If that's the case, then why did the trainer bother to start his prep so early.

That comment in itself flys in the face of what Wallace said regarding the horse being unbeatable for most of the spring. Did Wallace think the horse was just going to amble out and win most races without having to work a little?....I seriously doubt it, he knew from the outset what the horse would have to do and he had the right one to do it. So Stathi thinks he needs to cuddle the horse and give him a soft run and give up the chance of winning, yet the trainer said early on in the piece that the horse was up to a long campaign.

Most of the excuses Stathi has used for the last two rides have all but contradicted everything the trainer has stated from the get go. He's lucky he's still on after Saturday, if he makes a blunder in the Turnbull Id say he'll be punted.

MediaCentral

2010 September 18 14:33:03

Like I said, So You Think far too good.

He was always going to win this race. I can't believe bookies offered even money on him.

Yes the race hasn't yet been run but by the time this post goes up you've seen the results, you've read the news and you've seen with your own eyes. I felt this result a week before it even happened.

You've heard it right here, SYT will go undefeated this campaign. There isn't a horse in the country and in my opinion, quite possibly the world, that could defeat this thing given he has average luck in running.

Northerly has always been my favourite and the best WFA horse I have seen in my lifetime but I firmly believe there has been a changing of the guard.

So You Think is an absolute champion and by the time his career is finished I firmly believe he will be recognised as the greatest horse to have raced in Australia in the past 20 or 30 years.

MC
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Mantank

2010 September 18 17:56:19

Despite the fact you are a goose, your assessment of So You Think may turn out to be correct.

It is quite feasible that he will be a dual Cox Plate winner after just 10 starts. Wouldn't that be something.

MD

2010 September 18 18:14:30

It certainly will be Mantank - I just hope he keeps going for several more years as he has still got all his tackle hasn't he.

Mantank

2010 September 18 18:55:57

Yes he does MD. And doesn't he look the raging bull?

I'm hoping the one thing in his favour is that old Dato (and Bart for that fact) is aged to say the least, and leaving a star legacy is more important than a stud deal. He hardly needs the cash.

I hope he becomes an absolute legend. Been on him every start after his debut, love the horse.





Arthur

2010 September 16 11:38:41

Metal Bender may be the one to knock of SYT in the Underwood - agree that this looks the race where SYT could be vulnerable.

As for Shoot Out, i think he's going great - but agree that the jockey is not going so great. As a 4yo though i'm surpised they're not aiming at the cups only ... leave the plate until next year.

Wortel

2010 September 16 16:24:47

Heart Of Dreams is a great horse.

He's been consistant in WFA class and has Ollie as his new spring rider.

I expected him to run top 4 in the Makybe Diva but I was very impressed that he was in in for such a long way. With the straight a little shorter at Caulfield he should get the job done. 3rd up he looks primed to take out back to back Underwoods.

Metal Bender the challanger from Sydney is very classy and should sprint well, good acceleration will get him past the hype 4yo here.

Shocking just doesn't have any form at Caulfield, it seems like he's much more suited to Flemington as he can get back in his races.

Heart Of Dreams
Metal Bender
So You Think

Blackpill

2010 September 15 21:16:55

Tontonan - spot on.

infidel

2010 September 15 12:49:21

Why do jockeys let their pace be determined by others? Why couldn't Shoot Out's rider decide before the pace, "right, I know what tempo I want: I will set that tempo regardless of what the opposition does".

In a big field that may sometimes be difficult, but in the Dato it would have been easy. He could have positioned Shoot Out 4 wide the entire race if necessary; it doesn't matter at MV.

muirfield

2010 September 15 21:17:54

These critiques of Stathi seem to be forgetting one important factor - he doesn't have a turn of foot. So he was never going to beat the likes of Whobe & TT over 1600 at the Valley. When you add into the mix he had never raced at the track and worked terribly there, as I said he was the lay of the Spring.

tigerrish

2010 September 14 21:18:18

ima jeel,

Im with Tononan, I dont agree either.

