Straddie talk nice and early on a Sunday

2012 June 14 11:08:12

Ig,

I agree with your logic about the extra distance covered (albeit I haven't done the maths), my logic is that when you are two wide, you are more likely to get a trail and thus some form of slipstream which should reduce the energy required to maintain the position as opposed to being three wide where chances are there is no slipstream and to use a trotting term, you are facing the breeze, in the death chair etc.

Gee I love a sit.

Regards

Timesman

2012 June 15 01:31:11

Ipswich
Kinnersley
Belltone

2012 June 14 23:08:51

True, Timesman, a horse that is three-deep *may* be more likely to race without cover, but what you tend to find is that people bag jockeys for being three-deep regardless of whether the horse has cover; and regardless of the size of the field (as though they're supposed to race in Indian file)

tigerrish

2012 June 13 13:51:33

Have to agree with your assessment regarding Buffering, Timesman.

Bowman was almost riding for luck and real was relying on something inside him missing the jump so he could slot in and get some cover one off the rails.

Unfortunately it didnt happen and under the circumstances Bowman didnt have any other option but to do what he did on the horse.

Mr Grieves

2012 June 13 16:00:42

I knew it was going to take a pearler from that gate, my beef was that he seemed quite resigned to being out there. I thought a bit of a "rev-up" might have gotten him across, or at least made the others work and hence he may have slotted in, but I thought he accepted his fate too early. In his defence, the horse travelled beautifully and at the 300 I was up out of the chair.

As I said though...pocket talking.

2012 June 13 12:43:28

Mr Grief,

Don't know why Boban led by what he did.

I think Buffering was going to land three deep regardless. HB on Buffering either uses more petrol to lead assuming he gets there, goes back (which is not his pattern) or sits three wide attempting to get a bit of cover. A great run by Buffering (I was on him) and he will pick up a good race in the Spring. The winner did little work from barrier 5 and had a 4.5 kgs weight pull (I think).

Can't comment of Firebolt as I didn't watch the run closely.

Regards

Timesman

2012 June 12 21:06:27

Oh please here he is again..the resident expert Lister.

tigerrish

2012 June 10 20:31:31

You have to feel for the Buffering camp, they cant take a trick.

Had to carry 58 and hasnt won a Gr1, then to make things worse he's stuck out three wide most of the way and only runs out of steam the last 100m.

It was a gutsy effort to run second, all things considered.

2012 June 12 17:59:11

Buffering will have his day Tigger. I hope he does anyway.

He's a great horse.

Mr Grieves

2012 June 13 09:06:19

Geez Hugh Bowman had an ordinary day (talking through my kick here). Got out too late on Firebolt, led by 6-7 lengths on Boban ("raced fiercely" according to him) and then sits three-wide outside the lead on poor old Buffering. Just gave me a reminder of why I usually avoid him.

2012 June 13 13:23:14

I must admit I am somewhat perplexed about why people do so much moaning about horses being "three-wide", whereas, apparently, being two-wide is fine. Surely the difference between the two has little to do with the skill of the jockey and more to do with the size of the field. In an 18-horse field, unless the field is strung right out (unlikely over 1,400 metres), chances are that a handful are going to be three-wide - most likely those, like Buffering, who drew wide. In any case, with just two turns from the 1,400-metre start to the winning post, my calculations indicate that being three-wide, rather than two-wide, would at most lead to a horse covering an extra three metres. Bear in mind, too, that the extra ground covered is likely to be somewhat less than that because even if a horse isn't three-wide around the first turn, it is likely to have to make a fairly wide run around the home turn. Not only that, ground covered doesn't equate to energy lost in the simple manner that many seem to assume.

2012 June 14 09:15:13

Iglesia ... Do you know the difference in lengths a horse covers by being 3 wide.
Given there is very few lengths between 1 grade and the next . It costs them dearly.
Give Buffering the 2 alley , He has an easy win .... His was a great run .

2012 June 10 12:37:09

All,

Count, well done, I didn't have the winner in my top seven.

Well done to others who had the placegetters.

You are in a class of your own. Of the 5 tipsters in the Sportsman having their 4 selections each in the Straddie, not one had the winner runnning in the first four placings.

Gee I love racing, now to the Spring carnival after BC walks in, over in the UK.

Regards

Timesman

2012 June 10 13:57:08

sounds like Moody didn't have her in his top 10 either... what can you do?! well done if you got it.

CountChivas

2012 June 10 13:56:57

Timesman,
Sometimes, big races like the Stradbroke can be a lottery and like most lotteries, not many punters end up with a winning ticket.

I like looking at who's being tipped and who is not and then looking for a 'Forgotten Horse' from those that aren't being considered, yesterday, IMO that forgotten horse was Mid Summer Music.

I thought her second in the 1300m Prime Minister's Cup at the Gold Coast two starts back was good enough form to give her a second thought yesterday.
Her ninth of sixteen at her previous start in the Doomben 10,000 was disappointing but she was down 3.5 kgs on that run and her wet track form showed 7 starts for 5 wins and two placings.

Those couple of positive points made her price of $30 seem well worth an E/W ticket.

More often than not, my 'Forgotten Horse' selections end up with me also wishing I'd forgotten them, but sometimes, like yesterday, things work out, and when they do, it can be quite a tasty payout.

2012 June 13 08:42:25

Good tip regardless CC.

squid69

2012 June 09 20:48:40

Well done Count, hope you had a handsome collect

infidel

2012 June 09 09:57:35

Lottery- pick it with a blindfold and a pin.

Mantank

2012 June 09 10:34:50

Ouch, this is hard!

I'm going to go against the trend, and say one of the mares will break the hoodoo. Varenna Miss marginally over Wealth Princess. Midsummer Music and Shopaholic to run well too.

