Doncaster/Oaks

Balciano
2013 April 15 14:13:07 
I know Pre-Post betting on big races is fraught with danger (see ATC Derby) but with 5 days to the Doncaster and ATC Oaks, both Shoot Out and Longport appeal as top value.

Shoot Out is showing $14.00 and $4.30, while Pierro is Even Money. So you can have a lash at the $14.00 e/w and if he runs a place, you're still getting a better return than if Pierro wins. Shoot Out loves Randwick, (George Main, Randwick Guineas, Derby, 2nd Doncaster) is only giving Pierro 1 kg and his last run in the George Ryder, beaten just on a length while looking for clear galloping room in the straight, in a sit-sprint affair was full of merit. Plus he handles all sorts of going down to a genuine Slow, and 3rd up should be primed to peak.

Longport at $9.00, beat her Oaks rivals home easily in the Storm Queen, and is another who can get through all conditions. Take out Norzita and she wins both te Fillies Group 1's in Sydney this season (Finght and Storm Queen Stakes.) She was strong to the line at Rosehill, and while Habibi's run was very good, don't forget the last 2 NZ Derby winners to race over here in the Autumn. Both Jimmy Choux and Silent Achiever won the NZ Derby and performed very well first up in Sydney in the Guineas, but then didn't back up in the Derby, and were perhaps over the top.

What do others like in the 2 features?
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16 Comments

quezacotl

2013 April 21 14:39:37

Macca a Redoutes choice winning the Melbourne cup..really..???

No chance imo.

Mr Lister

2013 April 21 20:04:26

Agree quez.

maccamax

2013 April 23 07:59:18

Quez... I recall everyone laughing at a Star Kingdom winning the Derby too but No one told Shy High.

doosra

2013 April 21 13:59:16


How long since we've seen the AJC (sorry - ATC) Derby and Oaks both won in such completely devastating fashion in the same year?



maccamax

2013 April 21 11:43:14

Pity the rain reduced the chances of so many .
That's Racing and the Oaks winner might add the Melbourne Cup to that before the year ends . What a win .
Pierro was gallant in defeat and Shoot Out faced an impossible task on that track.

oldtimer

2013 April 19 14:56:35

I think Pierro is the best horse in the race - but the best doesn't always win - the track and weight could interfere. His last run was terrific - so long as it didnt affect him. But he is short

Other than that Streama is a big chance - but the 18 gate is a concern.

Shoot Out is a major danger

I am a big fan of Red Tracer - but the 1600 could be a worry - but the wet track is a huge plus.

The roughie is Liteinthe nite - good draw, good jockey, likes the distance and conditions

Thnx

bkmac

2013 April 19 11:28:52

Summerbliss was given absolutley none by williams last start
Shes good enough to run a hole here @ $13

Mr Lister

2013 April 19 16:00:56

I think you're just clueless in general Keith.

I also thought you might be over at your "wheres that post" thread explaining your quez like bulldust.

Alas you did your usual. The same as every other time you have made a dill of yourself. Hid under your bed until the smoke has lifted.

Ethiopia is first up after a torrid time in the Melbourne Cup, has only won 1 race in its career and is a stayer. He won't win the Doncaster. If he does, you and quez can fight over the crown although quez will just claim that you copied him and stole his tip. Good luck with it. I'll be back here to congratulate you after the race if I'm wrong.

bkmac

2013 April 19 11:27:44

What isnt there to like about Ethiopia lister ? Was beaten 0.2 by pierro in the cox plate
Meets him 9.5 better here
has won at randwick
has been very well backed in the last month
2000x50
5000x31
5000x21
its set for this and beats pierro home at the weights all day long
absolutley outstanding bet at the odds
im not sure why you would knock it
i am clueless as to how quez came up with this horse but .......

kidlat

2013 April 19 08:49:48

Appearance and Summerbliss

another_tipsta

2013 April 18 12:32:35

Doncaster(/Oaks) "exclude" list? - may be even tougher to stick the neck out for that one than to make win/place suggestions however it could make all the difference in trifecta and f4 dividends. Any suggestions and why?

Timesman

2013 April 18 09:42:37

Redback,

I am on Appearance as well (at $13).

Appearance broke 1.35 for her Myer win and gets a nice weight drop her. Only question in my mind is do we get one more run from her. I say with mares, while they are racing well, keep them going, but, this is my big query on her ie the fifth run in a preparation. At the odds, I am happy to take a punt to find out.

I think Pierro is well under the odds at $2.10. A silly price (again hello metho drinkers), should be about 3/1 given the weight. I also agree he fell in last time.

Not saying Pierro can't win, but you may get close to if not $3 on day, ala overreach.

Happy trails is worth a ticket on Emirates run.

Hope you enjoy the race as it is one of my favourites.

Love the day, the crowd, the smell of leather and horses, can't get enough of it.

Regards

Timesman

Hands N Heels

2013 April 18 13:24:00

Must say with no Laser Hawk, I'm warming to APPEARANCE myself. The QOTT time was better than the Ryder though the latter ran home quicker unsurprisingly. Winning form is good form and well weighted horses in winning form win Doncasters, except when its genuinely wet which is looking unlikely.

