The 2008 MC winner..

gab
2008 October 19 08:37:31 
.. did not race in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.

That was one of the weakest in memory and I doubt any of these will figure in the winners circle come MC time.
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15 Comments

dalyco

2008 November 04 21:06:19

O'Brien and Coolmore must be very very ashamed.

Weld and Cumani have shown their superiority today

tigerrish

2008 November 04 20:14:00

Gab, the Euro's arent overrated all. The stables who keep coming here from Europe with the wrong approach are doing themselves no favours.

To suggest that Weld and the Cumani's are overrated after their horses finished 2nd,5th and 7th is ridiculous. The Cumani's will win this race soon than later, if the O'Brien stable come doing what they did today, they have no hope.

Pinkline Jones

2008 November 04 21:09:26

Septimus is obviously a furlong or so better than his eighteenth suggests but he should have had a run prior to The Cup. A bit arrogant not to have done so.

tigerrish

2008 November 04 18:29:27

The winner came through the Caulfield Cup .....

gab

2008 November 04 19:51:24

Pink and tigger,

My original post was how weak the Caulfield Cup was and that what looked like good runs were being over-valued.

The result made some sense Pink. The Euros are over-rated. Master O'Reilly and Zipping turned in similar efforts to last year-Master O'Reilly better, Zipping worse but he did get checked and held up and should have finished closer.

Yes, the winner was from the CC but he was badly checked and had to change course at a crucial moment. Even allowing for this I didn't think he could win the MC and to be honest if he was $12 or less, I would have laid him too.

Pinkline Jones

2008 November 04 21:07:19

Gab,

How on earth could you confidently say that a horse which rattled home from near last on the home turn in a Caulfield Cup to be fourth, was not going to play a major role today?

I repeat, he didn't not follow up on his great run in the Caulfield Cup and you could not have confidently predicted that he wouldn't have done.

PINKLINE

turnto

2008 November 04 21:40:00

pinkline the answer to your ill informed remarks about Mad RUSH are as follows

comments om mad rush after his 2nd in europe over 3000 METRES

"mid-division, close 7th straight, brought wide and challenged 1 1/2f out, driven and every chance final furlong until unable to quicken last 80yds"

to me it was obvious he could not win yet he was in my tri because of his class.

do some form next time goose.

gab

2008 November 02 15:05:58


With Efficient out of the cups, I am going to have to retract a number of my earlier posts.

Since I'll be spending Tuesday in Paris the nom du jeu is.....c'est la guerre.

gab

2008 November 04 17:29:50


Bonjour from Paris,

The View at the 200m was looking good but died on his run. Still 8.10 for the place was great C'est La Guerre.

As predicted the Caulfield Cup form was awful and made a good profit laying Mad Rush, Nom De Jeu and All The Good as well.

Hope you all had a great day.

Pinkline Jones

2008 November 04 18:19:32

Gab,

The race result made little sense. So 'as predicted' makes the same amount of sense. There was nothing wrong with Mad Rush's Caulfield Cup run. All that happened is he didn't follow it up and ran ten lengths below his CC effort. That's just one example of the curiosities in today's farce.

PINKLINE JONES OBE

nigeltufnel

2008 October 27 22:13:07

......may very well have his/her chances greatly improved by the weather.

Very good point, mr jones - rain forecast here nearly every day over the next week. IF we get what Perth got the other night ........


Nige

leigh007

2008 October 23 19:40:58

cyclonic conditions MC day,viewed to do a van der hum.cheers 007.

bkmac

2008 October 21 10:16:51

Know where you are coming from with Littorio and Master oreilly. Am worried about Littorio running out a strong 3200m, though he will appreciate flemington and did run well in Caulfield Cup and has been racing well. Mater oreilly went a bit better as a Melb cup trial finishing 6th then Littorio I thought and was more likely to run 3200m. After Being told that his preparation had been changed to help him Melb cup I was starting to warm to him. Not sure about starting in the cox plate. Maybe they think he needs another run in the legs to help him run out 3200m or maybe they want to win the cox plate? Last years failure has me worried to. I have reservations about both and am not backing them at this stage. But am entertaining the thought of Master Oreilly.

geelong63

2008 October 23 22:22:55

Forget Master O'Reilly in the Cup. Weight and breeding (sire) will find him out. Missed the $26 Mad Rush so I'm now looking for something at a better price (All The Good?).

nigeltufnel

2008 October 27 19:30:03

Interestingly Geelong1963 (great name, that) I heard Kavanagh on Racing Review give a push for ATG; he said the horse blew for an hour after the CC, and looked to have a bit of improvement left in him.