I for one follow the interviews and I can tell you Stathi said after the Memsie that he had the horse too close, he should be saved for one last burst from the back of the field.....thats his go. He admitted he got that one wrong.

Now this week he's saying that Shoot Out has bigger targets and he didnt want to give him a gutbuster. Thats fair enough, except.....

They all but walked the first 1000m, the perfect chance to sit back for one last burst at them. Particularly knowing TT wasnt going to race on the speed. Why wouldnt he go back and sit off Whoby or TT knowing both horses would cart him into the race? They were the only two horses who, realistically he had to beat. He claims the horse was overracing early and had no choice but to go forward. Pulling was he?....if he was he would have bowled to the front on the speed that was nothing more than a walk. And having his head down on his chest early on doesnt suggest he was pulling

He also said he had the chance to go outside Precedence at the 600m when they quickened, the horse looked like he wanted to go, the jockey didnt. If you watch the reply you can see Stathi hold him back. Why? Slow early tempo, hit the pedal at the 600m....how is that going to be a gutbuster.

Did the stewards quiz him about giving the horse every chance to win regarding his decision to restrain Shoot Out and pull him back behind Precedence at the 600m? Surely he knew Whoby and TT would be coming around them all, yet he took an option that was shown in earlier races to be a bad one.

I still think the horse has what it takes to win anyone of the big races. But I dont think Stathi does.

Watching Shoot Out throw his head about when he was restained when the outside run was there suggests the horse knows what he's doing when the tempo gets upped. If Stathi continues to force him to do what whats not natural for him could cost him a big race.

He should have let the horse go, after all he has three weeks until his next run to get over it.

Weight Special

2010 September 15 17:54:04

SO was beaten over 2000m before in ordinary time and won the derby in ordinary time and got beaten too far in the Feehan to rate him highly.

I'm writing him off for the CP. Maybe the cups are his go but he's got 55kgs so he would need to be a very good stayer to win either one.

Better value elsewhere at this stage - looking at the 30/1 to 80/1 shots.



Zappy Hero

2010 September 13 22:28:07

I think Metal Bender can win this weekend, no doubt. Quinella bet might be the way to go with SYT

Poindexter

2010 September 13 15:15:41

A gimme Trifecta...

I reckon the Luck was all onside for Ewe

I was hoping that Precedence would have Nutted one of them for 3rd..

Needs further me Finks

SYT.. the bubble for 1 or 3 of these Group 1 horses will burst soon...

Me Finx.. Shot At, sorry typo.. Shoot Out is just about Finished .. I reckon another 1 or 2 will come up short very soon

The Mares, Valdemoro, Faint Perfume, Daraina look suspect at moving into Open Handicp races

squidman

2010 September 13 00:39:36

MC please explain

This is taken directly from your post. How did you collect with this?

There are two betting options here, the obvious is backing Shoot Out straight out at the inflated odds whilst the alternative is standing him one-out in the feccy with TT and Whobe boxed to run 2nd and 3rd. It won't pay anything flash but it'll get up

Weight Special

2010 September 13 13:59:50

"There are two betting options here, the obvious is backing Shoot Out straight out at the inflated odds whilst the alternative is standing him one-out in the feccy with TT and Whobe boxed to run 2nd and 3rd. It won't pay anything flash but it'll get up.

I'll be going with the former however as it is the safest bet."

Now you've jinxed SYT.


tigerrish

2010 September 12 22:28:02

Good post Tontonan,

I heard an interview with Stathi on radiotab a couple of weeks ago where he said he rode the horse wrongly in the Memsie. He himself said the horse should have been ridden back and saved for one big burst.

With the right run he may or may not have beaten Whoby, but with Katsidis riding him like he did....again, he was no hope.

Tontonan

2010 September 12 20:11:13

The box trifecta cost $6. It paid $12.