In any case, am reasonably convinced of two things for this year's edition:

1. Historically speaking, PIERRO has just a touch too much weight for a 3YO in this of all races - let him prove me wrong. Regardless he's unders.
2. It's a girl for the 3rd year running.

I doubt RED TRACER over a Randwick mile and STREAMA is showing signs but not sure she's fully recaptured yet though Mr Doncaster himself will no doubt bring out the best in her.

NORZITA looks the big threat, that she got mighty close to Appearance in the Coolmore, meets her on similar terms here and we know she's strong enough to get further are all big ticks, even if coming through the Vinery is not. C. Williams a major plus but is she good enough to match the feat of Emancipation, Magic Flute or Sunline?

HAPPY TRAILS couldn't win with 52 last year and I'm not sure he has improved enough to win with 4 more this year.

Bit of useless trivia - we have the last 3 Flight Stakes winners lining up here.

quezacotl

2013 April 17 20:55:00

Doncaster..Ethiopia from Sacred Falls
Oaks..Royal Descent from Longport
Cup..Maluckyday from Tremec

Redback

2013 April 17 15:58:44

Thought Pierro fell in last time, and is worse off at the weights and mile? Not sure there's much more left in the tank. Would like to see him win, but i'll be on Appearance and Happy Trails at the odds. The Randwick mile should suit both, just need a bit of pace on.

quezacotl

2013 April 17 01:04:37

Doncaster..Ethiopia from Sacred Falls
Oaks..kazanluk from Longport
Cup..Maluckyday from Tremec

Mr Lister

2013 April 17 12:44:54

If Ethiopia wins the Doncaster quez, I will dip my lid to you and declare you the greatest.

It has no hope of winning.

The other one you mentioned is a sneaky little chance. Agree with you on that.

I think Pierro just wins.

Too short for me to back. Might take a quaddie and go wide in the Donny. If he gets beaten there will be plenty of value in multiples.

Zappy Hero

2013 April 17 22:33:54

I think Lister is right re Ethiopia, but would love to see him wrong. Not for anything personal ,just because this horse won me a minor fortune (in my terms!) last year. on that basis, for me, he goes in multiples with Danleigh.

Pierro to win, with Danleigh, Appearance, RT, Norzita, Ethiopia (fingers crossed) and Lightinthenite filling out the minors!

Royal Descent or Summerbliss for the Oaks! good luck all

geelong63

2013 April 17 11:04:27

Wow - great piece of trackwork by Pierro yesterday. Some suggestion that he goes to stud immediately should he win. Nash just needs to ensure he doesn't get shuffled back too far in the run and presents him at the 300m. Don't like the price but he's the winner for mine.

doosra

2013 April 16 14:45:14


Oops sorry correction - Fontelina's grand dam Electrique won the Flight / Ranvet. His mum a Timber Country mare only raced once.

doosra

2013 April 16 14:29:45


Haven't looked closely at the Oaks field yet but have been a fan of Longport throughout her career... great to see her getting back into her best form and will no doubt have something on her.

The Doncaster shapes as a truly intriguing race. With the track currently rated slow and more rain forecast there's several horses with lighter weights which I think are flying under the radar.

Lamasery, Secret Admirer, Streama and Alma's Fury all have at least place claims and I'll be including them in my trifecta and probably putting a few dollars on each way.

Pierro deserves his place as favorite and no doubt he'll perform well because he knows no other way - but I don't think he's any sure thing to win here.

If the track goes to Heavy 9/10 I reckon Fontelina and Happy Trails can run big races at massive odds.

Fontelina has flopped two tries at the mile but there have been some excuses. His mum won a Flight Stakes and a Ranvet and interestingly he has never actually raced here at his home track but always trials well. Just got a sneaky suspicion he could go much better than his odds suggest but would want a genuinely soft track.

My other big question is on Glass Harmonium. Which one of him will turn up for a start :) But I love this feisty grey horse - he is a good weight carrier of class and stamina - if he puts his best hoof forward he can lead them over the rise and be right there fighting out the finish.

There are so many other genuine chances, this is a very strong Doncaster field IMO. It will be an awesome race and I can't wait.

If Pierro can beat this bunch it will be some achievement. Not that I will consider him less than a freak if he doesn't win. He's a great horse win or lose.

balbeel

2013 April 15 17:13:17

Habibi x Danleigh x kelinni

Hands N Heels

2013 April 16 12:49:21

...or a filly ;)

Hands N Heels

2013 April 15 16:22:58

Can't buy in this time I'm afraid Balciano, Cox Plate taught me a lesson about SHOOT OUT and unless Waller is training him differently this time in, I don't see how he can win. Sure he likes Randwick but so do a few others.....STREAMA, SECRET ADMIRER just to name 2.