Smallsy

2012 June 09 16:31:28

Typo: I meant 'lose' easily.

2012 June 09 15:45:42

Would not have picked MSM in my top 10.

You can't beat Moody with a stick

2012 June 10 11:47:26

Todman ... I couldn't either but one from the lighter weighted was always going to emerge .
The winner had a few performances that were strong form lines and the luxury weight. The rest is in C.C's pocket.
Was it right that was the 1 st mare to win the Straddie in over 60 years ?.

Smallsy

2012 June 09 12:19:20

Wealth Princess easily.

2012 June 09 09:21:23

leading up to the time they won Geelong, or after the fact??

I don't have my handy little sheet with me but my recollection was that only 7 of those 20 up to Snipers had won beyond 1400 up to the time they won the Straddie - and even then the collective record of horses that had raced beyond was quite average...

Mantank

2012 June 09 21:35:31

F*** it. Right idea, wrong selection. Good picking Count.

2012 June 09 09:55:17

while buffering and sea siren are the standouts on form, I can see the pace being solid to hot, which gives a chance for a horse from the back.

The above 2 in my top 6, but I am going wide for remainder.

Shopaholic - beat Mosheen and Soft Sand - wide barrier is the big hurdle.

Varenna Miss - stable is confident

Torio's Quest - if it reproduces the form of his last win here, he wins

Listen Son - tough on pace horse - if they can hold him up and the track goes to dead - he is the best long shot all day

CountChivas

2012 June 09 08:48:41

Mid Summer Music E/W for me.
Drawn well, loves the wet & should run well.

Zappy Hero

2012 June 09 17:24:36

Nice work Count

2012 June 10 00:26:12

Great stuff Count Chivas ...
How well you are going now, It was hard work for me setting such a wonderful example for you .
Champaigne and caviar at that price .

2012 June 09 20:26:52

Wow, the form around Black Caviar (Patinack) and Atlantic Jewel (Sapphire/All-Aged) looks okay!

2012 June 09 15:31:58

Well tipped Chivas.

Got in ONE.

You're a good judge too quez.

2012 June 09 07:01:46

Have already backed MSM and TORIO's in early all in markets at big odds, and will also be backing
TRIPLE ELLEGANCE & THANKGODYOU'REHERE ew today on the tote for a little extra..

for exotics am going quite wide and I'm boxing up...

TRIPLE ELEGANCE
TIGER TEES
THANKGODYOU'REHERE
HAPPY ZERO
TORIO'S QUEST

for quins, exacta's, duets, triz & F4's

Not that it needs to be said, but it's a very open race, typical of good Australian hcp betting races..but beware the rain will come and screw up the form later today for sure,

be an early leaders bias in the day , then rain, then out wider they will come.

the urger

2012 June 09 05:00:15

I really liked Wealth Princess a lot but running the week before with 59.5kg on a bog has somewhat concerned me a little.Hopefully it hasn't flattened her.The drier the better for her where she can unleash that fantastic turn of foot she possesses.
Apart from the obvious two it really is a wide open race.Think I'll just about take the field in the quaddie and go short in the other three legs.Good luck all.

2012 June 08 23:47:23

Bodsy - I think the recent winners' list suggests that horses which can run > 1400m are the ones which win more often than not.

2011 - Sincero
2010 - Black Piranha
2009 - Black Piranha
2008 - Mr.Baritone
2007 - Sniper's Bullet
2006 - La Montagna
2005 - St. Basil
2004 - Thorn Park
2003 - Private Steer
2002 - Show A Heart
2001 - Crawl
2000 - Landsighting
1999 - Adam
1998 - Toledo
1997 - Dane Ripper
1996 - Danasinga
1995 - Rouslan
1994 - All Our Mob
1993 - Never Undercharge
1992 - Rough Habit
1991 - Rough Habit

2012 June 08 20:00:33

Hmmmm

I’ve looked at the stats, the history books, my analysis on the last 20 winners and like narky nark on another website, I reckon there is a reason that every runner can’t win tomorrow – isn’t that what makes a handicap more interesting?! I guess that’s why they tend to throw up an interesting winner.

So what are the interesting stats... according to my analysis of winners from the 20 years up to and including Sniper’s – it doesn’t matter that much if you can win beyond 1400, it doesn’t matter if you’ve won a G1 (in fact winning a G1 is just as influential as never having raced in one or even winning a G2), you’ll struggle if you’re a last start winner, a toppie, or a favourite and until recently you could hardly go close off a week back-up…

What the hell is left???

Straight to the market top, the obvious two – Sea Siren and Buffering gapped the 10,000 field… Buffering was a run short and the filly was rewriting records tho I can’t recall the last time a horse attended a history class. Both still to peak, but the obvious, how many times the obvious fall foul of fate – the Stradbroke is littered with more tragedies than a Shakespeare catalogue.

We must look at the 10,000 and fair dinkum, there wasn’t much to crow home about. If I could briefly share my thoughts aside from the obvious 2 – the urgers have pinned down Spirit of Boom and Phelan Ready but I am almost convinced that the track will be in between what these two need to give their best, and their best is what they’ll need to give to win tomorrow. In fact, without bagging Gollan’s Maralinga – remember the Tjaruta – I thought that SOB had the uninterrupted rails run while Phelan Ready could not have asked for a better down the better centre – his last 100 was too weak for this. As others went backwards faster than Casper Creagh from a skirmish, there was one poking, poking looking for a run. Poor old Thankplod couldn’t handle the gate, the weight, the this the that but he did enough to box this little angel and divine intervention wasn’t forthcoming til close the 150 when the regain was applied… best run-on performance in the race I thought, followed by SOB and then nothing – the rest did nothing!