Nige

gab

2008 October 27 19:00:53

The 2008 MC winner was not in the Cox Plate or MV Cup either.

mrjones

2008 October 27 20:24:52

With rain forecast for the next week (but who knows whether we'll really get any) I think C'est Le guerre is good value based on his run in the CP. Ran on well from well back and is in the right local stable and looks to have been set for the race. The NZ Derby form has stood up so at $26 (still on offer through betfair) you could do alot worse.

danc72

2008 October 21 11:47:13

Watching the CC replay as I guide to the MC my thinking is;

NDJ and Mad Rush finished off faster than all the others but can they finish that well running another 800m.

Master O'Reilly and Ice Chariot were griniding home well and another 800m doesn't look like a problem, just depends on how far back they get.

Viewed had to duck and weave through the gaps but still looked like it could run another 800m, again depends on how far back.

Boundless was griniding home well until chopped off by Mad Rush.

Barbaricus still held on well to the line after a tough run, maybe with an easier run it too can run 3200m

The thing that most poeple forget when looking at finding a MC winner is that most horses can't run 3200m, especailly in a time needed to win.

Weight Special

2008 October 22 23:56:05

"Check out the race again and who covered the most ground we still have a few Aussie hopes, MOR & Littorio don't write em off yet."

MOR has a better place chance in the CP. He will be struggling to run the 3200m and with 55kgs he's got to be good to place or better with that.

Littorio looks like Maybe Better. Suited at Flemington but place chance looks best. With 52.5kgs I think was the same weight as MB.

Bauer's win today just franked the CC form. He's a place chance.

Littorio looks the best weighted outta the Aussies but he's running for the place.








fatjack

2008 October 21 13:55:16

Dancer,
Ice Chariot was an ENORMOUS run in the CC, I'm very happy with 75/17 at present, I just hope he has had enough miles in his legs this prep to get the 3200 he has never raced better than he is racing at present.
FJ

slim

2008 October 21 15:41:00

Well done fellas for a good constructive post so far.
No wise cracks or name calling used here even though some posters ideas on different horses differ.
This type of post is just what this forum needs.

gab

2008 October 22 18:45:21


And the winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup was not in todays Geelong Cup.

Weight Special

2008 October 23 00:01:15

Best aussie - littorio
Best kiwi - NDJ

imports - pretty much all of them. 1 or 2 might fail though as usual.

so the likely top 6 will be 1 aussie, 1 kiwi and 4 imports.

unless something jumps outta the ground very soon.

CountChivas

2008 October 23 09:10:28


Littorio is a non winner and won't see which way Efficient went in this years MC.

Weight Special

2008 October 23 09:56:34

Efficient is also a non winner, having won 1 race in almost 2 years. He won't even run a place this year.

poprock

2008 October 21 01:54:41

Don't judge the last 200m of the CC as guide to the Melbourne Cup if you do Mad Rush and Nom De Jeu look stand outs.

Remove the blinkers

Eye Popper didn't finish all over them in the CC but didn't he cover some ground. Bet he slept well that night. Poprock was the one that flashed home into 4th or 5th place. I worked out Eye Popper ran 2430m, unfortunately it was only a saver no guessing who I declared.

Check out the race again and who covered the most ground we still have a few Aussie hopes, MOR & Littorio don't write em off yet.
They both ran 15m further than Mad Rush and were 2m-3m behind.



tigerrish

2008 October 20 11:34:58

Victorian,

We'll know more after next Tuesday I suppose, you could well be right. He does seem to race better when he gets to the bigger tracks as he did in both Derbys.

tigerrish

2008 October 20 03:32:21

Littorio will appreciate the bigger track and longer straight in the MC just as he did in the Turnbull, he's not out of it as yet.