Congratulations. You sort of tipped an even money multi.

Besides, what you really did was declare Shoot Out a good thing regardless of the fact that the horse was ridden by 58kg of baggage with Katsidis written on the side.

imaj eel

2010 September 14 10:32:28



Tontonan, and others... This thread and others..

Why do you keep bagging Stathis rides??? I dislike him as a jockey, but fairdinkum ,, you blokes just dont follow the interviews, the form and the racing programmes of some stables!!!
They declared the Coxplate for this horse ages ago, and got a fearful bagging for it.
They further declared that he was only 75/80% wound up when he won early over shorter distances, They went even further and said he wont be pushed to hard as its still a long way to the plate, and hes not yet fully fit, and then you go and back him and give the jockey a rubbishing because he rides to instructions, and leaves someting in the tank.

This horse is trained by a gentleman who does not suffer fools , or bad rides, gladly, and if your assessment of Katsidis is correct, then the trainer is wrong.
But,, if you acknowledge that the trainer knows his onions, then you all owe Stathi an apology.

Tontonan

2010 September 14 17:09:57

I can't agree.

I have no idea whether Stathi is using his initiative or following the instructions of the trainer. But I do know that the worst possible place to be at MV in a race devoid of pace is parked on the fence behind two reluctant leaders, especially on that sort of track where the rails were slow and there is a fast lane down the middle of the straight.

Why ? Because the leaders will tire and fall back in your lap and you will have nowhere to go because the run on horses will be coming around you. The best you can do is sweat on the leader rolling off the rail and hope your horse can rail like a greyhound ... which Shoot Out does not.

Moonee Valley is a momentum track - and only horses (with the exception of Kingston Town) that can maintain their momentum through that uphill bend can straighten up balanced and finish the race off. That's why Whobe runs so well there. He runs that bend well and can produce his trademark (though limited) burst on the short straight because he is so well balanced coming through the bend.

Saving ground is NOT a higher priority than maintaining your momentum at the Valley. Reference Jack Hill's ride on Crabs or Damien Oliver's ride on Spacecraft - they never got near the rail, didn't need to be, didn't want to be. Stathi put his horse in the wrong spot - again.

Katsidis said earlier in week that he would not be going forward on Shoot Out "I wont be doing that again. He is looking for more ground and all he wants to do is relax." he said. Apparently he changed his mind.

It's the business end of the year in Melbourne. The smart stables and the top jocks aren't mucking about. Anyone out of their depth is quickly exposed. Go ahead and back him to win the Cox. It's your money. But I would prefer to bet a horse ridden by someone who knows how to ride the track.

Eastside Steve

2010 September 15 23:59:31

Tonto said

"Moonee Valley is a momentum track - and only horses (with the exception of Kingston Town) that can maintain their momentum through that uphill bend can straighten up balanced and finish the race off."

It is impossible to fully understand this until you watch your first race from the Tabaret balcony.

That would be the best place for in-run betting on the planet.

Eastside

Fat Back Pocket

2010 September 12 19:39:03

I reckon this could just about be their only hope of beating him again this spring.

1400m to 1800m off a three-week gap.

Certainly not saying he can't win, but reckon there is enough there to give his rivals hope.

Heaven help em if they can't beat him this week.

dead heat

2010 September 12 18:51:55

Heart of dreams so I think.

mrjones

2010 September 12 16:37:12

Yep, and I'm sure you are also tipping a Collingwood v Geelong Prelim final. You sure are a genius...

karnage

2010 September 12 20:24:37

Metal Bender has an extra run under his belt and has been running in races run at a much more competitive early tempo. He is going to be a lot tougher to hold off over 1800m than a first up WBGY was over 1400m.

I am not going to say he will won 6 days out from the race but his presence alone will be enough to ensure that you should atleast do some form for the race rather than shoot from the hip.

muirfield

2010 September 12 15:01:07

.......... at even money.

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