So whatever wins will need to get past the filly, happily creating her own history from the plum gate with the gun run under the two-time pumper… but wait, the mares might tip the scales but haven’t won since a bloke with a horses name discovered America fcuk yeah all those years ago.

Hope you had as much fun dissecting, analyzing and throwing darts as I did…

For peace of mind, it is shown that in the past 20 years, 5 jockeys have doubled up after winning over the Eagle Farm 7… this field boasts 5 former winners, but just 3 of those are due to add a 2nd – is that the sneaky stat? Go Froggy is all I can say

All the best punters!

2012 June 07 20:56:18

Macca,

Thanks, and sorry, I couldn't resist.

Kidlat,

I agree. I reckon we will have the same quinella, I am on Buffering but I reckon SS is very good. The wetter the track, the more bottom weights come into the race.

I see in the press today that SS's owner won't make a decision until 7.30 am on raceday regarding SS's participation in the race. It seems track condition is now the concern.

Interesting if you look at the ratings of the last run (on this site) of the top 3 in the market, Buffering 67.5, Sea Siren 64.5 and Tiger Tees 60.5. So the top two on adjusted WFA ratings on their last run are head and shoulders about the third horse in the market.

Hope you have some luck.

Regards

Timesman

kidlat

2012 June 07 19:47:03

The fact that horses like Pinwheel and TGYH are carrying saddlecloths 4 and 5 in a big Group 1 handicap says a fair bit about this race. Accordingly, the two faves clearly on top here, I'll be very surprised if one of them doesn't win. Leaning toward Buffering.

Raw Instinct

2012 June 08 21:34:05

I really like Wealth Princess in the race personally has enough tactical speed to be put into a good position and still be able to sprint at the end.

I think Shopaholic is ridiculous odds and both Varenna Miss and Sistine Angel are very good chances I will work a trifecta around those 4.

I do not think Buffering will win could be wrong but I don't like him in a high pressure 1400 with 58kgs and I don't think Sea Siren will beat him home so it's safe to say I am not with the fav's here.

2012 June 09 01:54:55

Best roughie is Triple E. Grp 1 placed and last start ran on well and must have broken 34 secs last 600m. Hasnt won in 15 mths but 50-1 is overs.

2012 June 08 07:53:29

The ones down in the weight have such weighr pulls it turns the race into a lottery.
Numerous have been carrying WFA weights and now have a postage stamp.
Sea Siren is carrying over WFA and others many Kilo's under the scale . She is unders by a long way at $4.50.
Timesman's smokey won't be first past the post but is a winner where he is .

2012 June 07 22:27:12

On the contrary, I would suggest that "horses like Pinwheel and TGYH" are in fact fairly typical of the types of horses who go round in big Group One handicaps on a regular basis. It has been a familiar refrain in recent times that such and such isn't the "strongest edition" but when you actually go and have a look at some of the fields that contested these races in the past, chances are that you will be as underwhelmed by them as you are by today's fields - the only difference is that, being in the past, they are subject to nostalgia. Take the 1994 edition. If anyone remembers anything about it, they'll remember that All Our Mob broke through for his first Group One in this race - and that he went onto be a top horse. But - in a full field of 20 - I can only identify three other Group One winners. The other 16 - well, they were the Pinwheels and Thankgodyou'reheres of 1994!

2012 June 07 10:04:47

You'll have to excuse me this time Timesman. Didn't read Maccamax's post, probably for good reason.

2012 June 06 19:53:01

Geelong,

Thanks for that, hate explaining my humour.

Regards

Timesman

2012 June 07 10:00:18

Timesman ..I did see your humour and as a master of comedy I let it go through to the keeper....Cunny fun?
Gee I love a copmpetitive race

2012 June 07 08:45:55

My first four is 8,9,10,17 boxed.

2012 June 06 18:21:47

Master OD .. was still in the field ....I suggest the barrier will kill off Phelan Ready ...enhance Sea Siren .... I am near EF and great drying weather thus far this week but showers predicted from Thursday .
The big pull in the weights here must tell in favour of at least one near the limit . Big ask for S.S.
Good race for the exotic players as it is really a lottery

2012 June 06 13:57:02

Master of Design was sent to stud a month ago Timesman.

2012 June 06 12:21:00

Macca,

Master of Design is the smokey.

Gee I love racing.

Regards

Timesman

2012 June 06 14:47:52

Mental won't get a run. Shame as I had it going in a double with Sea Siren for about $1500. Could have backed myself into a no lose situation.

Now she has drawn well and is confirmed its Sea Siren all the way. She will have to be something special but just perhaps she is exactly that.

gladys

2012 June 07 13:38:29

It's really important, isn't it Lister, to tell everyone not just that you selected it in a double, but how much you had it going for. I am sure we are all suitably impressed. It's not every day that one can nominate a favourite in one leg and a nominal favourite in the other. No wonder you have trouble understanding insurance policies.

thegreatgadsby

2012 June 07 23:42:27

Lister $1500????????/lol
where does a 50 cent e/w punter get those odds?

2012 June 05 19:14:48

I have thrown that dart again..... barriers we decide ouselves ...Rated in lengths

Tiger Tees 127,.. Buffering 126.5... Phelan Ready 126... Red Tracer 125.5... Master Of Design 125.5 [ failed 1 wet run ] Sea Siren 125... Wealth Princess 123.5... Temple of Boom 123.5... Mental 123..

I don't have to be told I am a mug [ I know it ] so save it for Saturday after 5.00 PM

2012 June 06 08:33:12

be funny if it was a him with that name

2012 June 06 13:57:01

I don't know about that WS, there was a chap who crowned himself a prince and was a real shopaholic admittedly he used QLD GOV funds - a paltry 16 million or so.