Victorian

2008 October 20 10:30:29

Hi tiggerish,

I was having a nice chat with the boys in the chat room on Friday night and did comment that I think Littorio is still a big baby and has a deal of maturing to do.

Not having anything to do with the stable this is just my opinion and an outsiders view.
The boys thought as he has raced in two Derbys and had three or four preps that he is mature enough, I still have my reservations though.

I think the horse is a real chance for next year's CC/MC double.

As for now I am not so convinced. I think he is not right there as a racehorse yet.

CountChivas

2008 October 20 00:02:38


After yesterday’s Caulfield Cup it would seem that Australia has only one real chance to keep the Cup at home this year, and that’s Efficient.

There’s not much doubt that with an ounce of luck in the straight yesterday, Mad Rush would have grabbed third placing, giving a clean sweep of the placings to overseas gallopers.
The top 5 in current MC betting look the goods, Mad Rush, Septimus, Efficient, All The Good and Nom Du Jeu, the other Aussie runners in the market are Littorio and Master O’Reilly and only a glutton for punishment would consider wasting any more money those two. I thought Viewed finished yesterday’s race off strongly and had his run been down the outside instead of the checkered passage he took along the inside he may have finished even closer to the placegetters, he may be an outside chance to finish in the placings in the Melbourne Cup.

The other Europeans, Honolulu and Profound Beauty make this year’s race even more difficult to assess and the fact that Profound Beauty is trained by the master trainer Dermott Weld means that she has to be included amongst the chances on that score alone.
Not counting Littorio and Master O'Reilly, I'd be very surprised if the horses I've mentioned above don't fill the first four placings in the M/Cup.

Efficient deprived the foreigners in last years Cup and he’s only been trained to win one race this year, lets hope he can do it again.

seventhheaven

2008 October 20 08:48:46

Shocking race.

If Barbaricus can travel wide for the first 600-700 and then cross and hold on for third the race is terrible.

Melbourne Cup - Efficient

Weight Special

2008 October 20 11:07:52

The race isnt terrible because of Barb at all. He's a lightly raced talented 4yo who was fit and bolters often run a big race in cups. On pacers at Caulfield are always a danger.

She's Archie ran 2nd in the MC. Is Diva a dud for beating her? No.

Nom Du Jeu has form around the Cox Plate favourite and Mad Rush placed in a group 2 in France.

All the Good won the Ebor replacement by 3.3 lengths.

It wasn't a weak race at all.

You think the Geelong Cup will be stronger?







seventhheaven

2008 October 20 11:47:23

Weight Special -

'She's Archie ran 2nd in the MC. Is Diva a dud for beating her? No'

No one said she is a dud, just goes to show that her Melb. Cup wins were against sub standard competition. Same goes for when she beat On A Jeune. No one said that All The Good is a dud for beating Barbaricus either. We are just saying the quality of the race must have been lacking if a Cranbourne Cup placegetter who couldnt beat Majestical last start runs 3rd.

And no, the Geelong Cup will not be stronger.

You forget though that Barbaricus did not 'just' run third.
He was able to travel without cover for 600 metres, cross and still run third. If they could not run past him his opposition were either looking for a trip (Mad Rush) or sub-standard (The rest).

Efficient will win the Melbourne Cup easily.

Weight Special

2008 October 20 23:26:13

"No one said she is a dud, just goes to show that her Melb. Cup wins were against sub standard competition. Same goes for when she beat On A Jeune."

So Australia's best 2 miler beat ordinary horses?

Buddy it's a handicap which means lessor horses can run places. That's why they allocate different weights you tool.

"No one said that All The Good is a dud for beating Barbaricus either. We are just saying the quality of the race must have been lacking if a Cranbourne Cup placegetter who couldnt beat Majestical last start runs 3rd."

They ran just outside the track record at Cranbourne and once again it's a handicap and Barbaricus was lightly weighted and in form.

"He was able to travel without cover for 600 metres, cross and still run third."

Horses run 600m without cover and run well every week. Eye Popper was 3 wide without cover for 2400m and ran 2nd you tool.

"Efficient will win the Melbourne Cup easily."