I think PIERRO is beatable at the weights and I get the distinct feeling the Donny is going to a mare this year. Most of those in the picture are getting not insignificant weight off SO too and the Doncaster is so often won by the weight horse. I get your value play over the Fav though.

kizzyaggots

2013 April 19 08:10:04

I like Dear Demi and Streama.

Cheers Kizzy.

Barossa Boy

2013 April 19 18:54:59

Terrific races the pair.

I fancy Habibi (despite the Jimmy Choux and Secret Admirer failures 2nd up in Oz)
She raced as if she needed the hit out at Rosehill and would be much better suited to the 2400m at Randwick.

Habibi - Streama =$58.90 fixed + a little on the all-up win/each-way on the tote.

God bless.

BB

CountChivas

2013 April 19 13:49:03



If Pierro becomes a 'sitting duck' with 100m to run, then the only galloper I can see running him down is Shoot Out.

The way he chased down Monton two starts back in the Chipping Norton to grab him right on the line was amazing.

Shoot Out is the one to beat, for mine.

I like the two Kiwi fillies in the Oaks, Habibi to win from More Than Sacred.

OliverFan

2013 April 19 18:27:32

The Doncaster is not as cut and dried as the slipper, overreach was bombproof at 1200m but the same can not be said for Pierro at the mile if he is ridden the same way as in the Caulfield Guineas. If he can get some cover in the first 1000m then Nash can expose him at the 600 and he will run away to win as he likes, if not then its a lottery. The oaks is between 3 DD, RD and Habibi but I havnt decided on my top pick as yet.

maccamax

2013 April 19 23:19:37

If Ethiopia wins the Doncaster I will turn it up forever.
Cox plate Pierro was at the end of a tough campaign so don't use that as any yardstick.
First up in a Doncaster would be a million to one. It has won one race.
With 56.5 Pierro won the Champaigne Stks 1600m in 1.35 off a fast early pace as a 2 year old. Can't you see what he will do to this very ordinary lot with 2 runs under his belt and probably at his best distance.
This is a Grand Final.
Old Shoot Out couldn't win a big Randwick Mile in younger days with less weight so why would he find this year any easier.

big_philou

2013 April 19 19:45:29

@ Lister.

LOL.

Gold.

Hands N Heels

2013 April 20 10:00:31

Heavy 8 and deteriorating. The rain has been incessant although in spurts. I went for a run 2 hrs ago and it was like stepping into a show fully clothed - instant saturation!

imaj eel

2013 April 20 14:08:15



Hands,, mate,, incessant and spurts are about as opposite as my dictionary knows how to explain,, anyway,, back to the thread

More than sacred to win from Habibi,

Pierro,even tho its 57ks it is only 4kg over the limit, and hedoes go well in the heavy,,from a strong finishing Sacred Falls and Shootout..


Devil of a day

Balciano

2013 April 20 16:37:05

Imaj eel well done think you got as close as anyone mate, could not have had Sacred Falls on what he's shown here even on the Heavy 10.

Thought Shoot Out was massive in finishing 6th, bombed the start, settled near last and was widest on top of the rise but they don't pay out for good efforts.

Royal Descent in a different league in the Oaks, the perils of betting on a Monday.

Good luck to anyone who had a win.

Mr Lister

2013 April 20 18:10:52

Good work by those that found Sacred Falls. Quez mentioned him and I agreed he was a sneaky chance but didn't back him in any fashion. Had him in the quaddie. He was the value as I suggested could happen if Pierro got nutted. He was brave in defeat.

Ethiopia. I think it's still trying to find its way back to the stalls. Well done Keithy. Clueless as ever.

The Oaks was a nice result.

iglesia

2013 April 21 09:01:56

Did anyone else think Norzita was a little unlucky in that she was obliged to race very wide, outside Monton, around the turns thanks to the baffling course plotted by Christian Reith - six or seven horses away from the rails, when, as Sacred Falls and Pierro appeared to show, there was nothing wrong with the rails?

geelong63

2013 April 19 17:30:34

If Randwick gets its share of the predicted 50mm tonight the track could end up nasty.

Todman

2013 April 19 15:17:04

Track better than slow

Pierro
Shoot Out
Lamasery


Dear Demi
Summer Bliss
Habibi

If the track is slow or worse from the start of racing tomorrow, then the horses may end up closer to the outside fence in the straight although the track should hold together much better than in some past wet Doncaster's.




Mr Lister

2013 April 19 10:40:57

I've said that I think Pierro is the horse to beat. Nothing mind boggling there. The filly Norzita the danger. There is nearly always a roughie or two in the placings in these big Randwick miles. Horses like Chinhoyi who aren't really up to this level but for what ever reason run out of their skin for a career peak. That could be Lightinthenite or Monton. Always a great race for the multiples.

As usual, and the same with the VRC Oaks, the ATC Oaks is an uninspiring event for me. The two NZ fillies look good. You'd think Habibi's form stacks up a bit better than More Than Sacred and she has a run in Sydney under her belt which was quite good. Wallers horse Royal Descent could be the one if she backs up and reproduces her last start effort. She's my selection.

Good luck everyone.

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