I also know quite a few chaps who shop daily 7 days a week. Admittedly they only seek a limited range of goods - schooners, JB & coke, slabs, six packs etc but they go to a variety of sales outlets.

lloydchristmas

2012 June 04 20:19:25

I definitely respect neptunes opinion but can only believe what i see and keep coming back tovthe finish of the 10k. same quinella here i think

2012 June 04 20:17:39

Marineboy,

I read today that some investors are putting $2000 bets on SS with Sportingbet. If so, I would suggest they have the some information indicating that SS will start.

If SS does start, I suggest on a dry track she will make her prescence felt along with Buffering (my selection).

Hope you have some luck with Tiger.

Regards

Timesman

2012 June 04 18:49:13

Drying track and rail out 3-4 meters = leaders paradise imo.

neptunesdragon

2012 June 04 15:41:53

Last chance to snap up the good odds about Tiger Tees. Even though I got into him a while back, I loaded up again yesterday (e/w) after I saw Mental down the track at the weekend. With the main contenders all 'doubtful' of either starting or getting into the field Mental, Sea Siren, Pampolene etc, come wednesday he will be close to favourite and a lot shorter odds.
Handles wet or dry conditions, and is tough as nails as testament to never been further back than 2nd in 11 starts. Maybe even better than his 1/2 in Super Easy. Its been a long while since I have been so confident going into a Group race.

phil the punter

2012 June 04 21:15:59

Neptunes;

What about a tough 1400m though?

I'd actually like to see him take a sit, say running 3rd or 4th early. I doubt that will be the case though.

Mr Grieves

2012 June 05 08:52:19

In a weak Straddie, sticking with Buffering. Ran close up last year and he's a much better horse now. Was probably a touch underdone last start.

2012 June 05 16:33:43

varenna miss is my pick but the $18 seems a little tight.

If you forget his 1st up failure, Shopaholic on his win over Mosheen, would be my pick.

2012 June 06 04:17:05

oops - her

justlikejoe

2012 June 01 13:13:22

Bodsy,

Reddie Bay mate.

Weather update, THISSING DOWN.

Joe.

Magpie magic

2012 May 31 08:50:52

There is not many that have contested 1600m.
Which would've given me confidence in a horse for the 1400m Stradbroke.

Those that have haven't really set the world alight at the distance either.

There could be a few falling over at the line with not much else coming, unless something shows that the mile is ideal for the first time.

Sistine Angel for me does fit the 1600m stat with reasonable good results. Last start was probably the best run of the 10,000 too.

I like Phelan Ready a little more than my previous post after watching the 10,000 replay. Sat 3 wide the entire way and didn't look comfortable being there early on aswell, was still hitting the line ok after a tough run at 1350m. With more luck I think will be around the mark even though is only 1 placing from 7 starts at 1400m.

TGYH disappointed me in the 10,000 to be honest.
Spirit of Boom got the rails run start to finish which could flatter the run.

A couple more to run on Saturday which could change things again!

MM

2012 May 30 23:13:08

Straddy all in bets I'm on...

Mid Summer Music @ 51's ( not confident anymore )
Torio's Quest @ 26's and again @ 16's..like him alot..!!
Varenna Miss @ 26's and again @ 17's..like her alot..!!
Shopaholic @ 35's .. Needs it dry.
Jetset Lad @ 71's..smoky.

Troliver Fan

2012 May 31 10:20:19

What a waste of $7, Quez.

2012 May 31 09:27:45

So far quez you've selected

Shenzou Steeds
Mid Summer Music
Varrena Miss
Lucripetous
Freewheeling
Zauberflote
Thangodyourehere
Torios Quest
Shopaholic
Jetset Lad

10 selections over various threads.

Good luck.

theknuck

2012 May 30 22:53:48

Does the winner of the Guineas get a run in the straddie?

If so I'll have a fiver on Morning Captain at a million to one. Never saw an inch of daylight last time behind Mental and I think he is a chance of beating him this weekend @ 25/1.

Fergo

2012 May 31 19:32:36

Saw that too Knuck, and was keen to bet next time the Captain went round and probably still will despite the barrier.

No luck last two.

2012 May 31 10:23:22

"for mine, if Mental makes the field, he wins"

Then he's a good thing this Sat?

Zappy Hero

2012 June 01 10:25:22

WS- fair question. Slow 7 right now at Eagle Farm, and if it doesn't get worse, I'll say yes. But I don't back horses at $2 and won't be tomorrow. I won't bet on the race but will be happy if he wins and makes the Straddy

2012 May 30 13:07:11

Listen Son, Tiger Tees, Sea Siren and Buffering control the tempo Bodsy. Can't see it being breakneck but it's rarely slow. Early days as far as track conditions and any bias/trend goes but I'd reckon at least a couple of those horses will be fighting out the finish.

Current TAB market

SEA SIREN 5.5 2.12
MENTAL 6.5 2.37
BUFFERING 8 2.75
TIGER TEES 8 2.75
WEALTH PRINCESS 11 3.5
TORIOS QUEST 11 3.5
PAMPELONNE 15 4.5
SOLZHENITSYN 17 5
VARENNA MISS 17 5
PINWHEEL 17 5
SPIRIT OF BOOM 21 6
MIDSUMMERMUSIC 26 7.25
RIVA DE LAGO 26 7.25
PHELAN READY 26 7.25
TEMPLE OF BOOM 26 7.25
NEESON 31 8.5
RED TRACER 31 8.5
THANKGODYREHERE 35 9.5
AMAH ROCK 35 9.5
SHOPAHOLIC 35 9.5
SISTINE ANGEL 35 9.5
BOYS ON TOUR 51 13.5
CARRY ME BLUEY 51 13.5
EASY RUNNING 51 13.5
SOPHIES SPIRIT 61 16
JETSET LAD 71 18.5
TRIPLE ELEGANCE 71 18.5
HAPPY ZERO 71 18.5
EMMALENE 71 18.5
CELTIC DANCER 71 18.5
ADAMANTIUM 81 21
STEEL ZIP 81 21
METALLURGICAL 101 26
MORNING CAPTAIN 101 26
MEET GEORGE 101 26
LISTEN SON 101 26
BELLTONE 151 38.5

2012 May 30 12:34:32

WS,

I was rearranging my fingers and toes and realised my numbers were wrong by the way I was walking. I rushed to the keyboard still having difficulty with my fingers but you beat me to it.