Yeah a horse going up almost 4 kgs against a better field will win easily when he fell in last year. You're a goose 7th beaven.

Last years top 2 in the CC were well beaten this year. This CC was a lot stronger and the MC will be stronger as well.

Last year you had Purple Moon who had a lead up while Mahler didnt.

This year you've got NDJ, Mad Rush and All the Good having lead ups. Then you've got Septimus and Ces't (possibly). The field strength will be 2 lengths better so Efficient has to improve outta sight to beat these with 58kgs. When Diva did it she had the aust cup/bmw and cox plates at WFA. Efficient has no winning form for 12 months and 58kgs. Talk about badly weighted. If he doesnt got close to winning the Cox Plate he's no hope in the MC with 58kgs.

Hitchcock

2008 October 21 00:36:51

Weight Special,

When you put the fact that Efficient is being forced to carry 58kgs here on the back of just two Group 1 wins, you're right, he is terribly weighted in this race.

You are also right that this year's race will be much stronger than last year's race, which was restricted to Melbourne horses and a few internationals.

The Caulfield Cup of that year was much weaker than the Caulfield Cup of this year but, even then, the Caulfield Cup was a much higher quality race than the Melbourne Cup. Its placegetters didn't go anywhere near running out the two mile distance so were rendered ineffective, further weakening the Melbourne Cup.

Leaving aside the internationals for the time being, Australia's second best performed horse in the race was Zipping, who Efficient only beat 3.5 lengths, despite the fact he doesn't run out 3200m and was beaten 6 lengths with 1.5kgs less weight in a real Melbourne Cup the year before.

So Efficient has received 58kgs for winning a weakened G1 handicap and a very weak VRC Derby. Quite outrageous really.

This year will be a high quality Melbourne Cup, albeit with no thanks to the locals and all the thanks to the Europeans and Kiwis, and I don't think, after considering the above facts, that Efficient has a hope in hell with his 58kgs.

In any event, whether or not he ends up proving us wrong on that score is irrelevant to the point that he really has been awfully penalised by the handicapper for what he has done on the track.

Weight Special

2008 October 21 01:11:16

"Leaving aside the internationals for the time being, Australia's second best performed horse in the race was Zipping, who Efficient only beat 3.5 lengths, despite the fact he doesn't run out 3200m and was beaten 6 lengths with 1.5kgs less weight in a real Melbourne Cup the year before."

EXACTLY. The 2006 version was about 4 lengths stronger. The Japanese invaders gapped them.

This years field isnt as strong without them but it's a couple of lengths better than last year's weak field.

If Efficient cant run a huge race in the CP he cant win the MC. Doesnt have the several kilos weight drop/weak field like last year. MC field stronger than the CP this year. Normally it's a few kilos the other way.


Weight Special

2008 October 20 23:19:53

"No one said she is a dud, just goes to show that her Melb. Cup wins were against sub standard competition. Same goes for when she beat On A Jeune."

So Australia's best 2 miler beat ordinary horses?

Buddy it's a handicap which means lessor horses can run places. That's why they allocate different weights you tool.

"No one said that All The Good is a dud for beating Barbaricus either. We are just saying the quality of the race must have been lacking if a Cranbourne Cup placegetter who couldnt beat Majestical last start runs 3rd."

They ran just outside the track record at Cranbourne and once again it's a handicaper ands Barbaricus was lightly weighted and in form.



"He was able to travel without cover for 600 metres, cross and still run third."
w

If they could not run past him his opposition were either looking for a trip (Mad Rush) or sub-standard (The rest).

"Efficient will win the Melbourne Cup easily."

marbine

2008 October 20 13:40:07

Is the penalty a real issue? Please correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't every horse in the CC effectively penalised 1.5kgs (or was it more)anyway with the weights being raised?