Gee I love calculators:)

Regards

Timesman

2012 June 02 15:32:58

Very pleased Torio's Quest stayed home today.
Need some sunshine next week though. Needs dead to better.

BB

2012 June 02 17:02:58

No bets for me today. Hope it clears up for next week.

Magpie magic

2012 May 30 11:22:33

I have tried to some form research and background on the Stradbroke and I have Sistine Angel on top.

Really keen to look further into the previous starts of a few of these but really like -

Sistine Angel
Spirit of Boom
Thankgodyou'rehere

Torio's Quest
Wealth Princess

Tiger Tees
Phelan Ready

Staggered in groups to show my order of preference

2012 May 30 11:10:10

After 1st Acceptances - (37 acceptances)

1 BUFFERING 58.0
2 TEMPLE OF BOOM 57.0
3 PINWHEEL 56.0
4 HAPPY ZERO 56.0
5 NEESON 55.5
6 THANKGODYOU’REHERE 55.5
7 SEA SIREN 55.0
8 PHELAN READY 54.5
9 TRIPLE ELEGANCE 54.5
10 RED TRACER 54.0
11 TIGER TEES 54.0
12 SPIRIT OF BOOM 54.0
13 TORIO’S QUEST 54.0
14 MID SUMMER MUSIC 53.5
15 VARENNA MISS 53.0
16 WEALTH PRINCESS 53.0
17 SISTINE ANGEL 53.0
18 SHOPAHOLIC 51.5
---
19 LISTEN SON 53.5
20 JETSET LAD 53.5
21 PAMPELONNE 51.5
22 EASY RUNNING 51.5
23 MENTAL 51.5

then: Sophie’S Spirit, Solzhenitsyn, Carry Me Bluey, Adamantium, Morning Captain, Metallurgical, Steel Zip, Riva De Lago, Emmalene, Amah Rock, Celtic Dancer, Belltone, Boys On Tour, Meet George

Neeson and TQ have accepted for QTC Cup and have drawn the car park!

2012 May 30 10:46:28

BB, I forgot to mention Hugh keeps the ride on Buffering...

Bensley reports Nash goes to Temple of Boom. He also reports Thankgod and Neeson no certs and I imagine that with the poor record of horses backing up in the Strad, you wouldn't run this week..

Any replays of the 10,000 around. I'd be keen to see the run of SOB - have a feeling if a run was swapped we'd be talking about another horse today.

Seems to be some keenness on SOB, TQ and WP and I have my spec - all run-on types, thoughts on tempo with the suggested field?

erikgrrd

2012 May 30 20:14:21

SOB for me as well.

2012 May 30 07:33:45

Fergo,

Sorry, got my nubers wrong SOB drops by 5 kgs to 54 kgs so meets SS 5 kgs better and Buff 4 kgs better. Depending on your ratio of weight to distance makes for an interesting race.

Regards

Timesman

2012 May 29 22:11:02

Fergo,

SOB meets Buffering and SS 3 kgs better and 4 kgs better respectively on SOB's last run. On my calc's SOB is still about 1/2 to a length short on Buff and on par with SS. Albeit it doesn't always work out this way:)

Lets see what the weekend throws up.

Hope you have some luck.

Regards

Timesman

2012 May 30 00:27:08

Timesman,

That's not right - according to Risa SOB meets Buffering 4kgs better and SS 5kgs better after the penalty.

Not sure where you got your numbers from.

2012 May 29 15:42:11

Timesman, indeed and for me, it is to get in when the market is top heavy with horses that aren't running. I'll have something on the day if need be. Good luck with Buffering!

may i say, gee I love a handicap - speaking of which, where did u play Joe?

some interesting comments floating around.. Mental has been my carnival watch horse, saw him win on Cup Day - not imposing by any stretch but what a super relaxed horse. While a few others were carrying on like pork chops, he seemed completely oblivious. I reckon Pete likes this one... a lot.

Fergo

2012 May 29 18:23:01

Spirit of boom must be a chance given his recent run on performances against the pattern at Doomben.

Over to Eagle Farm, down in weight. I'll take him and wealth princess.

2012 May 29 20:44:36

Agree with Fergo.

2012 May 29 15:24:50

with the retirement of that little Darley beauty Beaded, the Courier is reporting the following are also definitely out - Gathering, Centennial Park, Facile Tigre, Star of Occy, Parables, Adebisi... leaving -

1 BUFFERING 58.0
2 TEMPLE OF BOOM 57.0
3 PINWHEEL 56.0
4 HAPPY ZERO 56.0
5 NEESON 55.5 (QTC)
6 THANKGODYOU’REHERE 55.5 (QTC)
7 SEA SIREN 55.0
8 PHELAN READY 54.5
9 TRIPLE ELEGANCE 54.5
10 RED TRACER 54.0 (DR)
11 SPIRIT OF BOOM 54.0
12 TIGER TEES 54.0
13 TORIO’S QUEST 54.0 (QTC)
14 MID SUMMER MUSIC 53.5
15 VARENNA MISS 53.0
16 WEALTH PRINCESS 53.0 (DR)
17 SISTINE ANGEL 53.0
18 LADYS ANGEL 53.0
---
19 FILLYDELPHIA 53.0 (DR)
20 SHOPAHOLIC 51.5 (QTC,DR,QG)
21 UNDER THE EIFFEL 53.5
22 SHADOWS IN THE SUN 53.5
23 LISTEN SON 53.5 (QTC)

then: JETSET LAD, PUNCH ON, EASY RUNNING (QG), HENDRICUS, MY DESTINY, CARRY ME BLUEY, SOPHIE’S SPIRIT (DR), MORNING CAPTAIN (QG), MENTAL (QG), ADAMANTIUM (QG), METALLURGICAL (QTC), RISK AVERSION (QTC,DR), EMMALENE (DR,QG), FONTELINA, STEEL ZIP (QTC), STRATANA, PAGO ROCK, NEXT THE UNIVERSE, CELTIC DANCER (QTC), ALBERTON PARK, AMAH ROCK (QG), SOLZHENITSYN

the first four emergencies are listed as unlikely to go to Straddie but probably won't know until next week. I couldn't be sure about the local horses - I'm sure their trainers would jump at the chance to run in their home $1M G1. The code in bracket is what they're nom'ed to run in this weekend. Solzy goes round in the Strawberry Road h'cap also..

2012 May 29 14:44:09

WS,

I reckon Buffering has had a better prep this time in and looks a different horse to last time when we ran 4th.

Regards

Timesman

2012 May 29 13:49:42

Todman,

According to A Bensley on radio Sunday morning last, it was due to Undue (no joke intended) winning the 10,000 then missing a start in the Straddie.

Gee I love my very limited amount of grey matter.

Regards

Timesman

Moleboy

2012 May 29 13:45:24

I usually avoid the boom horses in these big races but this race could be the exception that proves the rule.

btw...I prefer the boom horse with some form over the distance over the one that won the Galaxy.

2012 May 29 12:52:32

Four horses have won the Stradbroke-Doomben 10,000 double in the one year: High Rank (1941), Winfreux (1965), Spedito (1975) and Campaign King (1988).

SS is a terrific horse but I think she's worth risking. These 2 races suit different types of horses and if she can't beat Streama then I have my doubts about beating these over 1400m when the weights don't really suit.

I think she has a big future as a 1200m sprinter. Without BC she'd be the sprinter to follow.

Buffering is a terrific 1200m horse and if he couldnt win the straddie with 52kgs what chance this year carrying weight? Even less.

2012 May 29 11:33:09

If you go through the list of Stradbroke winners one thing becomes clear. It's some advantage to be able to run a mile.
2011 - Sincero
2010 - Black Piranha
2009 - Black Piranha
2008 - Mr.Baritone
2007 - Sniper's Bullet
2006 - La Montagna
2005 - St. Basil
2004 - Thorn Park
2003 - Private Steer
2002 - Show A Heart
2001 - Crawl
2000 - Landsighting
1999 - Adam
1998 - Toledo
1997 - Dane Ripper
1996 - Danasinga
1995 - Rouslan
1994 - All Our Mob
1993 - Never Undercharge
1992 - Rough Habit
1991 - Rough Habit

phil the punter

2012 May 30 20:49:36

Very, very keen on MENTAL.

He is the right age, has the right form, low weight and he is historically typical of the type of run on horse that wins this race. And the tempo this year should once again be pretty solid. His win over Pampelonne & Said Com last prep is the best guide to this race considering the weight relief he now gets off the likes of Sea Siren.
Said Com gave Mosheen 2kg and was only beaten a narrowly by it in the Randwick Guineas. Mosheen is a better filly than Sea Siren.

He has to win the Guineas this Saturday to qualify but you'd expect him to do so.

My only reservations would be the 7 day backup into the race and the fact that Eagle Farm now seems to favour an on pace type of horse.

Magpie magic

2012 May 29 09:39:08

I think something important to note in regards to the Stradbroke is the weights.

The 10,000 is the key race and finding something that ran well and will be getting considerable weight relief is what i will be looking for.
I haven't seen the 10,000 yet.

This field for the Stradbroke might be a tight bunch I reckon and the weight & barrier may just be the factor that finds our winner.

infidel

2012 May 29 09:15:59

On the one hand, I can see why the owner of Sea Siren is annoyed at getting a penalty for winning a wfa race, because it doesn't happen with other wfa races. On the other hand, however, it is unfair in all those wfa races, being able to win a race penalty free that is much stronger than the races you can get a penalty.

2012 May 29 10:41:05

Can't knock Keeffy's enthusiasm.
Bet to you bleed but If she doesn't win...that's racing.

Is that your version of a disclaimer Keef?

I agree that Sea Siren will beat home Mental but I don't think either will win it for the reasons I've outlaid earlier.

BB

bkmac

2012 May 28 20:33:58

Sea Siren just wins bet till you bleed
She runs 1.08.10 at WFA fresh
then at WFA 2nd up only one that gets near her is Buffering and lets face it 50m further and he is a bridesmaid at this level.
Nothing else got near her.
Doesnt mater eagle farm, doomben, whe you got a racing pattern like she does and can peal off times like she can it just doesnt matter.
If they run her she is a moral.
I am on at $100 at $11 before the BTC
I have her through multis every where
Tiger Tees can at least run time and be close enough to her in the running to be matheatically possible.
But he will either be 3 weeks between runs or 1 week between runs. No thanks.
Mental hasnt beaten anything any where near the level of G1 WFA and will be spotting her too much start and will be impossible to run her down. Also comes through the same problem of having to back up 7 days.
Everything wlse has been smacked by her already.
Like i said bet till you bleed and if she doesnt run well thats racing.
Although it is a disgrace this WFA penalty system.

2012 May 28 18:50:29

Yes BB and they came from the stands to back him that day at the Farm iirc. Partelle said earlier this month that he was over his niggles but needs a good track to produce his best (despite the GC win?).

justlikejoe

2012 May 28 16:52:29

Im sweating on Wealth Princess staying sound and getting a run. Doesnt look an overly strong field for a group 1, i really think she can blow them away.