With either Septimus and/or Efficient definate starters there will be no weight raises for the MC

Weight Special

2008 October 21 00:01:02

"Is the penalty a real issue? Please correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't every horse in the CC effectively penalised 1.5kgs (or was it more)anyway with the weights being raised?"

wrong u r, meeting horses 2kgs worse from the cc to the mc is not a good thing.




jmf

2008 October 21 00:22:27

I think Barbaricus is a talented horse but his problem seems to be that he will always be there abouts in the finish of a race without winning.

yardsey

2008 October 20 19:57:35

If you listen too people in the know; Lloyd and the Godolphin stable and the rest of the world we should be smashing Septimus. 10 times better than Mad Rush and All be good and look what they did to our stayers. Surely we will get $6 on the day though?

Insom

2008 October 21 00:01:02

"If you listen too people in the know; Lloyd and the Godolphin stable and the rest of the world we should be smashing Septimus. 10 times better than Mad Rush and All be good and look what they did to our stayers. Surely we will get $6 on the day though?"

LOL How many times have we heard this. It's Vinne Row and Media Puzzle all over again. Mad Rush is by far the best of the imports.

Weight Special

2008 October 20 11:25:05

5 of the last 10 winners came thru the CC.
1 Geelong Cup (track record, easy win)
1 Saab (easy win, big weight drop)
1 Mackinnon (big weight drop, easy win)
2 Cox Plate (class race of the year)

Why do people bag the CC?

Why do people still hype europeans with 58-59kgs?

They must have lost a packet in the past.

ManlySeaeagle

2008 October 20 11:19:21

Congrats to the connections of All the Good. Winning any group one is a huge task.

But i've got the feeling that some of the connections didn't want to win that Group one event on saturday (to avoid getting a penalty) ie Efficient 2007.

gab

2008 October 20 10:46:41


Top of the class the two mac's and 7th.

tic

2008 October 19 21:45:00

Sorry Gab--that should read 15 %. Ithink it was one of the strongest CCs that I,ve seen, and IMHO that makes MAD R almost a good thing each way. Fondest regards.

tic

2008 October 19 21:33:31

Agree about 75%. I reckon Mad R was as good a run for the future that I've seen ever !! The worry are the horses who didn't race-- Sept,Hono etc. BUT having watched the replay of the CC many times--slow mo,reverse etc, there WERE several very good runs ( other than the placegetters ) that COULD step up for the MC. FYI they were in order IMO:
MAD R
Ice C
RED R
MOR
VIEWED
Thats a max of 8 from the CC. I,m going to box those surviving in the TRI and FF. Regards--a small insect.

mcgarret

2008 October 19 21:31:20

Terrible race the CC.

Barbaricus says it all.

Septimus will win the big one by panels if Patsy is correct in suggesting that he is in the Vinnie league.

McGarret out

lostclarity

2008 October 19 09:36:30

Good, keep 'em coming. I hope Derby Day delivers more of these deflections from Mad Rush.

You missed the significance of that run ~ you saw a different picture to me. Right up there with the very best Melbourne Cup trials I've seen.

maccamax

2008 October 19 21:23:12

I ask the question ......When the rank outsider can be used up from the widest barrier of all ,, travel 3 and 4 wide before taking over in the sizzling first sectionals and still hold most of them out for 3 rd place.
Does it tell us the whole field hasnt got a lot to offer or that the best run in the race belongs to BARBARICUS>

Tontonan

2008 October 19 23:56:58

You ask tough questions Macca.

The formlines met in the Caulfield Cup - the local, Kiwi and International form. The Hussler was humbled and the local form looks pretty shabby.

Barbaricus ran the race of his life regardless of the opposition. The next best local was Littorio back in fifth.

The AJC Derby form was fully franked - Nom Du Jeu all but won. Red Ruler was an unlucky sixth, Littorio fifth and Guillotine further back.

But the international form was supreme. And if All The Good and Mad Rush are serving it up in the Caulfield Cup, what can we expect of Septimus at Flemington ?

It looks grim, cobbers.

Mr Lister

2008 October 19 20:15:18

I agree with us LC.

nigeltufnel

2008 October 19 17:19:04

Agreed LC; a fantastic trial; although I thought the winner had a couple of bikkies left in the tin, and Nom De Jeu's was a bottling run as well. All three of them may well improve before Flemington too....


Can anything from behind them yesterday improve enough between now and November 4?

I doubt it.

That leaves Lloyd's pair and the rest of the Internationals to challenge as far as I can see.


Nige

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