Showers are predicted Geelong, but it is blowing its backside off which burnt off fridays rain (the greens were very quick saturday morning). I reckon it will be dead at worst if the pattern stays the same.

Joe.

2012 May 28 17:47:12

If Mental wins the Guineas and gets in he will defy the last start syndrome for mine. He's the one on the up weighted to win. Just needs to make the field. Sea Siren is the other but may not run and the weight is really against her now.

2012 May 28 16:27:57

Bodsy,

Thanks for that, prep-post doesn't alwasys work but I reckon it is the premium you are looking for to determine if you are getting a price to reward you for going in before final field. I have been burn't before ie the hawk in the derby, so, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

I reckon the weights look pretty compressed here, thanks for the field update.

I am on Buffering at $11.00.

Hope you have some luck.

Regards

Timesman

2012 May 28 15:29:58

He has the profile FJ. According to Racenet "No last-start winner has won the Stradbroke Handicap since Never Undercharge in 1993. In fact, only six horses in those 18 years have filled a place [in their leadup]."

I'm forgiving all backmarkers from Doomben. Seemed to me that it was very difficult to come from the back and figure on Sat. Makes the run of Fantastic Blue look even better.

fatjack

2012 May 28 14:37:01

If there's a little bit of moisture around and he draws well, Phelan Ready will be feelin'ready and will shake the life out of this straddie.
Cheers
FJ

erikgrrd

2012 May 30 20:03:22

Phelan Ready can't run out a strong 1400 in this company.

fatjack

2012 May 28 16:15:40

If it's dead or better I think SOB could be a great each way chance at $26.
Cheers
FJ

PS I am a little biased toward him at present cos he got me the first 4 on Satdy for 20%. WooooooHooooo!!!!!

2012 May 28 16:10:16

I just can't get Torio's Quest's win in the QLD Guineas lasr year out of my head.
His 2 big career wins (magic millions 3 year old & QLD Guineas) have come up there and although he has been frustrating at times with niggly injuries, he is an explosive animal when on song. Was $17 for the Cox plate at the start of the spring.

Thought he was excellent at Scone with big weight, not 100% wound up and Riva De Lago is a handy one himself.

54kg on Stradbroke day is appealing and I am sure Hugh Bowman will be riding him.

I'm not going to back him yet as I think $12.00 is horrible value atm and if he draws deep I am certain will be longer on the day.

He's my tip anyway.

BB

2012 May 28 14:19:51

might help if I read the conditions properly

1 BUFFERING 58.0
2 BEADED 57.0
3 TEMPLE OF BOOM 57.0
4 PINWHEEL 56.0
5 HAPPY ZERO 56.0
6 NEESON 55.5
7 THANKGODYOU’REHERE 55.5
8 CENTENNIAL PARK 55.5
9 SEA SIREN 55.0
10 PHELAN READY 54.5
11 TRIPLE ELEGANCE 54.5
12 GATHERING 54.5
13 RED TRACER 54.0
14 SPIRIT OF BOOM 54.0
15 FACILE TIGRE 54.0
16 TIGER TEES 54.0
17 TORIO’S QUEST 54.0
18 MID SUMMER MUSIC 53.5
---
19 VARENNA MISS 53.0
20 WEALTH PRINCESS 53.0
21 STAR OF OCTAGONAL 54.0
22 SISTINE ANGEL 53.0
23 LADYS ANGEL 53.0

2012 May 28 14:10:54

nice job Timesman - $6 was a steal...

I have this as the field so far but there are doubts in there - I don't think Centennial Park and Happy Zero are coming... Beaded and Sea Siren are doubts, haven't heard anything on Facile Tigre.

I have backed Sistine Angel @ $40 and was not too displeased with her effort on Saturday...

1 BUFFERING 58.0
2 BEADED 57.0
3 TEMPLE OF BOOM 57.0
4 PINWHEEL 56.0
5 HAPPY ZERO 56.0
6 NEESON 55.5
7 THANKGODYOU’REHERE 55.5
8 CENTENNIAL PARK 55.5
9 SEA SIREN 55.0
10 PHELAN READY 54.5
11 TRIPLE ELEGANCE 54.5
12 GATHERING 54.5
13 RED TRACER 54.0
14 SPIRIT OF BOOM 54.0
15 FACILE TIGRE 54.0
16 TIGER TEES 54.0
17 TORIO’S QUEST 54.0
18 MID SUMMER MUSIC 53.5
19 VARENNA MISS 53.0
20 WEALTH PRINCESS 53.0
---
21 STAR OF OCTAGONAL 54.0
22 SISTINE ANGEL 53.0
23 LADYS ANGEL 53.0
24 PARABLES 53.0

then...

FILLYDELPHIA
ADEBISI
SHOPAHOLIC
UNDER THE EIFFEL
SHADOWS IN THE SUN
LISTEN SON
JETSET LAD
PUNCH ON
EASY RUNNING
HENDRICUS
MY DESTINY
CARRY ME BLUEY
SOPHIE’S SPIRIT
MORNING CAPTAIN
MENTAL
ADAMANTIUM

2012 May 28 11:38:19

Mr Lister,

Thanks for your comemnts.

I understand SS has now received 1.5 penalty. This takes her to 54 kgs and Buffering is on 57 kgs. So, Buffering meets SS 1 kg better than on Saturday.

I understand that the topweight must carry about 58.5 kgs, so, weights may be raised another 1 to 1.5 kgs. I am not 100% sure on this though.

A great win on Saturday by SS to be headed then come back and win.

I agree that is SS can win the Straddie, we may well have another star.

Gee I am warming to winter racing.

Regards

Timesman

Laws clause: Was on SS at $6.00 (preppost) and had a good whack on quinella but just missed the first 4.

Zappy Hero

2012 May 30 21:04:03

for mine, if Mental makes the field, he wins. Obviously if the notorious winter carnival rain plays havoc... dartboard time, like a lot of Brisbane racing/ form! Hardest carnival of the year from a punters perspective.

2012 May 31 10:35:05

" and the fact that Eagle Farm now seems to favour an on pace type of horse."

You raise a very interesting point. For yrs and yrs Doomben was more of a leaders track and EF a backmarkers track. The great Chief De Beers won all these races at Doomben but always got run down at EF.

But like you I've noticed the past couple of yrs that the type of winners at these tracks has swapped around. I don't bet in Brisbane every week but it does seem like it's changed a lot.

Have they changed these tracks in any way which would make this to happen?

It does seem like a general shift in winners rather than just the odd extreme pace situations causing it.

phil the punter

2012 June 01 15:50:00

Not really sure WS. My guess is that the surface needs to be dug up and relaid. There were a few disgruntled jockeys saying similar a couple of years ago but the powers to be seemed to think there wasn't an issue.

It definitely has changed the complexion of racing over a fairly long period and they do seem to move the rail out quite a bit
which almost always favours the on pacers too. Gotta say I haven't been that attentive to it over the past 6 months or so I can't be overly definitive.

One thing you can almost always depend on though is a high tempo in the Stradbroke and this year should be no exception. That should at least even the ledger a bit in regard to the midfield/backmarker horses saluting

BUT one thing you have to be wary of is that when the track is rated Slow or worse the on pacers have a much better record in this race. Almost exclusively so until Black Piranha won his first one in 2009.

I couldn't possibly back MENTAL a week out from the race now.
Quite likely it will be a Slow or worse track tomorrow which probably makes it harder for him to win the Guineas and makes recovery an issue too. And you have to wonder what the weather gods have in store for us over the next week or so and what that is going to mean for an already dubious track surface.
I'd still have him as clearly the horse to beat but the confidence is wavering.

WEALTH PRINCESS is another I'd be considering very seriously.

2012 June 02 09:14:51

EF is a goat track when it gets to heavy.

No real track improvements for yonks and certainly not since Insecure won the guineas in 1998 when the track was a bog and a disgrace.

It needs a complete overhaul. Doomben leaves it for dead as a wet track.

2012 June 02 10:08:03

Eagle Farm is a dump full stop.

Needs demolishing and complete redevelopment.
Massive potential but maybe too many heads up too many backsides within the halls of power to make sense of it all.

2012 May 28 11:31:13

Yet another FEMALE champ...gee the geldings are copping a flogging more n more now these days, what with having to give these girls weight and not be allowed to use the anabolics anymore...it's becoming a farce, something has to give.

2012 May 28 10:33:00

Showers predicted in Brisbane for most of this week and early next. Fingers crossed we get a track which is fair to all runners.

2012 May 28 10:10:09

Sea Siren will run in the Stradbroke.

2012 May 28 09:57:28

I like Spirit of Boom if he makes the field. 24th in order.

2012 May 28 12:34:37

You don't often see a race where so many of the chances are so far down the order of entry. Will be interesting to see what the attrition rate is.

2012 May 28 19:02:15

The Stradbroke is a new ball game ... Big open spaces. Doomben is as tight as they get and not easy for the milers to perform.
SS , surely won't start. Will find it a harder task than her last 2 great wins.
I am hoping for some wet and the Epsom placegetter Red Tracer will get a chance to prove the form stronger as Pinker Pinker did.
The Brisbane Winter Carnival is a shining light before we warm up for another Spring smorgasboard of good racing .

Torpedo Punt

2012 June 07 08:32:27

Shopaholic sneaky for me.

Torp..

2012 May 28 23:54:21

I reckon Alan Thomas made a great point regarding the 3 year olds and whether they can win this years' Stradbroke.
Do you think they're as good as Sincero was at this stage last year?

If you do i.e. Mental & Sea Siren, then you should be with them.

Personally I don't think a 3 year old will win this year. I don't rate Mental in the same class as Sincero and I don't rate Sea Siren in the same class as Private Steer. She will be found out at Eagle Farm 1400m (she won't get the same luxuries as she has had at Doomben) and Mental will not win the Stradbroke coming from the restricted Guineas. Sincero had a much better grounding for the Stradbroke campaign with his prep before resulting in 3 city wins including 2 over the Metric mile at Randwick. There can be no tougher grounding than that. Mental finished 4th in a flimsy Stakes race on the final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, admittedly running home well.

It's just my opinion. Feel free to cut and paste this and ridicule me in a few weeks time of I am wrong. I can only provide my 5 cents worth and can take criticism where deserved.

BB

2012 May 29 12:30:25

I would suggest Sea Siren is better than Sincero was last year. Her two WFA wins show that. No for Mental but he's untapped.

You need to measure this years field against last years to quantify that though.

2012 May 29 12:55:11

I think you will find that a penalty for winning the 10000, was written into the Stradbroke rules after Red Oog missed a start in the Stradbroke after winning the 10000.

My grey cells may have it cock eyed but hopefully not. So while it is a local rule that probably does not apply anywhere else in OZ, there is some logic to it.

2012 May 29 14:04:07

Correct Todman.

Would have made more sense to just award automatic entry to the 10,000 winner.

lostclarity

2012 May 28 07:15:28

When those two settled down to fight it out didn't you know she was going to win.

2012 May 27 22:07:12

Buffering topweight, Torio's Quest to win if it's dry. Anyone know the 'long term' forecast?

2012 May 27 22:06:47

Buffering topweight, Torio's Quest to win if it's dry. Anyone know the 'long term' forecast?